四大因素可能导致苹果步微软后尘

Apple Inc., welcome to stock-market purgatory.

苹果公司(Apple Inc.)的股票将在市场上遭受磨难。

That's essentially the view Barclays analysts took Wednesday in downgrading the iPhone and iPad maker to equal weight from overweight. The firm predicts the stock will remain rangebound for at least the next year, and could suffer growing pains similar to the ones software giant Microsoft Corp. experienced when it transitioned into a mature, value stock.

这基本上就是巴克莱(Barclays)分析师周三将苹果公司的评级从增持下调至中性时所持的观点。该行预计，至少在未来一年，苹果的股价都将保持区间波动，而且可能承受越来越大的压力，类似于微软(Microsoft Co.)的股票在向一只成熟的价值股转变时所遭遇的情况。

'Frankly, we just couldn't quite bring ourselves to use smart watches or TVs as reasons to raise numbers--nor were we fully convinced that these products could move the needle like new categories did in the old days,' Barclays wrote to clients. 'As a result, we believe it is time to step aside, given a maturing smart phone market.'

巴克莱在给客户的报告中写道，坦率说，我们不能仅凭智能手表或智能电视就上调预期，我们也不太相信这些产品可以像新产品在过去那样产生决定性作用；因此，鉴于智能手机市场日趋成熟，我们相信现在是投资者回避的时候。

Apple shares recently fell 1.3% to $530.50. The stock is up about 20% over the past 12 months, although it remains well off its record high above $700 hit in September 2012.

苹果的股价最近下跌了1.3%，至530.50美元。该股在过去12个月上涨了约20%，但仍远低于其在2012年9月创下的逾700美元的纪录高点。

One of the bullish views on Apple in recent months has been the company's relatively cheap valuation compared to its peers. It trades at about 12 times future earnings, according to FactSet, less than the price-to-earnings ratios of Microsoft, Google Inc. and Facebook Inc.

最近几个月，看好苹果股票的观点之一就是该股的估值与同类股相比较为便宜。FactSet的数据显示，苹果的预期市盈率约为12倍，低于微软、谷歌(Google Inc.)和Facebook Inc.。

Barclays isn't convinced. 'We believe the valuation argument is becoming less and less helpful,' the firm said. 'Furthermore, we look at a valuation analogy vs. Microsoft from 2000 to about 2010 and see no precedent that large-size tech companies simply start to broadly outperform again after a tough year or two if the law of large numbers is catching up to them and margins have peaked.'

巴克莱并不认同这种看法。该行称，我们相信估值偏低的说法会越来越没有意义。另外，我们对2000年至2010前后的苹果与微软的估值进行了对比，发现如果符合大数定律且利润率已达到峰值，没有大型科技公司在度过艰难的一两年后能再度表现出众的先例。

Here's a chart overlaying Microsoft's performance from 1998 through the present compared to Apple's performance since 2011.

下面这张图将1998年至今的微软股价表现与2011年至今的苹果股价表现进行了对比。

Barclays offered four similarities between Apple now and Microsoft back then:

巴克莱列举了苹果公司与微软的四点相似之处：

Market Cap: Microsoft's market cap peaked at about $620 billion in 1999. Apple surpassed that mark in August 2012, but shares peaked the next month. 'The point is that the most dominant tech leaders of their era don't necessarily just regroup from these types of peaks and re-assume a new all-time high market cap after a year or two,' Barclays says. 'They may get usurped in the ensuing decade or two. These observations are easier to see in hindsight -- but it shows how hard it is to get to this type of size and stay there, much less regroup -- and rise above it again.'

