新任幕僚长能否稳定白宫秩序

Donald Trump’s decision to further elevate the role of senior US military figures in his administration with the appointment of John Kelly as chief of staff is explicitly aimed at bringing discipline to a White House riven by chaos and infighting.

唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump，上图右)决定任命约翰?凯利(John Kelly，上图左)担任白宫幕僚长，这个进一步提升美国高级军官在其政府中职位的决定，显然旨在让受混乱和内斗困扰的白宫恢复纪律。

But whether the former marine corps general will impose order to a freewheeling White House where the president is accustomed to making decisions on the basis of little consultation depends in large part on whether he can convince Mr Trump himself to change.

然而，这位前海军陆战队上将是否将让自由散漫的白宫恢复秩序？这在很大程度上取决于他能否说服特朗普自己做出改变。这位总统已习惯于在几乎不征求他人意见的情况下做出决定。

Military figures are trained to take orders from the commander-in-chief rather than challenge him, yet those who know Mr Kelly say he exhibits a plain-speaking authority that should give him a better chance of imposing order than the departing chief of staff, Reince Priebus.

军官的天职是从这位三军总司令那里接受命令，而不是挑战他，然而那些了解凯利的人说，他讲话直率，有权威，这应会让他比其前任雷恩斯?普里巴斯(Reince Priebus)更有可能恢复秩序。

But Chris Whipple, author of 'The Gatekeepers', a book on White House chiefs of staff, said Mr Kelly faced a “Herculean” task in a factionalised environment with rival advisers such as Stephen Bannon and communications chief Anthony Scaramucci enjoying personal channels to the president.

然而，讲述白宫历届幕僚长故事的《守门人》(The Gatekeepers)一书的作者克里斯?惠普尔(Chris Whipple)表示，凯利面临“艰巨”任务，因为他面临分裂的环境，互相争斗的顾问（例如史蒂夫?班农(Steve Bannon)和白宫通讯联络办公室主任安东尼?斯卡拉穆奇(Anthony Scaramucci)）有着与特朗普交流的私人渠道。

“The most important thing right now is that Kelly has got to be able to tell Trump what he doesn’t want to hear. If he can’t do that then there is a good chance that the Trump presidency is effectively over,” Mr Whipple said.

惠普尔表示：“目前最重要的事情是凯利必须能对特朗普说他不愿意听的话。如果他无法做到这点，那么特朗普的总统任期很有可能就实际上结束了。”

Mr Priebus saw his authority steadily deteriorate from early in the administration as he failed to ensure that decisions ran via his office. Alongside vice-president Mike Pence, Mr Priebus was the administration’s most prominent interlocutor with Capitol Hill, enjoying close relations with key figures including Paul Ryan, the House speaker.

在特朗普政府中，普里巴斯早就开始目睹自己的权威在不断削减，因为他未能确保总统的决定由他的办公室经手。与副总统迈克?彭斯(Mike Pence)一道，普里巴斯是特朗普政府内部与国会打交道的最主要的对话者，他与包括众议院议长保罗?瑞安(Paul Ryan)在内的重要人物都有着密切关系。

But with the White House consumed with Russia investigations and the president seemingly incapable of steering a clear policy path, those ties failed to coalesce in any legislative victories — as exemplified by the collapse of healthcare reforms on Thursday. Mr Priebus himself told CNN on Friday night that there was a need to press the “reset button”.

然而，在白宫陷入通俄调查以及特朗普似乎无法绘制一条清晰的政策路线之际，这些关系未能促成任何立法胜利，上周四医疗改革的失败就证明了这点。上周五夜间，普里巴斯告诉CNN，有必要按下“重置按钮”。

Mr Kelly, who has served as secretary of homeland security, does not have the same political connections that Mr Priebus was supposed to bring, but Michael Strain, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, said this was not a concern of itself.

凯利此前担任国土安全部部长，他没有普里巴斯的政治人脉，但美国智库美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的学者迈克尔?斯特兰(Michael Strain)表示，这并不是问题。

“What is needed is an internal process in the White House and some better co-ordinated strategy with the congressional leadership and individual members,” he said. “A four-star general has a lot of experience managing complex organisations.”

“现在需要的是梳理白宫内部程序，以及拿出与国会领导层及单个议员的更好协调策略，”他表示，“一位四星上将在管理复杂组织方面有丰富经验。”

Mr Trump, who attended New York Military Academy in his youth, has relied heavily on military figures in constructing his administration, among them James Mattis, his defence secretary, and Lt Gen HR McMaster, his national security adviser.

