不靠谱的预言满天飞 最丑陋的总统竞选

In a season of discredited predictions, here is a safe one. The presidential debates between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will shatter all audience records. Their draw will bear no relation to the substance of the issues. Tens of millions will tune in to watch our age’s most trigger-happy insulter denigrate one of the world’s most famous women.

在不靠谱的预言满天飞的季节，有一条比较保险的预言。希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)和唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的总统竞选辩论将打破一切观众人数纪录。他们的辩论的吸引力与所辩问题的重要性完全无关。数千万人将为了收看我们这个时代最爱乱开枪的攻击者炮轰全世界最著名的女性之一而打开电视。

In ancient Rome gladiators slaughtered barbarians to keep the people entertained. In this case however, the barbarian has a shot at becoming emperor. Whether or not he succeeds, US democracy will never be the same.

在古罗马，角斗士屠杀野蛮人以娱乐观众。不过，在当前这场角逐中，野蛮人有机会成为皇帝。无论他能否成功，美国民主将不同于过去。

What happens in the debates will offer Mr Trump’s best chance of gaining the prize. By any normal measure, Mrs Clinton’s campaign is light years ahead of her rival. Her fundraising machine is running at full pelt, raising close to $300m so far — nearly five times Mr Trump’s total. Her voter registration operation is pounding the streets in the key swing states. Mr Trump does not yet have a ground game worth the name. Mrs Clinton’s Brooklyn headquarters is the size of a small corporation with hundreds of full-time staff. Mr Trump’s Manhattan operation consists of a small circle of loyalists with scant electoral experience among them.

辩论将给特朗普提供一次入主白宫的最佳机会。以任何正常衡量标准来看，希拉里的竞选实力都甩出特朗普数光年的距离。她的筹款机器正在全速运转，截至目前已经筹得了将近3亿美元——几乎是特朗普的5倍。在关键的摇摆州，大街上随处可见她的选民登记服务。特朗普目前尚没有名副其实的实地工作。希拉里在布鲁克林的竞选总部相当于一家小公司的规模，拥有数百名全职员工。特朗普在曼哈顿的竞选总部只有一小群缺乏竞选经验的忠诚人士。

In their view Mr Trump is David to Mrs Clinton’s Goliath. Instead of a sling he holds a Twitter account. His main weapon is an ability to suss out his opponent’s rawest nerves and mercilessly exploit them. Some commentators have dismissed Mr Trump as a schoolyard bully who hurls insults to get his way.

在他们看来，如果说希拉里是巨人歌利亚(Goliath)的话，特朗普就是与之对阵的大卫。只不过他的武器不是投石器，而是Twitter账户。他的法宝是挖出对手的最大痛点，并毫不留情加以利用。一些评论人士视特朗普为随心所欲乱骂一气的校园恶霸而对他嗤之以鼻。

This is an apt summary of his moral character. It is also a dangerously complacent underestimate of his skills. Everything we have learnt from the 2016 campaign is that voters value facts, logic and consistency much less than we may have supposed. Mr Trump’s campaign is built on that insight. Civility is overrated. Insults work.

这恰当地总结了特朗普的道德品质。但这也危险而自大地低估了他的能力。我们从2016年美国总统竞选中学到的全都是，选民重视事实、逻辑和一致性的程度远低于我们原本的设想。特朗普的竞选就基于这条认识。彬彬有礼的重要性被高估了。出口伤人很管用。

Could they carry him all the way to the White House? The standard rule of US presidential campaigns says that the candidates themselves should avoid attacking their opponent’s character — such dirty work is best left to surrogates.

那些骂人话能把他一路送进白宫吗？美国总统竞选的准则称，候选人本人应该避免攻击对手的人格——这样的脏活最好留给代理人。

Mr Trump has upended that logic. Barely a day passes when he does not describe Mrs Clinton in language that has no precedent in modern US politics. One moment Mrs Clinton is an enabler to a rapist husband, the next she is a crook who deserves to be in jail. Her family bribed and killed its way to office in the 1990s. If she cannot satisfy her husband, how can she satisfy America?

特朗普颠覆了这种逻辑。他几乎每天都会用美国当代政坛从未出现过的语言来形容希拉里。一会儿，希拉里是其强奸犯丈夫的帮凶；一会儿，她又成了该进监狱的骗子。上世纪90年代，她一家通过贿赂和不择手段入主白宫。如果她连自己的丈夫都满足不了，如何能够满足美国？

Mrs Clinton is gingerly following suit. Last week she called Mr Trump a fraud whose campaign consisted of a “series of bizarre rants, personal feuds and outright lies”. He was trying to scam American voters in the same way Trump University had ripped off thousands of gullible customers.

