世界移动通信大会聚焦5G前景

Barcelona in late February is a hunting ground for pickpockets, for it is there that members of the telecoms industry annually convene to show off their latest wares, some of which still have yet to be announced.

2月底的巴塞罗那是小偷的猎场，因为电信行业人士在这里召开年度会议，展示它们的最新产品，其中一些迄今仍未对外宣布。

About 100,000 people will attend Mobile World Congress this year. Delegates will come from all sectors of the industry, including makers of the base stations that transmit phone signals, producers of the mobile devices that receive them and developers who make the apps that phones depend on.

今年的世界移动通信大会(Mobile World Congress)预计将有10万人参加。代表们来自通信行业的各个领域，包括手机信号基站的建造商、移动设备的制造商以及手机应用程序的开发商。

High on the industry agenda is 5G, a network technology that aims to make data communication speeds significantly faster than its predecessor, 4G. Mats Granryd, director-general of the industry body GSMA, which organises the conference, says: “We will move away from being vague on the prospects of 5G this year to concrete proposals.”

行业议程上的一个重要议题是5G，这是一种旨在让数据通讯速度远超4G的网络技术。主办此次大会的行业组织——全球移动通信系统协会(GSMA)的总干事马茨?格兰吕德(Mats Granryd)表示：“今年我们将不再对5G前景模糊不清，而是会有具体的建议。”

There could be up to 200 launches of so-called 5G-lite by carriers this year as they prepare for its arrival in 2019.

今年运营商可能发布多达200个所谓的准5G产品，为2019年5G的最终来临做准备。

The coming of a faster network has been hailed as a possible boost for the telecoms sector, with Asian, US and European governments vying to take a lead in the new technology.

更快速网络的来临被认为有望提振电信行业，目前亚洲、美国和欧洲各国政府都想在这种新技术上占据领先地位。

A survey from UK telecoms company O2 predicts national 5G coverage would directly contribute an additional ￡7bn a year to Britain’s economy by 2026 and that the economic impact will be felt almost twice as quickly as that of fibre broadband, first tested by BT in 2009.

英国电信公司O2在一项调查报告中预测，到2026年，全国性的5G网络覆盖每年将会直接让英国经济规模额外增加70亿英镑，而且5G技术产生经济影响的速度将几乎是光纤宽带的两倍——英国电信(BT)在2009年首次试验了光纤宽带。

Network equipment makers at Mobile World Congress will try to deliver on the promise of a fully digital and constantly connected society. But the utopian vision of 5G has led some to question whether it will deliver all the services and economic benefits being promised, particularly as squeezed telecoms companies are as yet unwilling to stump up the projected funds to build the networks. These could cost Euro56bn in Europe alone.

出席世界移动通信大会的网络设备制造商们将努力兑现“打造完全数字化、时时互联的社会”的承诺。但5G的乌托邦色彩使得一些人质疑它能否带来承诺的所有服务和经济利益，何况陷入困境的电信公司迄今仍不愿拨出预估的资金来建造网络。仅在欧洲，建造这些网络的成本就高达560亿欧元。

One analyst quipped in the conference run-up that no network technology has been so talked about so early in the cycle. “That might be because there isn’t much else to talk about,” he says.

一位分析师在大会前夕讽刺地说道，没有哪种网络技术在这么早的阶段受到如此热议。他说：“这可能是因为别的没有什么可说的。”

Nokia will get in on the 5G act as the network equipment maker vies with Ericsson and Huawei to win orders for the new technology. However, the Nokia brand will also return to the consumer smartphone market for the first time in three and the half years since Microsoft bought its handset business.

诺基亚(Nokia)将寻求在5G领域分一杯羹，这家网络设备制造商与爱立信(Ericsson)和华为(Huawei)展开竞争，争夺新技术的订单。然而，诺基亚品牌也将重回消费者智能手机市场，这将是自3年半前微软(Microsoft)收购其手机业务以来的首次。

Some are confident the new Android-based range — made by Finnish company HMD — will become a force to reckon with. New BlackBerry devices, made under licence by third parties, will also come to market, despite the Canadian company signalling it would exit the sector last year. Others think Samsung’s woes with its exploding Galaxy Note 7 last year could let them in. Hopefuls include second-tier makers LG with its G6, and Huawei with its P10.

