[科技前沿]苹果IPhone有望年内亮相中国

Apple Readies IPhone For China Launch

Apple Inc. is getting closer to clearing the hurdles to start selling iPhones in China, one of the last major phone markets Apple has yet to tap.

The release of the iPhone in China could turbocharge overseas growth for what is already Apple's fastest-growing product. China is the world's largest mobile market by subscribers, with some 687 million subscribers. That compares with more than 270 million subscribers in the U.S.

The iPhone hasn't sold as well in some markets as in the U.S. In Japan, for example, the Apple brand isn't as strong, and regular mobile phones offer many of the same features.

In China, however, touch screens are hot, and there are already a number of popular models that have no keypads. The Apple name has value as a status symbol, and Internet usage through cellphones is increasing.

Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., calculates Apple can sell 2.9 million iPhones in China by the end of 2011. 'Ultimately, it will probably be the fastest-growing overseas market,' he said.

But Apple faces competition from other smart phones that are set to launch in China in coming months. And analysts say the iPhone has struggled in overseas markets, where it has faced more competition from rivals like Nokia Corp., the world's largest mobile phone maker.

'Apple's brand is strongest at home, where the competition is weaker,' said Edward Synder, an analyst for San Francisco-based Charter Equity Research.

Apple's iPhone, which launched two years ago, has so far sold more than 26 million units world-wide in more than 80 countries, but the majority of its sales have come from the U.S.

According to research firm IDC, only 7% of total iPhone sales in the second quarter, ended in June, came from the Asia Pacific, where it is sold in countries like Australia, Hong Kong and India, compared with 49% from the U.S. and 25% from Western Europe. Other sales come from markets in Japan, Latin America, Canada and the Middle East.

An iPhone prototype that was modified for the China market recently received one of the technical licenses the government requires for mobile phones, according to a testing center under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. It is unclear how many approvals are required before the phone can be released.

Apple must still complete negotiations with state-owned wireless operator China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd., which is expected to carry the iPhone, but analysts say those talks are nearing conclusion. Beijing-based research firm BDA China Ltd. said in a report this month that the iPhone is 'now finally set to make its official debut in China in October,' citing interviews with companies including Unicom.

Cynthia Meng, analyst for Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong, said in a report that she also expects the iPhone to launch in the fourth quarter this year, in conjunction with Unicom's planned launch of 3G in October.

A China Unicom spokeswoman said negotiations are still being finalized, and declined further comment. A spokesperson for Apple declined to comment. In an earnings call in July, Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook said the Cupertino, Calif., company expects to start selling iPhones in China within a year.

Competing products are already in the works in China, adding urgency to the iPhone's launch. China Mobile Ltd., the country's largest carrier by subscribers, plans to start selling smart phones with similar functions to the iPhone this year based on Google Inc.'s Android operating system. On Monday, Taiwanese phone maker HTC Corp. announced it plans to launch seven third-generation phones, including at least one Android phone, with China Mobile by next year.

China Unicom, which holds the only license for the WCDMA 3G technology compatible with the iPhone, is China's second-largest carrier.

Apple has faced regulatory hurdles to launching the iPhone in China, including having to comply with a government rule that requires the removal of the device's wireless Internet function. Analysts say they expect a later rollout of a Wi-Fi enabled iPhone that complies with newly revised regulations.

Launching the iPhone in China would likely boost Apple's small presence in the country. Apple currently has less than 1% market share in personal-computer shipments in China. In the second quarter, Apple sold only about 36,000 units out of 11.7 million PCs shipped in China, according to IDC.

One indication of the iPhone's strong potential in China is the thriving underground iPhone market that already exists there. Though the device isn't officially available, BDA estimates there are already 1.5 million iPhones in use in China, and the handset is on sale everywhere from online vendors to resellers of Apple products in sprawling electronics malls.

People can use the iPhone and buy applications on Apple's iTunes store by unlocking the device with software that enables it to work with any network operator, even if they aren't approved by Apple.

