南中国海争端变数:美国的态度

Dang Cong Ngu ruled a South China Sea archipelago for Vietnam for five years — but never once set foot in the place.

Dang Cong Ngu有5年时间一直在为越南管理位于南中国海的一处群岛，但是，他却从未踏上过这些岛屿。

The now-retired 63-year-old governor of the disputed Paracel Islands was a king without a kingdom, railing from onshore exile against China’s capture of a strategic outpost central to the battle for Asia’s seas.

如今已退休的63岁的Dang Cong Ngu曾被越方任命为存在争议的帕拉塞尔群岛（Paracel Islands，中国称西沙群岛，越南称黄沙群岛(Hoang Sa)）地区主席，这个没有王国的“国王”只能流亡于陆上，在那里痛斥中国对这一处于亚洲海洋争夺战核心的战略前哨的占领。

“We must fight to bring the territory back to the motherland,” a still-fiery Mr Dang declared in his old office, a poster proclaiming “The Paracels belong to Vietnam” in the background. “All Vietnamese, regardless of ethnicity, living inside or outside the country, know that’s the right thing to do.”

“我们必须竭尽全力让这些领土回归祖国怀抱，”依然愤懑的Dang Cong Ngu在一间老旧的办公室内称，他背后是一幅宣称“帕拉塞尔群岛属于越南”的标语。“所有越南人，无论属于哪个民族，无论在不在越南生活，都知道这是应该做的事情。”

The elder statesman’s tough talk underscores why analysts see the islands and other China-Vietnam territorial disputes as potential flashpoints for confrontation that could pit Beijing against not just Hanoi but the new administration in Washington. Vietnam fought a border war with China as recently as 1979 — and, like other Southeast Asian countries, it is waiting nervously to see how Donald Trump’s government deals with Beijing and its territorial ambitions. China’s Xi Jinping is set to meet Mr Trump in the US next month.

这位年长的越南政治家的强硬言论明确表明，为何分析人士将这些岛屿以及中越之间的其他领土纠纷视为潜在冲突引爆点——有可能让北京陷入与河内、甚至华盛顿新政府的对抗。中越之间就在1979年还打过一场边境战争。与其他东南亚国家一样，如今越南正焦急地等着要看唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)政府如何应对北京及其领土野心。中国国家主席习近平将于下月在美国与特朗普会面。

Jonathan London, a Vietnam specialist at the Netherlands’ Leiden University, said: “For Hanoi and the Vietnamese, Beijing’s claims and its efforts to enforce these through aggressive practices remain clear and present threats to national security and sovereign interests. The great unknown in all of this is how the Trump administration will manage its relations with Hanoi — and in the region more broadly.”

荷兰莱顿大学(University of Leiden)越南问题专家乔纳森?伦敦(Jonathan London)表示：“在越南政府和越南民众看来，北京方面的领土主张及其通过挑衅性做法贯彻这些主张的努力，依然是对越南国家安全和主权利益明确且现实的威胁。这其中最大的未知数是特朗普政府将如何处理其与河内——以及整个东南亚地区——的关系。”

Hanoi this week called for Beijing to stop running cruise ship trips to the Paracels, which are known as Hoang Sa in Vietnamese and the Xisha islands in Chinese. Those tours are part of a broader effort by Beijing to press its territorial claims to more than 90 per cent of the South China Sea, by building military facilities and artificial islands around the region.

最近，河内方面呼吁北京停止用游轮载送游客至帕拉塞尔群岛观光。这些观光项目是北京方面更广泛努力的一部分——通过在整个地区修建军事设施和人工岛屿强化其对南中国海逾90%海域的领土主张。

The Paracels are a strategic way station south-east of China’s Hainan Island and its nuclear submarine fleet, in a wider seaway crucial to international trade. Beijing has built harbours, helipads and an air base in the archipelago, according to a report published last month by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. China last year deployed anti-aircraft missiles in the Paracels and recently cleared still more land in preparation for possible further construction, according to satellite images, the latest of them released this week.

帕拉塞尔群岛是位于中国的海南岛（及其核潜艇舰队）东南方向的一处战略要冲，处于对国际贸易至关重要的广阔海上航道上。战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)旗下亚洲海事透明倡议(Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative)上月发布的一份报告显示，中国政府在该群岛修建了若干港口、直升机起降场及一处空军基地。卫星图像显示，中国去年在帕拉塞尔群岛部署了防空导弹，而根据日前公布的最新图像，北京最近又清理出了更多土地，为可能的进一步建设做准备。

Communist-ruled Hanoi has made its own military preparations by strengthening ties with a range of international powers, including its former enemy the US. It has also increased security co-operation with Japan and India, which are both trying to curb Chinese expansion in the region.

