“俄罗斯黑客门”最新波折的五大看点

We are long past the point where the story of Donald Trump became stranger and more lurid than a Hollywood movie. Tuesday brought a fresh and astonishing twist: the news that the US intelligence agencies have briefed both the president and the president-elect on a series of damaging allegations made against Mr Trump. The document containing the allegations has been published, so they are now common knowledge. Here are five points to bear in mind, when considering this news.

唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)的故事比好莱坞电影的情节更加奇葩、更加耸人听闻——这一点早已不是新闻。周二出现了一个新鲜和令人惊愕的情节转折：有报道称，美国情报机构向总统和当选总统两人都通报了一连串不利于特朗普的指控。相关文件包含的具体指控已经发表，因此它们现在已经人尽皆知。以下是消化这条消息时值得记住的五个要点。

1. The two most damaging allegations are that there was illicit communication between the Trump campaign and the Russian government and that the Russians have compromising material on bizarre sexual behaviour by Mr Trump. These allegations have been circulating among many news organisations (including the Financial Times) for weeks. But, until now, nobody had yet published them because they are unproven.

1.其中两个指控最具破坏性：一是特朗普竞选团队曾与俄罗斯政府进行见不得人的沟通，二是俄方掌握着有关特朗普古怪性行为的污点材料。这些指控在许多新闻组织（包括英国《金融时报》）中流传了好几周。但此前没有一家媒体发表，因为它们未经证实。

2. These allegations are being taken seriously. Mr Trump has already dismissed the story as fake news and a political witch-hunt. The fact that no reputable news organisation has been able to corroborate them also damages the credibility of the charges. On the other hand, as an excellent Lawfare blog observes: “The president and president-elect do not get briefed on material that the intelligence community does not believe to be at least of some credibility.” But it should also be noted that some of the charges already seem to be falling apart. Mr Trump’s lawyer, Michael Cohen, who is alleged to have met Russian operatives in Prague, has tweeted that he has never been to Prague in his life.

2.这些指控正得到认真对待。特朗普已经完全否认这条消息，称其为假消息和政治迫害。没有一家声誉良好的新闻机构能够证实这些指控，这一事实损害了相关指控的可信度。另一方面，正如法律网站Lawfare上一篇精辟的博客文章所指出的：“总统和当选总统不会得到情报界不相信至少有一些可信度的材料的简报。”但也应该指出，其中一些指控似乎已经被证明站不住脚。被指曾在布拉格与俄罗斯特工见面的特朗普的律师迈克尔?科恩(Michael Cohen)在Twitter上写道，他从来没有去过布拉格。

3. The broader context is important. One reason why these allegations are potentially so damaging is that they fit into a broader narrative. For months, political analysts have been scratching their heads about why Mr Trump is so pro-Russian. More recently, there has been speculation about why the president-elect was so dismissive of allegations of Russian hacking during the election. The most obvious explanation is simply that Mr Trump resents anything that casts doubt on the legitimacy of his election. However, there have also long been theories that Russian intelligence had some damaging Kompromat (compromising material) on Mr Trump.

3.整体背景是重要的。这些指控具有潜在巨大破坏力的一个原因是，它们与一个整体的叙述相符。数月来，政治分析人士一直对特朗普为何如此亲俄罗斯感到匪夷所思。最近，对于当选总统为何对有关选举期间俄罗斯发动黑客攻击的指控如此不屑一顾，有人作出了猜测。最显而易见的解释是，特朗普憎恶任何质疑他当选合法性的说法。然而，长期以来一直有理论认为，俄罗斯情报机构掌握着特朗普的污点材料(Kompromat)。

4. The immediate impact is likely to be limited. Some of Mr Trump’s opponents hope that these stories are so explosive that they could yet prevent Mr Trump becoming president. This is highly unlikely. The inauguration takes place on January 20. Mr Trump has comprehensively denied the allegations. However, the president-elect’s press conference on Wednesday should be quite a spectacle. There is a certain irony to the fact that Mr Trump, who spent many months peddling a false allegation that President Barack Obama was not born in the US, should now be complaining about “fake news”.

4.直接影响很可能是有限的。特朗普的一些反对者希望这些故事具有如此巨大的爆炸力，以至于它们可以阻止特朗普成为总统。这是极不可能的。就职典礼将于1月20日举行。特朗普已全面否认了这些指控。然而，当选总统周三举行的记者会相当有看头。有一个事实具有一定讽刺意味：曾经花了很多个月来兜售有关巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统不是在美国出生这一虚假指控的特朗普，现在抱怨起“假消息”来。

5. The long-term impact could be damaging. It is possible that, in the coming days, these allegations will be comprehensively debunked. In that case, they will not hurt Mr Trump. They could even help by casting doubt on all the many other allegations that are certain to be hurled at him during his presidency. However, if Congress and the intelligence agencies insist on digging further into these stories and into the general issue of Russian hacking, the Trump White House will be weakened.

5.长期影响可能是破坏性的。在接下来的几天里，这些指控有可能得到全面驳斥。在那种情况下，它们不会伤害特朗普。它们甚至可能帮助他，因为它们将使他担任总统期间肯定会面对的其它很多指控变得不那么可信。然而，如果国会和情报机构坚持进一步追查这些故事，追查俄罗斯对美发动黑客攻击的整个问题，特朗普执掌的白宫将被削弱。

The worst case would be that Mr Trump is dogged by a long-running investigation. It is worth remembering that the Watergate scandal, which originated in events during an election, took two years before it eventually forced President Nixon’s resignation. The sexual allegations against Mr Trump — although vigorously denied — are also damaging to the new president’s dignity. It is not good to take the oath of office against a background of sniggering.

最糟糕的情况是特朗普被旷日持久的调查所困扰。值得记住的是，当年的水门事件丑闻起源于选举期间发生的事情，但在两年后才最终迫使尼克松总统辞职。针对特朗普的性指控——尽管已被强烈否认——还有损新总统的尊严。在窃笑的人群面前宣誓就职不是件好事。