希拉里正在小心翼翼地效仿。上周，她称特朗普是骗子，他的竞选包含了“一系列奇葩的咆哮、个人恩怨和赤裸裸的谎言”。他试图欺骗美国选民，就像“特朗普大学”(Trump University)欺诈数千名轻信于他的客户一样。

Mrs Clinton has reams of evidence to back her claims. Yet she has crossed a line she cannot uncross. If you get into a street fight with a thug, be sure to have every weapon to hand. If you use your fists, he will put on his knuckle duster. If you land a blow, he will pull out a knife. Mrs Clinton is playing on Mr Trump’s territory. He will always come back with something worse.

希拉里拥有大量可以支撑其控诉的证据。不过，她已经越过了她无法不越过的界线。如果你陷入了与恶棍的街头混战，那么你要保证手中握有所有的武器。如果你用拳头，他会戴上他的指节钢环。如果你抡起一拳，他会拔出匕首。希拉里眼下就在特朗普的地盘上出招。他总会用更恶劣的手段回击。

There are still five months to go before polling day yet the 2016 race is already a contest between “Crooked Hillary” and “Trump the Fraud”. Peak ugliness is still some way off. Can Mrs Clinton handle the inevitable escalation? Can democracy survive such nastiness unscathed?

距离选举日还有5个月的时间，但是2016年美国总统大选已经成了“不诚实的希拉里”与“骗子特朗普”之间的较量。最丑陋的时刻还未到来。希拉里应付得了不可避免的恶斗升级吗？民主可以毫发无伤地挺过如此的不堪吗？

The answer to the first is disturbingly ambivalent. Mr Trump has barely scratched the surface of Mrs Clinton’s potential conflict of interest with Bill Clinton’s global foundation, an outfit that takes millions of dollars from foreign governments and business figures that has no precedent in US politics.

第一个问题的答案存在令人不安的矛盾。特朗普几乎只触碰到了希拉里与比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)全球基金会潜在利益冲突的皮毛。该基金会从外国政府和商界人物获取了巨额资金，这在美国政治中史无前例。

Friends of Mrs Clinton have urged her to say she would close down the foundation if she is elected president. She is clearly reluctant to do so. The longer she delays what would be a wise and necessary pledge, the more Mr Trump will bolster his “crooked Hillary” moniker.

希拉里的朋友敦促她承诺，如果当选总统，她会关闭该基金会。她显然不愿意这样做。她越是迟迟不作出明智而必要的承诺，特朗普就越有底气喊出“不诚实的希拉里”的绰号。

Second, at some point in the coming weeks, the Federal Bureau of Investigation will recommend whether to indict Mrs Clinton and her underlings for having used a private server for official communications.

第二，在未来数周的某一时刻，联邦调查局(FBI)将就是否因希拉里及其手下使用私人服务器进行官方交流而起诉他们给出建议。

If the FBI merely slaps Mrs Clinton on the wrist it would still offer material for Mr Trump to allege a cover-up. If President Barack Obama’s Department of Justice buries an FBI recommendation to indict, someone will leak it. The resulting scandal could quickly engulf the campaign.

如果FBI只是对希拉里略施小惩，仍然会给特朗普以口实，称官方掩盖事实。如果美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)的司法部压下FBI的起诉建议，会有人泄露出去。由此带来的丑闻会很快淹没整个竞选。

Mrs Clinton is a weak candidate with serious vulnerabilities. Having searched vainly for a positive theme, she has settled on a negative one. Mr Trump is too dangerous to be president. She is right about that. Yet she has also chosen to fight on his terms.

希拉里不是一位强大的候选人，她有着严重的弱点。在苦寻正面主题徒劳无获后，她最终选定了负面主题。特朗普是一个太过危险的人物，不应成为总统。这一点她说对了。但她也错误地选择了用特朗普的方式去作战。

All the conventional measures say Mrs Clinton ought to win by a landslide. Yet my gut says things may not be that simple. Moreover, her victory could quickly look hollow. It will be hard to govern a country so bitterly divided by personal hatred.

所有的传统衡量标准都表明希拉里应该以压倒性的优势胜出。不过，我的直觉告诉我，事情或许没那么简单。此外，她的胜利可能很快会看起来毫无价值。治理一个被个人仇恨搞得四分五裂的国家，是一件困难的事。

When Mrs Clinton refers to her husband’s 1990s presidency, she often asks: “Which part of peace and prosperity didn’t you like?” Mr Trump’s answer is clear: You, your husband and quite possibly your daughter too. It is in anticipation of this that record audiences will be tuning in.

当希拉里提到她丈夫在上世纪90年代的总统任期时，她常会问：“和平和繁荣中的哪个部分让你不喜欢？”特朗普的答案很明确：你、你的丈夫、很可能还有你的女儿。创纪录数量的观众会因为期待看到这样的场面去收看他们的辩论。