市值：微软的市值在1999年达到了约6,200亿美元的峰值。苹果的市值在2012年8月超过这一水平，但股价在随后的一个月达到了峰值。巴克莱认为，关键问题是，一个时代最具影响力的科技领导者并不一定会在达到这样的峰值后重整旗鼓，并在一两年后再度创下新的最高市值纪录。该行称，这些企业的地位可能会在随后的一二十年被取代；回顾企业的发展历程会更容易看清这一点，但这也说明一个企业要达到并保持这种状态有多难，更不要说重整旗鼓、再创新高。

The Next Big Thing: Apple trades at about 12 times next year's earnings, down from its P/E of 15.9 in October 2012. By comparison, Microsoft traded at about 20 times earnings in 2004, but its multiple decreased and has roughly maintained in the mid-teen range since then. 'Once the market decides that your main product will remain slow for a long time, there does seem to be a visible pattern for multiples to sustain lower levels for a long time even if revenues grow --as was the case with Microsoft,' Barclays says.

公司发展过程中的下一个重大事件：目前苹果以下一年预期收益计算的市盈率为12倍，2012年10月份时的市盈率为15.9倍。与之相比，微软2004年的市盈率约为20倍，但此后市盈率下降并基本维持在13至16倍之间。巴克莱指出，一旦市场认定一家公司的主要产品会长期维持缓慢发展，那么即便该公司的收入增长，其市盈率长期维持在较低水平似乎也是一种明显格局，就像微软的情况。

Valuation: 'Both companies seemed to share a peak in the valuation that roughly coincided with the high point in gross margins,' Barclays says. 'Microsoft's operating margins were in the high 50% range, which marked the high point in the shares. Apple's operating margins were over 39% in the second quarter of 2012, and the high in the shares followed about two quarters later.'

股票估值：巴克莱表示，苹果与微软的股票估值高峰似乎都有与各自毛利率的高点基本同时出现。在微软的营业利润率处于57%-59%的水平时，其股票估值也处于高点。苹果的营业利润率在2012年第二季度突破39%，其股票估值的高点出现在大约两个季度之后。

Buybacks: 'Both Microsoft and Apple bowed to market pressure to issue dividends and start buybacks -- and it really did not lead to a resurgence in share price,' Barclays says. 'We acknowledge that Apple may have put a 'floor' in its stock at $500 given recent buyback acceleration, but the stock may not outperform from the mid $500s simply due to buybacks.'

股票回购：巴克莱表示，微软和苹果都迫于市场压力派发了股息并开始回购股票，但这并没有导致其股价回升；从苹果最近加快回购速度来看，该公司可能已将股价的“底线”定在500美元，但正是由于回购行动，苹果的股价可能不会大幅高于540-560美元。

In an interview earlier this month, Apple CEO Tim Cook said the company had bought $14 billion of its own shares in the two weeks following its quarterly results. Apple reported lower iPhone sales than projected and warned that revenue in the current quarter might fall from a year ago.

本月早些时候，苹果公司首席执行长库克(Tim Cook)在接受采访时表示，苹果在发布季度财报后的两周内已回购了140亿美元的股票。此前，苹果宣布iPhone销售额的下降幅度高于预期，并警告说当前财季的收入可能低于上年同期。

Apple has bought back more than $40 billion of its shares over the past 12 months, an aggressive push that billionaire investor Carl Icahn has been advocating since he took a position in the company last year.

苹果公司在过去12个月回购了超过400亿美元的股票，这是富豪投资人伊坎(Carl Icahn)去年入股苹果以来一直在倡导的大力度行动。

Still, unless Apple really has a breakthrough product up its sleeve, Barclays sees the company's future looking awfully similar to Microsoft at the turn of the century.

不过，巴克莱认为，除非苹果真的拥有突破性产品，否则该公司的前景看起来与微软在世纪之交时的情况颇为近似。

'We see plenty of evidence to suggest that each product cycle or 'next big thing' will get less and less meaningful. The risk to investors, we believe, is that earnings power ex-buybacks could be flattish stemming from multiple pressures on margins,' Barclays says.

巴克莱表示，我们看到有很多证据表明每一个产品周期或者说“下一个重大事件”的影响力会越来越小。我们认为，投资者面临的风险是，由于利润率面临多重压力，除了回购之外的收益能力可能平平。