超越欧元区 中国银行体系成为世界最大

China’s banking system has surpassed that of the eurozone to become the world’s largest by assets, a sign both of the country’s increased influence in world finance and its reliance on debt to drive growth since the global financial crisis.

中国的银行体系已经超越欧元区，成为世界上按资产排列最大的银行体系，这个迹象既表明中国对世界金融的影响力增加，也表明自全球金融危机以来中国对债务驱动增长的依赖。

While China’s gross domestic product surpassed the EU’s economic bloc in 2011 at market exchange rates, its banking system did not take over the top spot until the end of 2016, Financial Times analysis shows.

英国《金融时报》分析显示，虽然中国的国内生产总值(GDP)在2011年按市场汇率计算已经超越了欧盟的经济集团，但是它的银行体系一直到2016年底才超越后者。

The lag reflects Beijing’s increased “financial deepening” — the term for the growth of a country’s financial system relative to gross domestic product. This has been fuelled by an extraordinary increase in bank lending since 2008, when the government unleashed aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus to buffer the impact of the global crisis.

这个滞后反映了中国的“金融深化”（描述一国金融体系相对于GDP的发展）有所推进。自2008年以来，随着中国政府出台积极的货币和财政刺激措施以缓冲全球危机的影响，银行贷款出现不寻常的大幅增长，推动了这一进程。

“The massive size of China’s banking system is less a cause for celebration than a sign of an economy overly dependent on bank-financed investment, beset by inefficient resource allocation, and subject to enormous credit risks,” said Eswar Prasad, economist at Cornell University and former China head of the International Monetary Fund.

“中国银行体系规模庞大与其说是一件值得欢呼的事情，不如说是一个迹象，表明经济过度依赖银行融资的投资，资源配置效率低下，而且面临巨大的信用风险，”美国康奈尔大学(Cornell University)经济学家、曾经担任国际货币基金组织(IMF)中国部负责人的埃斯瓦尔?普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示。

Chinese bank assets hit $33tn at the end of 2016, versus $31tn for the eurozone, $16tn for the US and $7tn for Japan. The value of China’s banking system is more than 3.1 times the size of the country’s annual economic output, compared with 2.8 times for the eurozone and its banks.

中国银行业的总资产在2016年底达到33万亿美元，而欧元区为31万亿美元，美国为16万亿美元，日本为7万亿美元。中国银行体系的价值是该国年经济产出规模的3.1倍，而欧元区银行的价值是其年度经济产出的2.8倍。

World leaders and economists lauded China’s stimulus at the time for helping to stabilise global growth at a time when developed countries were deep in recession. Now, however, the stimulus is seen as leading to significant wasteful investment, industrial overcapacity and dangerous debt levels.

当初世界各国领导人和经济学家赞赏中国的刺激措施，称其在发达国家深陷衰退之时帮助稳定了全球增长。然而，现在这些刺激措施被视为导致了显著的浪费投资、工业产能过剩和危险的债务水平。

Analysts note that unlike in developed markets, Chinese local governments have relied heavily on bank loans to finance infrastructure. Unlisted, state-owned policy banks — notably China Development Bank, with assets of more than $2tn — play a central role, while commercial banks also participate.

分析师们指出，与发达市场不同，中国地方政府大量依赖银行贷款为基础设施项目融资。非上市的国有政策银行——特别是资产超过2万亿美元的国家开发银行(CDB)——起着中心作用，同时商业银行也参与其中。

“There’s a lot of hidden sovereign credit within the corporate loans on bank balance sheets, which can distort the picture when you do a cross-country comparison,” said Hou Wei, China banks analyst at Sanford C Bernstein in Hong Kong. “In most other markets, governments just borrow directly from capital markets. In China, it’s a unique situation.”

“银行资产负债表上的公司贷款中有大量隐藏的主权信用，这可能会扭曲你的跨国比较，”桑福德?C?伯恩斯坦公司(Sanford C Bernstein)驻香港的中国银行业分析师侯伟（音）表示。“在其他多数市场，政府只是直接从资本市场借款。中国的情况是独特的。”

But in other respects, the headline figures understate the true scale of Chinese banks. Shadow banking has exploded since 2010. While ostensibly off-balance-sheet, most of this credit remains closely linked to commercial banks. The central bank warned last month that the distinction between on- and off-balance-sheet assets is often hazy due to the prevalence of implicit guarantees. Banks have frequently provided bailouts for off-balance-sheet products, even where no legal obligation exists.

但在其他方面，标题数字低估了中国银行业的真实规模。自2010年以来，影子银行业出现了爆炸性增长。尽管表面上看这些信贷是表外的，但它们中的大部分仍与商业银行密切相关。中国央行上月警告称，由于隐性担保的普遍存在，表内和表外资产的区别往往是模糊的。即使不存在法律义务，银行也经常为表外产品提供纾困。

In recent weeks, top leaders have signalled that they intend to shift policy focus away from stimulus towards risk control. But concrete action is still lacking. The flow of broad credit hit a new record in January.

最近几周，高层领导人已发出信号表示，他们打算将政策焦点从刺激转向风险控制。但具体措施至今没有出炉。1月的广义信贷流量创下新纪录。

In addition to controlling overall debt growth, economists say more developed capital markets can help diversify China’s financial system away from banks. The heavy reliance on banks is partly the result of tight regulation of stock and bond issuance. For the Communist party, however, a more diversified financial system reduces its ability to manage money flows.

除了控制总体债务增长外，经济学家们表示，更发达的资本市场将有助于中国金融体系多样化，减轻对银行的依赖。在一定程度上，对银行的严重依赖是由于股票和债券发行受到严格监管的结果。然而，对共产党来说，一个更加多样化的金融体系将削弱其管理资金流动的能力。

“The Chinese government’s ambivalent approach to financial markets — seeing them as a useful resource-allocation mechanism but unwilling to let them operate freely, with the ostensible aim of maintaining stability and control — has often added to market volatility and made them less efficient,” said Mr Prasad.

“中国政府对金融市场的矛盾态度（既把它们视为一种有用的资源分配机制，又出于维持稳定和控制这一表面目标，不愿意让它们自由运转），往往增加了市场的波动性，降低了市场效率，”康奈尔大学的普拉萨德表示。