普京的叙利亚阿勒颇的棋局

News that Syrian rebel factions are negotiating with Russia in Turkey to relieve the siege of eastern Aleppo highlights a Middle East-wide trend whereby leading actors are looking to Moscow instead of the US. It also underlines the extent to which Bashar al-Assad, the improbable survivor of almost six years of civil war, is a pawn of his Russian and Iranian patrons.

有消息称，叙利亚叛军正在与俄罗斯在土耳其谈判，以解除其在阿勒颇(Aleppo)东部地区受到的围攻，这突显出整个中东地区的一个趋势——主要国家转向俄罗斯而非美国求助。它还表明在近6年内战中令人不可思议地活下来的巴沙尔.阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)，在多大程度上成为了俄罗斯和伊朗的马前卒。

Syria has been centre stage in President Vladimir Putin’s reassertion of Russian influence in the Middle East, after his air force arrived in September last year to save the Assad regime. Since then, ferocious Russian bombing and the siege of rebel enclaves, alongside a string of offensives spearheaded by Lebanese, Iraqi and Afghan Shia fighters deployed by Iranian revolutionary guards, have expanded the rump state to defensible perimeters.

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔.普京(Vladimir Putin)希望重获俄罗斯在中东地区的影响力，在他去年9月派俄罗斯空军前往叙利亚解救阿萨德政权之后，叙利亚就处于这种努力的核心。自那以来，俄罗斯对叛军占据的地区进行了猛烈的轰炸和围困，再加上由伊朗革命卫队部署的黎巴嫩、伊拉克和阿富汗什叶派武装人员带头发起了一系列攻势，使阿萨德政府所剩地盘扩大到能够抵御进攻的边界。

But Mr Putin has to think of what happens after the fall of rebel Aleppo. Russia has reached beyond tactical sallies against US hegemony in the Middle East and is reacquiring the onerous obligations of great power-dom.

但普京不得不考虑在攻占叛军占领的阿勒颇之后将会出现的情况。俄罗斯不仅仅在战术上对美国在中东地区的霸主地位发起了攻击，它还在重新承担起与大国地位相伴随的艰巨责任。

It is beyond dispute that US influence has declined in a region where it was long considered axiomatic that not a leaf stirred but Washington had decreed it. This began in 2003 with President George W Bush’s misconceived invasion and occupation of Iraq, a pitilessly public display of the limits of US power. It was accelerated by President Barack Obama’s tendency to shy away from admittedly hard choices, notoriously when in 2013 he backed off from punishing the Assad regime, after it crossed his “red line” and used nerve gas against civilians.

毋庸置疑，美国在中东地区的影响力下降了——人们曾长期认为，中东处于美国的掌控之下。美国影响力下降开始于2003年乔治.W.布什(George W. Bush)欠考虑地入侵并占领伊拉克，从而无情地公开暴露出美国实力有限。巴拉克.奥巴马(Barack Obama)则加速了美国影响力的下降，他往往回避那些确实很艰难的抉择，尤其是在2013年阿萨德政权跨过他设置的“红线”、使用神经毒气对付平民之后，没有对之进行惩罚。

Anyone with aspirations to being a player in the Middle East now beats a path to Mr Putin. The list is replete with Washington’s historic allies: Israel and Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Russia has forged working links with Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s irredentist prime minister, and Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, the military strongman who took power from Islamists in Egypt.

所有有意在中东地区有所作为的国家现在都纷纷转向普京求助。这些国家不乏华盛顿在历史上的盟友：以色列和埃及、土耳其和沙特。俄罗斯加强了与以色列总理本雅明.内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)和埃及总统阿卜杜勒.法塔赫.塞西(Abdel Fattah al-Sisi)的工作联系，前者奉行民族统一主义，后者是从伊斯兰主义者手里夺取了政权的军事强人。

He has mended fences with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, president and paramount leader of Nato ally Turkey, and built a functioning relationship with Mohammed bin Salman, the young prince who in effect runs Saudi Arabia. Russia has also cultivated local factions. Khalifa Haftar, the Libyan general who controls the east of his fractured country, was just in Moscow. Mohammed Dahlan, the Abu Dhabi-based former Palestinian security chief with controversial international links, sees Mr Putin regularly.

他修复了与北约盟友土耳其的总统、最高领导人雷杰普.塔伊普.埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)的关系，并与沙特的实际掌权人、年轻的王储穆罕默德.本.萨勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)建立了运转良好的关系。俄罗斯还扶植当地势力。控制着军阀割据的利比亚的东部地区的将军哈利法.哈夫塔尔(Khalifa Haftar)上周二刚刚访问了莫斯科。居住在阿布扎比、国际关系存在争议的前巴勒斯坦安全事务部长穆罕默德.达赫兰(Mohammed Dahlan)定期与普京见面。

But it is doubtful whether the Kremlin can partner simultaneously with Sunni and Shia, or with Turkey, Iran and Israel, in a region where it has rarely been more than a spoiler. Intrigue is rarely straightforward. Turkey, for example, says Mohammed Dahlan was in cahoots with the Islamist followers of Fethullah Gulen, the US-based preacher Ankara blames for the abortive military putsch in July.

但在俄罗斯过去只不过是一个搅局者的中东，它能否同时与逊尼派和什叶派、或者同时与土耳其、伊朗和以色列合作，存在疑问。中东地区阴谋诡谲。例如，土耳其表示，穆罕默德.达赫兰与费特胡拉.居伦(Fethullah Gulen)的伊斯兰追随者勾结。居伦是居住在美国的流亡神职人员，土耳其指其策划了今年7月未遂的军事政变。

This is not the first time Russia has sat down with Syrian rebels and its willingness to do so again, on the verge of victory in Aleppo, may point to a new pragmatism. The Assad regime is dependent on Russian air power and Iran-marshalled foreign fighters. It simply does not have the manpower to police its post-Aleppo borders.

这并非俄罗斯首次与叙利亚叛军坐下来谈判，它在阿勒颇战斗即将胜利之际再次愿意谈判，可能表明了新的务实主义。阿萨德政权依赖俄罗斯空军和伊朗组织的外国士兵。它根本没有人力维持阿勒颇战斗结束后的边界治安。

Mr Assad’s minority supporters have paid a heavy price to keep his clan in power, but it is increasingly others who are doing the fighting and dying. Iran has just admitted it has lost 1,000 combatants fighting for his regime; Hizbollah is thought to have lost more. Can this kind of external commitment be open-ended, or will Moscow and Tehran use their power over Mr Assad to push him towards compromise?

阿萨德的少数支持者为维持其家族掌权付出了沉重代价，但为其战斗和死亡的越来越多是其他人。伊朗刚刚承认，已有1000名士兵为阿萨德政权牺牲。据信真主党(Hizbollah)的死亡人数更多。这种外部承诺是无限的吗？或者莫斯科和德黑兰会向阿萨德施压、迫使他妥协吗？

An early signal would be if Russia forces the Assads to agree to the UN’s four-point humanitarian aid plan for Aleppo, allowing food and medicine to enter the stricken city and the evacuation of the sick and wounded. The armed groups have already signed.

一个早期信号将是，俄罗斯是否迫使阿萨德同意联合国提出的阿勒颇四点人道主义援助计划，允许食品和药品进入战火纷飞的阿勒颇，并让病患伤者撤离。武装组织已经签署了协议。