特朗普曾在青年时期就读纽约军事学院(New York Military Academy)，在构建他的内阁时一直严重依赖军界要人，其中包括他的国防部长詹姆斯?马蒂斯(James Mattis)以及他的国家安全顾问、陆军中将赫伯特?雷蒙德?麦克马斯特(HR McMaster)。

The precedents for using a military man as chief of staff are not necessarily auspicious: former general Al Haig was tasked with trying to hold the White House together during the Watergate scandal. He had an even shorter tenure than Mr Priebus under Richard Nixon’s successor, Gerald Ford.

任命军官担任白宫幕僚长的先例不一定都是好结果：前将军亚历山大?黑格(Al Haig)的使命是让白宫在水门事件(Watergate)期间团结一心。他在理查德?尼克松(Richard Nixon)继任者杰拉尔德?福特(Gerald Ford)担任总统期间的任期甚至比普里巴斯还短。

But the president appears to relish being around current and former four-star generals, and there are some encouraging signs that he is willing to listen to them, said Evelyn Farkas, a former deputy assistant secretary of defence who is now at the Atlantic Council. “Having those guys in there reassures me,” she adds.

然而，前美国国防部副助理部长伊芙琳?法卡斯(Evelyn Farkas)表示，特朗普似乎喜欢身边围绕着现任和前任四星上将，一些鼓舞人心的迹象显示，他愿意听取他们的意见。她补充称：“有这些人在他身边我感到放心。”法卡斯目前在美国大西洋理事会(Atlantic Council)任职。

What will make matters particularly difficult for Mr Kelly is the family dynamic in the White House, where he inherits chains of communication that are scrambled by the presence of powerful individuals such as Ivanka Trump and her husband Jared Kushner who are immune from the threat of being fired.

对于凯利而言，让事情变得尤为棘手的是白宫的家族干政现象，他接手的沟通网络遭到一些有势力的个人插手，例如伊万卡?特朗普(Ivanka Trump)和她的丈夫贾里德?库什纳(Jared Kushner)，他们不会受到解雇威胁的影响。

To succeed Mr Kelly will have to show the deft touch of James Baker, the most successful chief of staff in modern times, who flourished under Ronald Reagan in part because he realised the importance of bringing Nancy Reagan onside.

要想成功，凯利必须展示出现代时期最成功的幕僚长詹姆斯?贝克(James Baker)那样的机敏，贝克在罗纳德?里根(Ronald Reagan)担任总统期间大有作为的部分原因是他意识到获得南希?里根(Nancy Reagan)支持的重要性。

A further test of Mr Kelly’s authority will be whether he ensures top aides such as Mr Scaramucci report through him. Mr Kelly should also demand the right to sign off on Mr Trump’s tweets, said Mr Whipple, given the president’s habit of making announcements on the hoof via social media.

进一步考验凯利权威的将是，他能否确保斯卡拉穆奇等高级助手通过他向总统汇报。惠普尔表示，鉴于特朗普有通过社交媒体即兴发布声明的习惯，凯利还应要求获得批准特朗普推文的权利。

Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at Brookings who dealt with Mr Kelly when the general was head of the US military’s southern command, said he had shown an aptitude working on US relations with Colombia for building alliances and fostering cross-border and cross-agency relations.

曾在凯利担任美军南方司令部司令时与其打过交道的布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)高级研究员迈克尔?奥汉仑(Michael O'Hanlon)表示，为打造联盟和促进跨境和跨机构关系而致力于美国与哥伦比亚关系时，凯利展示出了能力。

As such, Mr O’Hanlon said Mr Kelly had the raw materials to succeed as chief of staff. Much depended on whether Mr Trump was willing to change his style, however, and here there was less reason for optimism.

因此，奥汉仑表示，凯利拥有成为一位成功幕僚长的素质。然而，他的成功将在很大程度上取决于特朗普是否愿意改变他的风格，在这一点上，就没那么乐观了。

“As long as the Bannons and Millers are empowered by the president, Kelly could fail just as much as the next guy despite his impressive abilities,” he said, referring to Mr Bannon and fellow adviser Stephen Miller. “He has all the ingredients that maximise the odds of success, but those are not shaped by him but fundamentally by the president.”

“只要总统赋予班农和米勒权力，尽管凯利能力超群，他仍有可能失败，”他表示，他指的是班农和同样担任顾问的斯蒂芬?米勒(Stephen Miller)，“他拥有将成功几率最大化的所有潜质，但这些不是由他决定的，从根本上说是由特朗普决定的。”