恐怖袭击的经济影响十分有限
A few days after the assault on Paris, it is hard to name the businesses that were singled out by the terrorists. The public venues — the Bataclan theatre and the Stade de France — are memorable. The cafés and bars of eastern Paris — Le Carillon, Comptoir Voltaire, La Belle Equipe — were not symbolic in themselves. They were simply places for people to gather.
巴黎袭击事件几天之后，人们很难说出恐怖分子专挑哪些商家作案。巴塔克兰剧院(Bataclan theatre)和法兰西体育场(Stade de France)这些公共场所是有纪念意义的场所。至于Le Carillon、Comptoir Voltaire和La Belle Equipe这些巴黎东部的咖啡馆和酒吧，本身并不具有象征意义。它们只是人们聚会的场所。
Nor, despite the terrible bloodshed, have the attacks had a deep physical impact on the fabric of the city. There are broken windows and some bomb damage but Paris otherwise survives largely as before. In terms of disrupting physical infrastructure or the economy — the energy supplies, communications and supply chains of France — Isis might as well not have bothered.
而且，尽管发生了可怕的杀戮事件，这些袭击对这座城市的实体样貌也没有产生深刻影响。确实出现了诸多破碎的窗户及一些炸弹破坏的痕迹，然而巴黎在很大程度上一如往昔。要说破坏实体基础设施或经济（比如法国的能源供应、通信及供应链条），“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)可能也没有这种心思。
Al-Qaeda’s transnational operating model has been compared with global franchising: its brand is adopted by semi-independent groups that organise and carry out their own attacks.
基地组织(al-Qaeda)的跨国运作模式，曾被拿来与全球特许经营模式相比较：其品牌被半独立的组织采用，后者会组织和实施自己的恐怖袭击。
To judge by Paris, Isis prefers to outsource. From its supply chain of military-grade weapons to cross-border planning of explosions, it is a multi-national. “Designed in Syria. Manufactured in Belgium” could be its slogan. Yet the economic impact of Islamist terrorists, who are obsessed with causing as many deaths as possible, is usually minimal apart from on tourism and travel. The attacks of September 11 2001 had little long-term effect after the initial $90bn [OR $83BN?]of damage. The 2008 financial crisis and the 2011 Japanese earthquake, which disrupted global supply chains, were more powerful.
从巴黎的情形看，ISIS宁愿采取外包的方式。从其军用级武器的供应链条，再到爆炸事件的跨境策划，都说明它是个跨国组织。它的口号或许是“叙利亚设计，比利时制造”。然而，尽管伊斯兰恐怖分子执迷于制造尽可能多的死亡，除了旅游观光以外，他们对经济的影响通常很小。比如，在起初的900亿美元损失之后，2001年9月11日的恐怖袭击几乎没导致什么长期影响。相比之下，2008年金融危机和2011年日本的地震则破坏了全球供应链条，它们的影响更大一些。
The Paris death toll was high but its financial reach was less even than an accidental explosion at a German chemical plant in 2012. That killed two workers and halted the production of a resin used in brake and fuel parts, which in turn inflicted supply shortages on US and European carmakers.
巴黎事件的死亡人数很高，但是其在经济上的影响甚至还不如2012年德国一家化工厂的爆炸事故。那次事故导致两名员工丧生，并造成一种用于刹车部件和燃料部件的树脂停产，这又导致了欧美汽车制造商的供应短缺。
For this reason alone, French President Hollande’s talk of war on Isis is misguided. Isis has formed a state within Syria and Iraq by controlling the oil industry inside its territories, but its cross-border brand of terrorism is not warlike. Killing people is terrifying but is insufficient in war: you must destroy infrastructure and degrade supplies, as the Nazis did in the 1940s by bombing the east London docks.
只从这个意义上说，法国总统弗朗索瓦攠朗德( Hollande)有关ISIS战争行为的说法有误导性。通过控制其领地内的石油产业，ISIS在叙利亚和伊拉克内建立了一个国家，然而其跨境恐怖主义活动的模式却不像战争。杀害平民是很恐怖，但还不足以看作战争：只有像纳粹在1940年代轰炸伦敦东部码头那样，破坏对方基础设施并消解其供应链条才算是战争行为。
Islamist terrorism, which in the mid-1990s overtook leftist forms of insurrection in which industries and business leaders were often primary targets, does not do that[EVEN EG LIBYAN MILITANTS DESTROYING OIL WELLS?]. It attempts to encourage a clash of civilisations by fomenting terror in what Isis calls “the grey zone” — the millions of people who do not want to be trapped in a caliphate and prefer to enjoy their liberty elsewhere. Beneath the scathing rhetoric about “targeting the capital of prostitution and vice” in Paris, Isis recognises a reality: that it would like to destroy the French economy but it cannot.