Jessica Wu, a 26-year-old iPhone user in Nanjing, said she bought her first-generation eight-gigabyte iPhone in Nanjing in 2008 for 4,600 yuan ($675). Other high-end phones 'seemed expensive and too professional' compared with the iPhone, she said. 'The [iPhone's] icons are cute.'

'People are paying close attention [to the release of the iPhone],' said Ms. Deng, who declined to give her first name, a saleswoman at an Apple reseller in Beijing called Dragonstar. 'We've already gotten a couple of phone calls from our clients placing orders for iPhones as soon as they arrive.'

The iPhone will likely raise China Unicom's profile as it has for other iPhone operators that have seen their data revenue increase. In Europe, the iPhone has just 15% of smart-phone market share but represents 90% of the total data usage on networks, according to IDC. Ms. Meng of Merrill Lynch rated Unicom a 'buy,' saying the introduction of the iPhone and other data-intensive smart devices 'will be critical catalysts for Unicom to retain and attract mid-to-high end subscribers in highly penetrated urban markets.'

How strongly the iPhone sells in China will depend on the subsidy China Unicom provides for it, analysts say. Chinese consumers spend an average of 1,100 yuan, or about $160, on cellphones, according to BDA. For comparison, the newest iPhone 3GS model starts at $199 in the U.S. with a two-year service contract, and $599 without any service commitment.

In China, Apple and its operator partner face another challenge: most users prefer to prepay for services rather than subscribe to a monthly service. Average monthly revenue per user in China is also less than $6, in part because overall charges are lower, compared with about $60 for AT&T Inc., the exclusive iPhone provider in the U.S.

Still, the payoff could be huge for Apple. Xiang Ligang, chief executive of Chinese telecommunications news portal , estimates 100 million mobile phone users in China change their phones every year and about 20 million of those buy high-end mobile phones. In some of the biggest cities especially, mobile phones are often seen as status symbols and high-end cellphones typically cost upwards of 3,000 yuan.

苹果公司(Apple Inc.)距离扫除在中国销售iPhone手机的障碍更近一步。中国是该公司尚未涉足的主要手机市场之一。

在中国推出iPhone有望大幅提振该产品的海外销售增长，目前iPhone已经是苹果公司增长最快的产品。按用户数量计算，中国是世界上最大的手机市场，拥有约6.87亿手机用户。相比而言，美国有2.70多亿用户。

iPhone在一些市场的销售情况没有美国好。举例来讲，在日本，苹果品牌实力没有那么强，普通手机能提供很多同样的功能。

不过，在中国触屏手机很热销，市场上已经有很多款颇受欢迎的触屏手机。苹果品牌的价值在于它是一种地位的象征，通过手机上网的互联网用户在日益增多。

据研究公司Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.的分析师Toni Sacconaghi估计，截至2011年底前，苹果公司能在中国销售290万部iPhone。他说，最终中国可能将成为苹果增长最快的海外市场。

不过，苹果公司面临着来自其他计划未来几个月在华推出的智能手机的竞争。分析师们说，iPhone在海外市场上境况艰难，面临着诺基亚(Nokia Corp.)等对手的更激烈竞争。诺基亚是全球最大手机生产商。

总部位于旧金山的Charter Equity Research分析师施耐德(Edward Synder)说，苹果品牌在竞争没有那么激烈的美国国内是实力最强的。

到目前为止，苹果两年前推出的iPhone在全球80多个国家已售出逾2,600万部，不过大部分销量都来自美国。

据研究公司国际数据公司(IDC)的数据，在截至6月份的第二季度中，iPhone销量只有7%来自包括澳大利亚、香港和印度在内的亚太地区；相比之下，在美销量占了49%，在西欧的销量占了25%。其余的销量则来自日本、拉美、加拿大和中东的市场。

据工业和信息化部下属的检测中心表示，一款为中国市场改良过的iPhone原型机最近获得了政府规定的一系列手机技术许可中的一项。不清楚在iPhone推出之前需要获得几项批准。

