2050世界展望:中国成为世界最大经济体?

It's barely 2011 but Karen Ward at HSBC is looking ahead what the world will look like in the middle of the century. By 2050, China is predicted to have overtaken the U.S. to become the world's largest economy. India is forecast to be in third place, followed by Japan. Nineteen of the top 30 will be today's 'emerging economies,' which will collectively be bigger than the developed world。

How does Europe look？Ms. Ward puts Germany in fifth place, and on its heels in sixth, the U.K., both one slot lower than today. France is down three slots in ninth, under Brazil and Mexico. Italy is down four places in 11th, below Canada and just ahead of Turkey. Spain is down two places, to 14th, below South Korea and just ahead of Russia。

China's annual economic output by 2050 is forecast to reach $24.6 trillion (in 2000 dollars)， the U.S. $22.3 trillion, India $8.2 trillion, Japan $6.4 trillion, Germany $3.7 trillion and the U.K. $3.6 trillion. France is a $2.8 trillion economy and Italy a $2.2 trillion one。

Why does the U.K. do relatively well？A good part of the answer is demographics, a factor that helps the U.S. too. By 2050, the U.K. will have 72 million people, compared with Germany's 71 million and France's 68 million, the forecast suggests。

She adds: 'The small-population, ageing, rich economies in Europe are the big losers. Switzerland and the Netherlands slip down the grid significantly, and Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Norway and Denmark drop out of our Top 30 altogether.'

Of course, that doesn't make them poor. The Netherlands, down eight places as the world's 23rd economy, is predicted to have per capita income of $46,000 (in 2000 dollars)， compared with just over $26,000 today. Switzerland's 9 million people are forecast to enjoy an average income of $84,000, compared with $39,000 today. China's 1.4 billion people are forecast to have income of $17,000 per head, compared with $2,400.

The calculations assume continuing open borders and no major wars or natural disasters. They are based on three determinants, drawing from the work of Harvard University's Robert Barro: the starting level of per capita income; human capital, which relates to levels of education, health and fertility; and economic governance, which refers to the variables such as the degree of monetary stability, property rights, democracy, the rule of law and government size。眼下才刚刚迈入2011年，汇丰银行(HSBC)的高级全球经济学家沃德(Karen Ward)就开始展望本世纪中叶的世界将是怎样一种情形。在沃德的预测中，到2050年时，中国将取代美国，成为世界上最大的经济体。印度将位列第三，日本紧随其后。届时前30大经济体中将有19个是今天的“新兴经济体”，它们的经济规模总和将超过发达国家世界。　　欧洲的情况将会如何？沃德预测德国将位居第五，英国则占据第六的位置，两个国家的排名均比目前低一位。法国下滑三位，来到第九，位于巴西和墨西哥之后。意大利下滑四位，名列第11，落后于加拿大，仅在土耳其之前。西班牙滑落两位，至第14，落后于韩国，仅仅领先于俄罗斯。

预计到2050年时中国经济的年产值将达到24.6万亿美元(以2000年时的美元汇率计算)，美国为22.3万亿美元，印度8.2万亿美元，日本6.4万亿美元，德国和英国分别为3.7万亿和3.6万亿美元。法国和意大利的经济规模分别将达到2.8万亿和2.2万亿美元。

为什么英国的表现相对不错呢？很大一部分答案来自人口统计学，这一因素也帮助了美国。沃德的预测显示，到2050年时，英国将拥有7200万人口，相比之下德国和法国的人口数为7100万和6800万。

她还说，那些人口数量少、老龄化且富裕的欧洲经济体是排名下降比较大的。瑞士和荷兰的排位大幅下滑，而瑞典、比利时、奥地利、挪威和丹麦甚至统统跌出了所预测的前30名之外。

当然，这并没有使它们变穷。荷兰虽然下滑八位，在世界经济体中排名第23，但其人均收入预计将达到46,000美元(以2000年时的美元汇率计算)，目前荷兰的人均收入仅略高于26,000美元。拥有900万人口的瑞士的人均收入预计将达到84,000美元，目前为39,000美元。预计中国14亿人口的人均收入将从目前的2,400美元增至17,000美元。

这些计算依据的前提是假定边界持续开放、不爆发大的战争或是出现严重自然灾害。上述计算以三个决定因素为基础，这些因素来源于哈佛大学罗伯特·巴罗(Robert Barro)的著作：人均收入的起始水平；人力资本，这涉及教育、健康及繁育水平；经济治理，这是指一些可变因素，如金融体系的稳定性程度、产权、民主、法制以及政府规模。据《华尔街日报》