伊斯兰恐怖主义并不存在上述行为。1990年代中期，它的影响力超过了左派组织的暴动形式，后者往往以行业和企业领导人为主要目标。伊斯兰恐怖主义试图通过在被ISIS称为“灰色地带”的人群（指那些不想深陷哈里发之中、更愿意在其他地方享受自由的无数人们）中引发恐怖，煽动起一种文明的冲突。在所谓“以（巴黎这个）淫荡和邪恶之都为目标”的尖刻措辞之下，ISIS承认了这样一个现实：它想要破坏法国经济却无法做到。
As Todd Sandler, a professor at the University of Texas who studies the economic effects of terrorism, says: “They can scare the heck out of us but they do not seem to have much economic impact.”
正如研究恐怖主义经济影响的德克萨斯大学(University of Texas)教授托德儠德勒(Todd Sandler)所说的：“它们能把我们吓得魂不附体，但似乎不会产生多少经济上的影响。”
It is partly a matter of scale. Most terrorist attacks, even those in Paris, are small and localised: if you do not happen to be nearby at the time, you are not in danger. It also reflects the resilience of diversified modern economies. There are some choke points in power and communications infrastructure but most are well guarded — the soft terrorist targets are less financially critical.
这在一定程度上是规模的问题。多数恐怖袭击——即使是巴黎发生的恐怖袭击——规模都很小，范围也局限在当地：只要你不是碰巧当时在附近，你就不会遇到危险。此外，它还反映了多元化现代经济的强韧性。电力和通信基础设施中存在一些咽喉点，不过它们中的多数都受到了严密防卫，而防卫松懈的恐袭目标则在经济上没有那么重要。
“Companies may suffer but industries as a whole are very robust,” says Yossi Sheffi, professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In order to create long-term damage, terrorism has to be sustained, focused and targeted at a small area. The output of Spain’s Basque region was estimated to have been reduced by 10 percentage points by a 20-year separatist campaign — much of it, unlike with Islamist terrorism, aimed at industrial targets.
麻省理工学院(MIT)教授约西∠菲(Yossi Sheffi)表示：“企业也许会受到影响，行业整体则是十分健壮的。”要想产生长期破坏，恐怖主义者必须长期持续、集中精力、并把目标集中于小范围内。据估计，为期20年的分裂运动令西班牙巴斯克区的产出减少了10%。而与伊斯兰恐怖主义活动不同，这些分裂分子的活动中许多都对准了工业目标。
The Paris attacks may dent France’s economy and those of other European countries if governments respond — as some are threatening to — by reinstating border controls and weakening the Schengen agreement that allows free movement of people and goods. Citigroup economists warned this week of “a growing backlash against a key element of globalisation”.
对于巴黎的恐怖袭击，若各国政府的回应是恢复边境管制并弱化允许人员与商品自由迁移的申根协定——就像部分政府威胁的那样，那么它也许会影响法国以及其他欧洲国家的经济。就在本周，花旗集团(Citigroup)经济学家警告“全球化一个关键要素遭到越来越大的反对”。
Isis would welcome it as an economic side effect of its religious offensive but it is not a given. Attacks such as that on the World Trade Center and the Madrid train bombings of 2004 did not curtail growth in global trade. The damping of trade growth, which dropped to 3 per cent in 2013 compared with an average of 7.1 per cent growth between 1987 and 2007, has other causes.
ISIS或许会欢迎其宗教攻势在经济上的副作用，但是这种副作用并不是确定无疑的。类似对世贸中心(WTC)的袭击和2004年马德里火车爆炸案那样的袭击事件，并未削弱全球贸易的增长。全球贸易增长率从1987年到2007年期间的平均7.1%跌至2013年的3%别有原因。
The most significant, according to one International Monetary Fund study, is a levelling in supply chain fragmentation and the “back and forth” of industrial components after a prolonged growth in outsourcing of US and European manufacturing to China and Asia. Globalisation paused not because of terrorism or trade protectionism but because it had reached limits.
根据一项国际货币基金组织(IMF)的研究，最重要的原因是在欧美制造业向中国和亚洲的外包经历长期增长之后，分散的供应链以及工业部件的“来来往往”进入平台期。全球化暂时停顿，不是由于恐怖主义或贸易保护主义，而是由于全球化已达到极限。
Terrorism has its own logic. It fosters fear far in excess of the danger it presents and is a marketing campaign for recruits. It does what its planners want. But set against natural events such as earthquakes, and the ebb and flow of industry and trade, even large attacks are economically minor.
恐怖主义有自身的运作逻辑。它激起的恐惧远远超过它所带来的危险，它也是一种招募新人的营销手段。它的策划者想要的正是这些。不过，如果和地震等自然灾害、以及工业和贸易的潮起潮落比起来，即使是大规模的恐怖袭击，经济上的影响也是微不足道的。
It is hard to keep in mind when faced with atrocities but it is the reality. Many Parisians fell but Paris stands.
面临暴行的时候人们很难这么去想，但现实就是这样。暴行让许多巴黎人倒下了，而巴黎却依然屹立不倒。
