数字时代的双城记 A tale of two coasts digitally divide

To visit Silicon Valley these days is to take a rocket ride into the future. The breathless talk is of another surge in technological innovation, the rapid development of virtual reality, driverless cars, 3D printing, robots, personalised medicines, the application of artificial intelligence to masses of data and of further disruption in almost every nook of the economy.

如今造访硅谷，就犹如坐上火箭快速穿越到未来。人们慷慨激昂地谈论着新一轮技术革新浪潮，虚拟现实、无人驾驶汽车、3D打印、机器人、个人化医疗的快速发展，人工智能在大数据上的应用，还有经济中几乎每一个角度所遭到的深刻颠覆。

It is an exhilarating, disorienting and at times downright scary experience.

这是一种令人兴奋、迷惘，有时又十分可怕的体验。

Turning on the television while visiting Silicon Valley, in a bid to catch up with the presidential election campaign, is to crash back to Earth with a thud. The talk is of income inequality, the collapse of the middle class, the banning of Muslim visitors and the building of walls to stop immigrants pouring into the US.

而假如你在硅谷时打开电视，想看看美国总统大选进行得怎么样了，你就会砰地一声跌回地球。电视上谈论的都是收入不平等、垮掉的中产阶级、禁止穆斯林入境以及建造隔离墙以阻止移民涌入美国。

The optimism of forward-looking West Coast entrepreneurs clashes with the pessimism of the backward-looking East Coast politicians. That coastal divide is particularly stark in the US but it exists metaphorically in many other countries, too. At its simplest, it is a tussle within ourselves, both as consumers and as citizens.

目光长远的西海岸企业家的乐观与保守的东海岸政客的悲观形成鲜明对比。两个海岸之间的这种分歧在美国尤其明显，但从隐喻意义上说，它也在其他许多国家存在。简单来说，这是我们自身内部作为消费者与作为公民这两层身份之间的斗争。

The techno-optimists of California promise a further bonanza for our inner consumer, largely powered by the supercomputer smartphones in our pockets. They aim to dissolve remaining inefficiencies in just about every consumer transaction, in the same way as Uber has revolutionised the taxi trade and Airbnb has challenged the hotel industry, throwing up new economic opportunities in the process. “You can become a driver in an hour. You can become a hotel owner in a day,” marvels one venture capitalist.

加州的技术乐观派认为，我们身上作为消费者的这一部分将迎来进一步繁荣，很大程度上借助于我们口袋里具有超级计算机功能的智能手机。他们希望消除几乎所有消费者交易中剩余的低效问题，与优步(Uber)革命性的出租车服务交易和Airbnb挑战酒店业的方式如出一辙，并在该过程中带来新的经济机遇。一位风险资本家惊叹道：“你可以在一个小时内成为一名司机。你可以在一天内成为一个酒店业主。”

By flying balloons, unmanned aircraft and satellites over the remoter parts of the world, Google and Facebook are also planning to connect everyone on the planet to the internet, creating the possibility of a global digital marketplace for products, services and ideas. “The fact that we may soon provide all human knowledge to the entire population of the world is a pretty big step forward,” says one tech executive. More excitable commentators predict the era of the mass production of ideas, of a “second renaissance”, of the flowering of a global civilisation.

通过在世界偏远之地发射气球、无人飞行器和卫星，谷歌(Google)和Facebook也在计划让地球上所有人都能接入互联网，从而有可能为产品、服务和想法创造一个全球性的数字市场。一位科技业高管表示：“我们可能很快向世界所有人提供人类的全部知识，这是相当大的进步。”更为兴奋的评论员们则预测一个思想纷呈的时代，一个“第二次文艺复兴”、全球文明昌盛的时代即将来临。

But when the Silicon Valley crowd pause for breath, even they worry about some of the consequences of this technological turmoil: the impact on so many traditional jobs, the erosion of employment rights and the unequal distribution of the fruits of technology.

但是当硅谷人停下来歇口气的时候，就连他们也担心这种技术革命带来的一些后果：对众多传统工作职位的影响、对就业权利的侵蚀以及技术发展成果的不公平分配。

One long-time tech observer says Silicon Valley’s creative destruction will lead to a cruel world for many “throw-away citizens” in the US and Europe who cannot adapt. “Donald Trump has his finger on the lurking, deep-seated fear of the throwaway citizen,” he says.

一个长期关注科技行业的观察人士表示，硅谷的创造性破坏将让美欧许多无法适应的“一次性公民”(throw-away citizen)面对一个残酷世界。他说：“唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)明白‘一次性公民’潜在的深层次担忧。”

Silicon Valley may have an image as a haven of libertarianism but some are surprisingly keen on the idea of greater social insurance — such as a “citizen’s” or “basic” income — to be funded by a digital dividend from tech profits.

硅谷可能有着自由主义天堂的形象，但令人意外的是，一些人非常赞成利用来自科技业利润的“数字红利”来加强社会保障（比如“公民的”或“基本的”收入）。

Darian Shirazi is one young tech entrepreneur who supports the idea. “We have a small technological aristocracy and a middle class struggling to catch up with the demands of a more efficient economy. Basic income can bring a baseline and offer freedom to those trapped by our new economy.”

达里安•设拉子(Darian Shirazi)是一位支持上述观点的年轻科技创业家。“我们有一小群科技新贵和一个很难满足更高效经济的要求的中产阶级群体。基本收入能够提供基本生活保障，解放那些被新经济所困的人。”

Angry voters in rich societies clearly feel that politicians duped them about the gains of globalisation over the past 30 years. Although benefiting massively as consumers, many voters have lost out as workers, as jobs have shifted abroad and incomes have stagnated. The tech revolution only compounds the upheaval, threatening the second great disruption of our lifetimes.

富裕社会的愤怒选民们显然觉得，关于全球化的成果，30年来政客们一直在欺骗他们。尽管作为消费者受益匪浅，但许多选民作为劳动者却遭受了损失，因为很多就业机会转移到国外，而且收入也停滞了。技术革命只是加剧了这种动荡，有可能造成我们一生中的第二次大破坏。

James Manyika, co-head of the McKinsey Global Institute, suggests the picture is far more nuanced. He says each individual has at least five facets: as consumer, worker, citizen, investor and a moral being. “All these have largely worked in convergence before but these technological shifts are creating very different answers today,” he says.

麦肯锡全球研究所(McKinsey Global Institute)联合主管詹姆斯•马尼卡(James Manyika)表示，实际情况要微妙得多。他说，每个人都至少有消费者、劳动者、公民、投资者和道德主体这5层身份。他表示：“所有这些身份过去基本上是保持一致的，但如今这些技术变化带来了截然不同的答案。”

It would be a tragedy if the promise of technology was sideswiped by a neo-Luddite backlash. We need governments to understand these dizzying changes and devise smart regulation that encourages innovation rather than suppresses it. We also need the tech companies to acknowledge the disruption they cause and do far more to benefit all aspects of our lives.

如果技术可能带来的前景因为“新卢德派分子”的反弹而被殃及，那将是一场悲剧。我们需要各国政府理解这些令人目眩的变化，并设计聪明的监管法规，鼓励而非打压创新。我们还需要科技公司承认它们造成的破坏，付出更大努力让我们生活的方方面面受益。