共产党执政的越南政府已通过巩固与众多全球大国——包括曾经的敌人美国——的关系进行军事方面的准备。它还加强了与日本和印度的安全合作，后两个国家均在努力遏制中国在本地区的扩张。

Another element of Hanoi’s response is to maintain the bureaucratic fiction of its rule over the Paracels, which South Vietnamese forces lost to China in a 1974 battle while they were sliding to civil war defeat. The Paracel administration’s headquarters in the Vietnamese coastal town of Da Nang is filled with maps, photos and other historical documents ostensibly in support of its claim.

河内方面其他回应包括坚持其对西沙群岛拥有管辖权的官方说辞——中国在1974年的一次冲突中从当时在内战中节节失利的南越军队手中得到了该群岛。位于越南沿海城市岘港的帕拉塞尔群岛行政当局的总部内放满了各种地图、照片及其他貌似支持越南领土主张的历史文献。

Le Dinh Re, a former South Vietnamese naval officer, recalled rescuing troops defeated by the Chinese in 1974. “I didn’t think China would still be there after 43 years,” said Mr Le, 73. “I really hope that one day I can set foot in Hoang Sa.”

南越海军退役军官Le Dinh Re回忆起1974年营救被中国击败的军队的情形。“没想到43年后中国仍占着那里，”73岁的Le Dinh Re说，“我真希望有一天能踏上黄沙群岛。”

The deployment of a Chinese oil rig in the area three years ago triggered anti-Beijing protests. Mobs later ransacked or torched hundreds of foreign-owned businesses in Vietnam’s industrial zones.

中国3年前在该地区部署钻井平台引发了反北京的抗议活动。后来暴民洗劫或烧毁了越南工业区的数百家外资企业。

Nowadays Vietnamese fisherman at a Da Nang boat repair yard complain that they are chased away from the Paracels by Chinese vessels. Authorities say one large fishing boat was deliberately rammed: the plan is to put it in a new Da Nang museum devoted to the islands and Vietnam’s imagination of them.

如今，岘港船舶修理厂的越南渔民抱怨称，他们被中国船只赶离了帕拉塞尔群岛。有关当局称，一艘大型渔船被故意撞沉：现在的计划是，把它放在岘港一个新博物馆里展示，这个博物馆专门介绍这些群岛以及越南对它们的想象。

“Our fishing boats are wooden and their vessels are steel, so we have no solution to this,” lamented Nguyen Vu, 35. “It’s our traditional fishing area, so we will never give it up.”

35岁的Nguyen Vu哀叹道：“我们的渔船是木质的，他们的船是钢铁造的，因此我们没有办法解决这个问题。这是我们传统的捕鱼区，因此我们永远不会放弃。”

China has rejected both Vietnam’s Paracel sovereignty arguments and a wider ruling made by an international court in July against most of its South China Sea territorial claims. Beijing argues that the US is the aggressor in Asia because of its warship deployments and military bases around the region. China says it is committed to a long-planned code of conduct for countries in the region.

中国反驳了越南关于帕拉塞尔群岛是其领土的主张，同时中国还认为，去年7月一家国际法庭做出的不利于中国在南中国海大部分领土主张的更广泛裁决是无效的。中国政府辩称，美国是亚洲地区的挑衅者，因为它在该地区部署了战舰和军事基地。中国表示，它致力于促成一项规划已久的亚洲地区安全行为准则。

Hanoi is now sensitively placed as the Southeast Asian capital most publicly at odds with China’s maritime ambitions, after Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte sought to repair his country’s relationship with Beijing.

在菲律宾总统罗德里戈?杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)寻求修复本国与中国的关系之后，河内现在地位敏感，被视为最公开与中国海洋抱负对立的东南亚国家。

Vietnam’s belligerence is necessarily tempered by China’s far greater firepower — and by longstanding trade, cultural and political links between the two countries. But those caveats may yet be swept aside in this high-stakes and fast-evolving battle to rule the waves. Former governor Mr Dang says the Paracels’ administration-in-exile will push ever harder to build diplomatic and legal pressure on China to hand the islands over. “Ours is an extremely difficult and complex mission,” he said. “We must use all means that we can to regain Vietnamese sovereignty over Hoang Sa.”

越南的战斗姿态必然是有限度的，因为中国火力强大得多，而且两国间长期存在贸易、文化和政治往来。但在这场争夺海洋统治权的事关重大且快速演变的战争中，那些告诫或许仍会被抛诸脑后。帕拉塞尔群岛前地区主席Dang Cong Ngu表示，帕拉塞尔群岛的流亡当局将会进一步向中国施加外交和法律压力以要求后者归还这些岛屿。他说：“我们的使命极为艰难和复杂。我们必须竭尽所能收回越南对黄沙的主权。”

Additional reporting by Khac Giang Nguyen

Khac Giang Nguyen补充报道