一些人确信，诺基亚基于安卓操作系统的新产品——由芬兰公司HMD制造——将不容小觑。授权第三方制造的新黑莓(BlackBerry)设备也将投放市场，尽管这家加拿大公司去年暗示将退出这一领域。其他人认为，三星(Samsung)去年旗下产品Galaxy Note 7频繁爆炸问题可能给了它们机会。有希望取得成功的公司包括推出G6的二线制造商LG以及推出P10的华为。

Such products could attract hungry buyers. Professional services group Accenture, which surveyed 26,000 consumers worldwide, found 54 per cent planned to buy a new smartphone this year, with especially high numbers of possible customers in India and China.

这些产品可能吸引饥渴的买家。专业服务集团埃森哲(Accenture)对全世界的2.6万名消费者进行了调查，发现54%的消费者今年计划购买新的智能手机，印度和中国的潜在消费者尤其多。

That is welcome news for a market in which growth in 2016 slowed to 5 per cent from the 14 per cent posted a year before, according to research company Gartner. It also puts pressure on device makers to swim against the tide of what CCS Insight analyst Ben Wood calls the “sea of sameness”. As the Android software operating system underpins 82 per cent of smartphones sold, differentiation is difficult.

这在市场增长放缓之际是个可喜的好消息——高德纳(Gartner)的数据显示，智能手机市场2016年增长率从前一年的14%放缓至5%。这也给设备制造商们带来压力，它们要在CCS Insight分析师本?伍德(Ben Wood)所称的“雷同之海”中逆流前进。由于市面上销售的83%智能手机是安卓操作系统支持的，实现差异化非常困难。

David Sovie, global managing director for Accenture’s electronics and high-tech business unit, says features such as voice control should help sales. “Growing acceptance of services powered by artificial intelligence, such as voice assistants, is also fuelling this market upswing,” he says.

埃森哲(Accenture)电子和高科技业务部全球总经理大卫?苏维(David Sovie)表示，语音控制等功能应有助于销售。他说：“语音助理等采用人工智能技术的服务越来越获认可，也让这个市场更加兴旺。”

The coming of 5G is likely to be the dominant conference talking point, even though the reality for many people around the world is that such a debate masks a daily struggle to get any sort of connection at all. Telecoms companies have started to discuss solutions, such as flying drones, or helikites, being deployed in remote areas of developed countries to deliver mobile broadband to spots land-based masts cannot reach.

5G的来临可能成为此次大会热点话题，不过实际上对于世界上的许多人来说，这种讨论掩盖了他们日常难以获得任何一种连接的问题。电信公司已经开始讨论解决方案，例如在发达国家偏远地区部署无人机或氦风筝(helikites)，将移动宽带传送到无法修建陆地信号塔的地方。

It is yet to be seen whether those people who object to brutalist mobile phone masts spoiling the countryside will welcome War of the Worlds-style drones, or if the promise of blanket coverage will be enough to keep complainers quiet.

有些人反对修建手机信号塔，认为这种粗野建筑会破坏乡村面貌，这些人是否会欢迎《世界大战》(War of the Worlds)式的无人机，或者地毯式覆盖的承诺是否足以让那些抱怨的人闭嘴，还都有待观察。

The problem is more acute in the developing world, where connecting the unconnected remains a perennial difficulty. Facebook’s plans to deliver broadband across Africa suffered a setback last year when the SpaceX rocket carrying its $200m satellite exploded on the launch pad. The failure showed that delivering the latest in telecoms infrastructure is both expensive and tricky.

