安倍:权威受损,但仍难以取代

It should have been a bad week for Shinzo Abe, Japanese prime minister, and a better one for Renho Murata, his chief opponent.

过去一周对日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)来说本应该是糟糕的一周，而对其主要对手村田莲舫(Renho Murata)本应该更顺利。

Over two days of testimony in parliament, Mr Abe contradicted himself about his memory of a cronyism scandal, even as a key figure in a different scandal linked to the prime minister was hauled in for questioning by prosecutors over fraud allegations. Yet with her foe on the ropes, it was opposition leader Ms Murata who on Thursday chose to resign.

在为期两天的国会作证期间，安倍在回忆自己任人唯亲的丑闻时自相矛盾，与此同时与安倍有关的另一起丑闻中的一名关键人物因诈骗指控受到检方讯问。不过，在对手岌岌可危的情况下，上周四选择辞职的却是反对党领袖村田莲舫。

Mr Abe’s approval rating has in just a few months plunged from a comfortable 60 per cent to 33 per cent — perilously close to levels that have done for previous Japanese prime ministers. But Ms Murata’s exit over the dismal poll ratings of her own Democratic party shows why most political observers expect Mr Abe to survive: there is simply no viable alternative.

短短几个月，安倍的支持率从令人安心的60%骤跌至33%——危险地接近终结前几位日本首相任期的水平。但村田莲舫因日本民进党(Democratic party)低迷的支持率而退出，表明了为什么多数政治观察人士预计安倍晋三会挺过这轮危机：日本根本没有可行的替代人选。

The scandals that have badly hurt Mr Abe involve a pair of private school operators, with links to the prime minister, that won public favours. In both cases there are signs that officials acted, even without any direct order from the top, in order to please the boss. By themselves, however, the cases are not that terrible. Indeed, Mr Abe’s approval rating held up well for many months as they rumbled on.

重创安倍的丑闻涉及与首相有关联的两个私立学校经营者曾经受到公共部门的照顾。两起个案都有迹象显示，官员们为了取悦领导而采取行动，即使没有来自高层的直接命令也是如此。然而，这些个案本身没那么糟糕。的确，在事件发酵的几个月里，安倍的支持率保持得不错。

What has damaged him is a poisonous air of arrogance as Mr Abe has shrugged off questions, ignored ministerial gaffes, and led his party to a resounding defeat in Tokyo city elections. The public has never loved Mr Abe, whose air of entitlement has always rankled. But they have liked the stability he has brought since 2012. Whenever that stability wobbles, he is quickly vulnerable.

重创安倍的是一种有毒的傲慢气息：他对合理的问题不屑一顾，忽视部长级官员的过失，最终领导他的政党在东京市选举中溃败。日本公众从来都不喜欢安倍，他那种颐指气使的作风始终令人不爽。但他们喜欢自2012年以来安倍带来的稳定。一旦那种稳定开始动摇，他很快就会陷入脆弱境地。

What keeps him safe is the lack of an alternative, whether within his party or without. Ms Murata — who goes by her first name, Renho — was its most recognisable figure in the DP. But riven by deep internal splits and with no coherent message, the party currently attracts polling support of just 6 per cent. The ruling Liberal Democratic party can muster 31 per cent, despite Mr Abe’s troubles.

让他坐稳首相位置的是目前缺少替代人选，无论在党内还是党外都是如此。村田莲舫（通常使用本名“莲舫”）是民进党知名度最高的人物。但饱受内部深层次分裂折磨、拿不出一致立场的民进党，目前的民众支持率仅为6%。尽管安倍面临麻烦，但执政的自民党(Liberal Democratic Party)仍然获得31%的支持率。

More threatening opponents lurk within the LDP. As Mr Abe has stumbled, factions within his own party have come back to life. However, only former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba is in open rebellion, and he lacks the support to bring down the prime minister. Neither of the other possible successors — foreign minister Fumio Kishida or finance minister Taro Aso — has much to gain from a coup.

更具威胁的对手潜伏在自民党内部。在安倍踉踉跄跄的情况下，其党内的派系重新显现。然而，站出来反抗的只有前防卫大臣石破茂(Shigeru Ishiba)，而他缺少推翻安倍所必需的支持。其他可能的继任者——外务大臣岸田文雄(Fumio Kishida)和财务大臣麻生太郎(Taro Aso)——都不会获益于跳出来反对安倍。

That leaves Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, Japan’s most popular politician, whose start-up party inflicted a heavy defeat on the LDP in elections to the Tokyo city assembly earlier this month. For all Ms Koike’s popularity, however, she has no national parliamentary platform nor any easy means to gain one.

还有就是日本最受欢迎的政客、东京都知事小池百合子(Yuriko Koike)，她创立的政党在7月初东京市议会选举中重挫自民党。然而，尽管小池百合子人气高涨，但她不具备国会竞选纲领，也没有轻松获得竞选纲领的手段。

All this gives Mr Abe time to recover. Tomomi Inada, the defence minister whose gaffes have cost the government dearly, also resigned on Thursday. An important test of Mr Abe’s strength will be whether he can keep Mr Kishida in the cabinet in a reshuffle expected next week. He could also make a bid for public approval by bringing 36-year-old Shinjiro Koizumi, the popular son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, into his cabinet.

这一切都给了安倍恢复元气的时间。防卫大臣稻田朋美(Tomomi Inada)的过失使政府损失惨重，她已于上周四辞职。对安倍实力的重要测验将是，他能否在预计于本周进行的内阁重组中保住岸田文雄。他也可能让36岁的小泉进次郎(Shinjiro Koizumi)——人气颇高的前首相小泉纯一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)之子——进入内阁，以争取公众的支持。

But the deeper problem for Mr Abe is that his government is losing momentum and purpose. It is a long time since he passed a meaningful economic reform. The more the prime minister triangulates to maintain support, the harder it is to do anything meaningful. His push to reform the pacifist constitution has failed to bring new energy to his government and reminded the public of his divisive conservative nationalism.

但是安倍面临的深层次问题是其政府正在失去势头和目的。自他推动通过有意义的经济改革方案以来，已经过去了很长一段时间。这位首相越是想方设法维持支持率，就越难有所作为。他改革日本和平宪法的努力非但未能为其政府注入新的活力，反而提醒公众警惕他那种引发分歧的保守民族主义。

Yet what looks most probable is that challengers to his leadership will stay silent and Mr Abe will drift on until next year, when he must stand for another three-year term at the helm of the LDP. Like Theresa May in the UK, the prime minister’s authority may be leaching away. But to replace him is no simple matter.

不过，看起来最有可能的情况是，有实力挑战他领导地位的人将保持沉默，而安倍将继续撑下去，直到明年他必须竞选自民党党魁的下一个3年任期。就像英国的特里萨?梅(Theresa May)一样，安倍可能正在慢慢失去权威。但想取代他并非易事。