苹果公司仍必须完成与中国国有无线运营商中国联通的谈判。预计中国联通将为iPhone提供无线网络服务。不过分析师们说，谈判正逐渐接近尾声。总部位于北京的研究公司BDA China Ltd.本月在一份报告中援引包括对中国联通在内的若干公司的采访说，iPhone现在终于拟于10月在中国正式亮相。

美林(Merrill Lynch)驻香港分析师Cynthia Meng在一份报告中说，她也预计iPhone将在今年第四季度推出，与中国联通计划10月份推出的3G业务同步进行。

中国联通发言人说，谈判仍在收尾之中，并拒绝进一步置评。苹果公司发言人拒绝置评。在7月份的有关收益的电话会议上，苹果公司首席营运长库克(Tim Cook)说，苹果期待在一年内开始在华销售iPhone。

iPhone的竞争产品已经开始在中国发起行动，使得iPhone的推出更加紧迫。中国移动计划今年开始销售与iPhone有类似功能的智能手机，手机使用的是谷歌(Google)的Android操作系统。台湾手机生产商宏达国际电子股份有限公司(HTC Corp.)周一宣布，计划在明年之前与中国移动联手推出7款3G手机，包括至少一款使用Android操作系统的手机。按用户计算，中国移动是中国最大的无线运营商。

中国第二大无线运营商中国联通持有唯一一张能与iPhone兼容的WCDMA 3G牌照。

苹果面临着在中国推出iPhone的监管障碍，包括政府规定取消手机无线上网功能。分析师们说，他们预计遵守新修改后规定的具有Wi-Fi功能的iPhone将在不久后推出。

在中国推出iPhone可能会让苹果在大陆微不足道的占有率有所上升。苹果目前在中国个人电脑市场中的占有率不到1%。据IDC称，今年第二季度，在中国销售的1,170万台个人电脑中，苹果仅占约3.6万台。

iPhone在中国拥有巨大潜力的一个信号是活跃的iPhone水货市场。虽然这款手机未在中国正式发布，但BDA估计，目前中国正在使用的iPhone手机已有150万部，从网上商店到无处不在的电子商城的苹果产品经销商，这款手机到处都有销售。

即使并未得到苹果的批准，但在用软件解锁iPhone后，它就能在任何运营商的网络中使用，并可以在苹果的iTunes商店中购买应用程序。

南京市26岁的iPhone用户Jessica Wu说，她2008年在南京以4,600元（675美元）的价格购买了第一代8G iPhone手机。她说，与iPhone相比，其它高端手机价格更高，也太专业了。iPhone的图标看起来很可爱。

在北京一家名为龙星(Dragonstar)的苹果经销店中，一位没有透露名字的邓姓女销售员说，人们都在关心iPhone的推出，我们已经接到了几个客户的电话，要求一到货后就立刻购买。”

iPhone可能会提高中国联通的形象，就像其它数据收入实现增长的iPhone运营商一样。IDC称，在欧洲，iPhone仅占智能手机市场份额的15%，但占网络总数据使用量的90%。美林的Cynthia Meng对中国联通的评级为“买进”，称iPhone和其它数据密集型智能设备的引入对中国联通在日益普及的城市市场中留住和吸引中高端用户至关重要。

分析师说，iPhone在中国的销售情况将取决于中国联通提供的补贴。BDA称，中国消费者在一部手机上的平均花费为1,100元，约合160美元。相比之下，最新款iPhone 3GS手机在美国的起价是199美元，并带两年的入网协议，没有任何入网承诺的手机售价为599美元。

在中国，苹果及其运营合作伙伴还面临着另一个挑战：大多数用户喜欢预付款方式的服务，而不是每月缴费。中国的每用户平均月收入也不到6美元，原因之一是总体收费较低，而iPhone在美国的独家提供商美国电话电报公司(AT&T)的每用户平均月收入约为60美元。

不过，苹果将获得巨大的回报。中国通信业专业门户飞象网()首席执行长项立刚估计，中国每年约有1亿手机用户更换手机，其中约有2,000万人购买高端手机。尤其是在一些大城市，手机常被视为是身份的象征，高端手机的价格一般都在3,000元以上。