科技前沿:AT&T:iPhone没有问题

AT&T: What iPhone problem?
In his keynote address at the CTIA's (Cellular Telephone Industries Association) big fall meeting in San Diego Thursday, AT&T's (T) chief technology officer John Donovan denied that Apple's (AAPL) iPhone is the reason so many of customers are complaining about his networks sluggish performance.

"I'm well aware of what's being said in the press, in blogs, and on Twitter," he said. "The iPhone has certainly played a role. But it's not the only device driving growth. We have a lot of people going from basic feature phones to quick-messaging devices and other smartphones, which is driving data usage." (link)

But his words were belied by a graphic he flashed briefly on the screen. We've dug up the source — a white paper published by Rysavy Research in September — and annotated it with a couple iPhone release dates.

The chart (displayed full-size below the fold) shows an 18-fold increase in data traffic during a 28-month period when voice traffic grew only two-fold.

If there were feature phones and quick-messaging devices released at the inflection points corresponding to the arrival of the original iPhone (June 29, 2007) and iPhone 3G (July 11, 2008), we must have missed them.

在周四于圣地亚哥举行的移动电话工业协会（Cellular Telephone Industries Association, CTIA）秋季大会上，美国电话电报公司（AT&T）首席技术官约翰•多诺万（John Donovan）在其主题演说中表示，苹果公司（Apple）的iPhone并非众多客户抱怨该公司网络反应缓慢的原因。

多诺万说道：“我很清楚媒体、博客和Twitter上的说法。iPhone肯定起了作用。但它并非唯一一款推动增长的设备。很多基本功能手机的用户换用了能快速收发信息的设备以及其他智能手机，这也推动了数据使用。”

但他在屏幕上闪过的一幅图表与上述说法相抵触。我们找到了该图表的来源——Rysavy Research在9月发表的白皮书——并在图中附注了两个iPhone发布日期。

该图表（全尺寸显示如下）表明，语音流量在28个月中仅增长了一倍，而同期数据流量增长了17倍。

假如在第一款iPhone（2007年6月29日）和iPhone 3G（2008年7月11日）上市时间所对应的拐点上，发布了功能手机和快速收发短信的设备，那么肯定是我们没发现。