[科技前沿]苹果将在中国售出多少部iPhone？

How many iPhones will Apple sell in China?

It's tempting to multiply China's 700 million Mobile phone users by a percentage pulled out of a hat, and now that China Unicom has announced its deal with Apple (AAPL), everybody seems to be doing it.

Result: Published estimates of how many iPhones Apple will sell in China next year that range from a low of 1 million to a high of 14 million. Here are the numbers we've seen:

• UBS analyst Maynard Um: 1 million in fiscal 2010

• Sanford Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi: 2.9 million by end of 2011

• Standard & Poor’s Clyde Montevirgen: 4 million in calendar 2010

• Susquehana Financial's Jeffrey Fidicaro: 2 million to 5 million

• Broadpoint AmTech's Brian Marshall: 5 million to 7 million in 2010

• iPhonAsia's Dan Butterfield: 14 million in the first year of sales

Everybody's guessing, of course, since China Unicom hasn't even announced its pricing or its terms. Meanwhile, Susquehana's Fidicaro offers investors this handy formula: For every additional 1 million phones Apple sells next year, you can add 18 to 20 cents to the company's earnings per share.

The Street currently expects Apple to earn $5.84 a share in fiscal 2009 and $6.79 a share in 2010, according to Thomson Financial.

将中国7亿手机用户数乘以一个假设的百分比是件极具诱惑力的事情，既然中国联通（China Unicom）已经宣布与苹果（Apple）的交易，人们似乎都在这么干。

其结果是：已公布的对苹果iPhone明年在中国销量的预测从100万部直到1400万部不等。以下是一些预测数字：

• 瑞银集团（UBS）分析师梅纳德•乌姆（Maynard Um）：在2010财年售出100万部

• 桑弗德•伯恩斯坦（Sanford Bernstein）的托尼•萨科纳吉（Toni Sacconaghi）：截至2011年底售出290万部

• 标准普尔（Standard & Poor）的克莱德•蒙特维根（Clyde Montevirgen）：在2010年售出400万部

• Susquehana Financial的杰佛瑞•斐迪卡诺（Jeffrey Fidicaro）：200万到500万部

• Broadpoint AmTech的布莱恩•马歇尔（Brian Marshall）：在2010年售出500万到700万部

• iPhonAsia的丹•巴特菲尔德（Dan Butterfield）：在上市第一年售出1400万部

当然，所有人都只是猜测，因为中国联通甚至尚未宣布其定价或条件。与此同时，Susquehana的斐迪卡诺向投资者给出了一个方便的公式：苹果明年每多售出100万部手机，其每股收益将增加18到20美分。

据汤姆森金融公司（Thomson Financial）称，华尔街目前预期苹果2009财年每股收益为5.84美元，而2010年每股收益为6.79美元。