这个问题在发展中国家更严峻，在这些地区，“让无法连接上网的人都能连接上网”仍是长期难题。去年SpaceX一枚载着价值2亿美元卫星的火箭在发射台爆炸，令Facebook向整个非洲提供宽带的计划遇挫。这一失败表明，发展最新的电信基础设施是一件成本高昂且棘手的工作。

Paul Lee, head of technology, media and telecommunications research at professional services provider Deloitte, says: “The world is getting more connected, but there are still billions to connect. Mobile connections are approaching the 5bn mark. So there are still over 2bn to go. There are also varying degrees of quality of connectivity. There are some 200 carriers yet to launch 4G services, but we are likely to see some operators launch 5G services this year.”

德勤(Deloitte)的技术、媒体与电信研究主管保罗?李(Paul Lee)说：“世界正变得更加互连，但仍有数十亿人还无法连接。移动连接已接近50亿大关，因此还有20多亿人仍未实现连接。而且连接质量存在差异。目前大约还有200家运营商尚未推出4G服务，可我们今年就会看到一些运营商推出5G服务。”

This is not just a problem in remote places. More than 1m UK homes and businesses have what are deemed to be slow broadband access speeds, while 4G coverage is patchy even in cities. According to data from OpenSignal, a wireless company, the UK, once a pioneer in the mobile industry, now ranks 54th in global rankings of 4G coverage. “There is massive variation in mobile speed,” says Deloitte’s Mr Lee.

这不仅是偏远地区才会有的问题。超过100万英国家庭和企业的宽带接入速度被认为是缓慢的，而4G覆盖即使在城市也分布不均。根据无线公司OpenSignal的数据，作为移动行业曾经的先驱，英国如今在全球4G覆盖排名中名列第54位。保罗?李说：“移动上网速度有着巨大差异。”

The GSMA’s Mr Granryd argues that pushing mobile data to more places is the “nuclear reactor” for improving people’s lives. The demand for portable “electronic money” so people can use phones to withdraw or transfer funds, for instance, has strongly taken hold in emerging markets where many have not had access to traditional banks. These have caught up with contactless wave-and-pay technologies available to bank card and phone users in countries such as the US and UK. There are about 500m mobile money users across 93 countries, mostly in Africa and Asia.

格兰吕德认为，将移动数据推广到更多地方是改善人们生活的“核反应堆”。例如，对便携式“电子货币”的需求在新兴市场已经根深蒂固，人们用手机就能取钱或转账，而在新兴市场许多人不使用传统银行的服务。这些支付技术已经赶上了美英等国银行卡或手机用户所使用的非接触式感应支付(wave-and-pay)技术。全球大约有5亿名移动货币(mobile money)用户，分布在93个国家，主要是非洲和亚洲的国家。

Christophe Uzureau, vice-president of banking and investment services at Gartner, says mobile finance has evolved rapidly. Different models have emerged but the most advanced, such as Alibaba’s Alipay in China, have added benefits, like assisting Chinese tourists with the processing of international payments. This evolution goes hand-in-hand with improved connectivity.

高德纳银行和投资服务副总裁克里斯托夫?乌聚罗(Christophe Uzureau)表示，移动金融发展迅速。如今已经出现了多种不同的模式，而最先进的模式带来了诸多好处——例如中国阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的支付宝(Alipay)——比如协助中国游客处理国际支付。这种进步与连接性的提高紧密相连。

The advent of 5G could accelerate development of digital services. But the GSMA says the industry also has to focus on the provision of more relevant local content if mobile is to blossom. As Mr Granryd points out, only 0.1 per cent of India’s web pages are in Hindi while more than 400m people speak the language. Hauling up masts alone will not be enough to make 5G a global success.

5G问世将可加快数字化服务的发展。但GSMA表示要使移动技术兴旺发展，该行业还必须致力于提供更接地气的本地内容。正如格兰吕德指出的，印度只有0.1%的网页使用印地语，而当地超过4亿人讲这种语言。只建信号塔不足以让5G在全球取得成功。