安倍如何续写"安倍经济学"

In 2005, when Junichiro Koizumi silenced critics in his party after winning a resounding electoral victory, many expected him to embark on a streak of deep structural reforms. Instead, after a fairly non-consequential year, he quietly bowed out of politics.

2005年，当小泉纯一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)高票赢得选举、让党内批评者无话可说时，许多人预期他将启动一系列深层次的结构改革。然而，在度过相当平淡的一年后，他黯然退出了政坛。

Nearly a decade later, his one-time protégé Shinzo Abe has earned himself the possibility of four more years in power after yesterday’s poll delivered his ruling coalition a robust majority in the lower house of parliament. That could see him remaining prime minister until late-2018, edging past Mr Koizumi’s five-and-a-half years in office.

将近10年后，曾经是小泉门生的安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)为自己赢得了继续主政四年的可能性，昨日的选举在国会下院为他的执政联盟带来了强大多数。这可能会使他在首相职位上做到2018年末，略微超过小泉任职五年半的纪录。

Mr Abe is also expected to double down on his economic programme — a mix of fiscal and monetary stimulus as well as supply-side reforms, which has been dubbed Abenomics. Whenever he steps down, the question will be whether Abenomics has succeeded.

外界还预期安倍会对他的经济计划加倍下注：这是一套财政和货币刺激、加上供应面改革的组合拳政策，有“安倍经济学”(Abenomics)之称。无论他在什么时候下台，问题都将是安倍经济学是否取得了成功。

The verdict is likely to be less straightforward than one might think. Abenomics means different things to different people. To some, the primary goal is to dig Japan out of 15 years of deflation. “Deflation has been at least one of the major causes of Japan’s stagnation,” says Masazumi Wakatabe, professor of economics at Waseda University.

这个评判很可能没有人们想象的那么直截了当。安倍经济学对不同的人意味着不同的事情。一些人认为，首要目标是把日本从持续15年的通缩中拉出来。“通缩一直是日本停滞的主要原因之一，”早稻田大学(Waseda University)经济学教授若田部昌澄(Masazumi Wakatabe)表示。

With gentle inflation, say these economists, the mountainous public debt, now some 240 per cent of gross domestic product, would erode against rising nominal output. Under mild inflation, they add, there would also be more incentive for consumers to spend and businesses to invest, which would help to lift growth.

这些经济学家表示，如果有温和通胀，沉重的公共债务（如今已达国内生产总值(GDP)的240%左右）将在名义产出上升的背景下逐渐减轻。他们还说，在轻度通胀条件下，消费者将有更大动力消费，企业将有更大动力投资，这将有助于提升经济增长。

But to others, short-term stimulus delivered via monetary easing is merely the first, and least significant, part of Abenomics. More important are the structural reforms, part of Mr Abe’s “third arrow”.

但对其他人来说，通过放松货币政策来提供短期刺激只是安倍经济学的第一部分，而且是最不重要的部分。安倍的“第三支箭”，即结构性改革，将更为重要。

Takatoshi Ito, professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, says Mr Abe has spelt out many of the needed reforms, from freeing up farming and healthcare to joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal with the US and 10 other Pacific Rim countries. “After the election he will have to spend some political capital to implement those policies,” he says. That will be easier said than done.

东京大学公共政策大学院(National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)教授伊藤隆敏(Takatoshi Ito)表示，安倍阐述了很多必要的改革，从放开农业和医疗保健，到与美国及其他10个太平洋沿岸国家缔结《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)。“选举过后，他将不得不花掉一些政治资本来落实这些政策，”伊藤隆敏表示。这些事情做起来不会像说的那么容易。

Many of the strongest opponents to Mr Abe’s reform push are the conservative members of his fractious Liberal Democratic party. As Tobias Harris, a Japan expert at Teneo Intelligence, points out, rather than lining up behind their premier, it is plausible that recalcitrant backbenchers, safely re-elected, will instead dig in their heels.

安倍改革努力的许多最强大的反对者，是他所在的难以驾驭的自民党(LDP)的保守派成员。正如特尼欧情报公司(Teneo Intelligence)日本问题专家托拜厄斯•哈里斯(Tobias Harris)指出的那样，可以想象的是，顽固的后座议员在安全地重新当选后，非但不会齐心支持他们的首相，反而会更加顽固地坚持自己的立场。

Nor can Mr Abe wave a magic wand and sign the TPP. Even if he can face down national opposition, successfully concluding a deal is likely to depend more on what happens in Washington, where President Barack Obama is seeking congressional “fast-track” approval to negotiate.

安倍也无法挥动一下魔杖就签署TPP。即使他能够直面国内的反对，成功达成协定也很可能在更大程度上要取决于华盛顿发生的情况，美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)正寻求国会授予“快速通道”(fast-track)谈判权力。

Mr Ito also argues that Mr Abe will need to put more emphasis on cutting costs and raising taxes if he is to get Japan’s fiscal house in order. “He’s good at spending, but not so good at cutting,” he says of the stimulus packages and supplementary budgets that Mr Abe has championed.

伊藤隆敏还认为，安倍如果要整顿日本的财政秩序，就需要更加重视减支和增税。他在提及安倍倡导的刺激计划和补充预算时表示：“他擅长支出，但不那么擅长削减支出。”

Getting the balance right will be tricky. Mr Abe has already had to postpone a second increase in consumption tax after a rise in April throttled the recovery. Now that he is re-elected, the same problems confront him. Move too slowly with fiscal consolidation and critics will say his policies are merely short-term pump-priming. Move too quickly and his reflationary experiment might fizzle out as hard-pressed consumers snap shut their wallets.

把握恰当的平衡将是非常棘手的。在4月份上调消费税扼杀了复苏势头之后，安倍已不得不推迟消费税的第二次上调。重新当选之后，他面对着同样的问题。如果他在财政整顿方面动作太慢，批评者会说，他的政策只是短期刺激。如果动作太快，随着财务紧张的消费者捂紧钱包，安倍的通货再膨胀实验可能会不了了之。

When Mr Koizumi was elected, many Japanese thought they had at last found the man to dig the economy out of a hole. In the end, his policies did not outlast him. If Abenomics is to work, Mr Abe needs to go one better.

小泉当选时，许多日本人以为他们终于找到了把日本经济拉出泥潭的人。最终，小泉的政策随着他下台而草草收场。要使安倍经济学奏效，安倍就需要做得更漂亮。