年七大不靠谱的商业科技预测

Whenever I talk to people about the future, I'm struck by their belief that it is knowable. The impression I get is that Most people imagine the future like a book ending: already written and readable if you can just steal a quick look at the last few pages. What they find difficult is accepting that the pages aren't written yet. The future hasn't happened, hasn't even been planned--and cannot be known because it doesn't exist.

每次我跟人说起“未来”，我都被他们对“未来是可知”的这一想法吓到。我的印象就是，大部分人都想象未来像书本一样，有一个结局：已经写好了、也可以读取。你只要快速地窥一眼这本书的最后几页就能知道。他们很难接受这最后几页根本没有写完。未来还没有发生、也没有计划好——也无法预知，因为它们还根本不存在。

So I don't know what will happen in 2014--and neither does anyone else. What I imagine, though, looks like this:

所以我不知道2014会发生什么——谁也不知道。但在我的想象中，它会是这样的：

1. Technausea.

科技厌恶症。

Today's and tomorrow's technology sits on top of multiple layers, every one of which is changing and has to inter-operate with others. This makes our gadgets, the internet of things, phones and laptops unstable. And it makes consumers irritated. How many of your apps actually work--and actually make life easier, faster or more fun? I'd expect to see consumer cynicism grow, as delight is overtaken by disappointment. This will put pressure on hardware and software developers to deliver that most boring of qualities: reliability.

现今和未来的科技都基于多重技术，而每一种技术都在发生着改变、并和其他技术交互。这让我们的科技产品，像是互联网的东西、电话、笔记本等等变得不稳定，这同时也让消费者感到厌恶。就说说你们手机里的应用，有多少你是真正在用的？又有多少真正能让你的生活变简单、变快捷、变得更有趣？我认为消费者对此的嘲讽情绪会上升，科技带给他们的愉悦感会被失望所取代。这会给硬件和软件的开发者造成压力，从而让他们追求最无趣的产品品质：稳定性。

2. Mobile overtakes the web.

移动端取代网页端。

Most technology developers are seeing app use grow and web use decline. That means companies have to have strong, fast, meaningful mobile platforms and those that don't lose customers.

大部分的科技从业人员都认为移动应用会发展、而电脑应用会减弱。这意味着企业都需要强劲、快捷和实用的移动平台，不重视这点的企业必然会失去消费者。

3. Tablets meet viruses.

平板电脑的病毒出现。

As PC use declines, infecting them with viruses just won't be as much fun any more. I'd expect to see malware, worms and viruses jump onto tablets and phones. As a consequence, we will all have to start protecting our devices more assiduously.

随着PC端的消亡，再用病毒攻击他们就没那么有趣了。我认为恶意软件、蠕虫病毒和其他病毒都会很快入侵平板和手机。结果就是，我们要更卖力地保护自己的设备。

4. Manufacturing won't save the economy.

制造业也救不了经济。

I'm pleased to see manufacturing jobs returning to the U.S., but I don't expect the manufacturing industry to have the galvanic effect on the economy that many hope for. Why? Because automation will sharply erode the number of jobs any factory requires. The disappearance of blue-collar and entry-level jobs is already a problem, and that problem will grow.

我很高兴看到制造业的工作机会又重回美国市场，但我不认为它会像很多人期望的那样，产生原电池效应拯救经济。为什么？因为制造业中的很多工作机会都被机械化的自动生产取代了。蓝领阶层和基础职位的消失已经成了一个问题，而这个问题还将继续扩大。

5. Women keep rising.

女性地位继续上升。

The appointment of Inga Beale to run Lloyds of London and of Mary Barra to run General Motors marked an encouraging end to 2013. Progress for women in the coming year will continue to be too little and too slow, but you should expect to see women in positions of power and influence everywhere. Even Japan is starting to try to get women into work.

Inga Beale出任伦敦劳埃德保险公司CEO，Mary Barra 出任通用汽车高级副总裁，这些都为2013年的女性地位写下了浓墨重彩的一笔。接下来的一年，女性地位还将继续发展，但进展会缓慢而微小，但你一定能随处看到女性的权力和影响力。再怎么说，就连日本都开始鼓励女性工作了呢。

6. Gene therapy comes good.

基因疗法发展良好。

After decades of promise, new gene therapies are starting to deliver real results. Like all new therapies, communicating accurately how and where it works will prove as challenging as the treatment itself.

在经历了长达几十年的许诺后，新的基因疗法终于开始有了一些真实的好成果。不过就像所有的新型疗法一样，基因疗法需要向公众准确地传递如何治疗以及治疗背后的原理，这和疗法本身一样具有挑战性。

7. Trust will remain the single most critical business issue.

信任感依然会是商业领域中唯一且最关键的问题。

Do your customers trust you? Do they know what you do with their data and are they happy with it? This will be a major issue not just for the N.S.A., Microsoft and Google. Nor will Google Glass be the only product to provoke debate. Trust reduces the cost of doing business and those who don't build relationships of trust with their partners, suppliers and customers will feel the pinch.

你的消费者信任你吗？他们知道你都拿他们的个人信息干嘛去了吗？你这么做他们高兴吗？这不仅仅是美国国家安全局、微软和谷歌的问题。谷歌眼镜也不会是唯一一个引发争论的产品。如果你和你的顾客之间有足够的信任，这会降低你做生意的成本；反之，那些不重视与合伙人、供应商和消费者建立信任关系的企业则会为之所累。