韩国有望超过中国成为亚洲头号军火出口国
In South Korea, the business of war is booming.
在韩国，战争生意正在蓬勃发展。
Military exports have soared nearly 1,100 per cent since 2009 as the nation’s arms manufacturers thrive off growing global instability, competitive pricing and the re-emergence of demand for conventional weapons of warfare — the country’s speciality.
自2009年以来，韩国的军火出口猛增了近1100%。日益加剧的全球动荡、有竞争力的定价以及传统战争武器（韩国的强项）需求重现，推动韩国军火制造商茁壮成长。
Now, analysts believe the country is on track to overtake China as the region’s leading arms exporter by the end of the decade.
分析师现在认为，到2010年代末，韩国有望超过中国成为该地区的头号军火出口国。
“Globally, South Korea is in a good spot,” said Paul Choi, head of reSearch at CLSA Securities Korea. “[Its] structural growth in defence equipment is already ahead of its own target. By 2020, it will pass China to become Asia’s arms powerhouse.”
里昂证券(CLSA)韩国研究部门主管Paul Choi表示：“从全球来看，韩国的情况不错。其国防装备的结构性增长已超越了自身的目标。到2020年，它将超过中国成为亚洲的军售龙头老大。”
The boom is being fuelled by rising geopolitical tensions in Asia and eastern Europe.
亚洲和东欧不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势正在助长这股发展势头。
China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea has prompted the region’s emerging markets, such as Indonesia and the Philippines, to devote more to defence, but with a keen eye on price.
中国在南中国海日益强硬的态度促使该地区的新兴市场国家——如印度尼西亚、菲律宾——加大了国防投入，但它们对价格较为敏感。
Here, South Korea’s arms exporters, including Korea Aerospace Industries and Hanwha Techwin, have proven extremely competitive, often sweetening deals with the transfer of technology.
韩国航空宇宙产业株式会社(Korea Aerospace Industries)和韩华(Hanwha)旗下的Techwin等韩国军火出口商已证明自身极具竞争力，它们常常以技术转让为条件来增加交易的吸引力。
The nation also carries little geopolitical or historical baggage and can cater to the rising demand for weaponry in the Middle East, Indian subcontinent or Southeast Asia with less sensitivity than some of its nearest neighbours.
此外，韩国背负的地缘政治和历史包袱很少，与它的几个邻国相比，它可以满足中东、印度次大陆和东南亚不断增长的军火需求而不致引起那么大的关切。
“Trucks and submarines to Indonesia, comms equipment to Iraq, ships to the UK . . . South Korea has a diverse industry and is selling to a wide range of users,” said Ben Moores, a senior defence analyst at IHS Markit. “China, meanwhile, is dependent on Pakistan and Sri Lanka.”
IHS Markit高级防务分析师本.穆尔斯(Ben Moores)表示：“向印尼卖卡车和潜艇，向伊拉克卖通讯设备，向英国卖舰只……韩国拥有多元化的国防产业，客户范围广泛。中国则依靠巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡。”
Last year, South Korea exported $871m of equipment — up from $73m in 2009. For 2016, Mr Moores expects the total to surpass $1.2bn.
去年，韩国军火出口额达8.71亿美元，而2009年为7300万美元。穆尔斯预计，2016年韩国军火出口总额会超过12亿美元。
China’s arms exports, in comparison, declined from $1.9bn in 2013 to $1.6bn last year. IHS Markit predicts Beijing will drop out of the world’s top 10 ranking next year.
相比之下，中国军火出口额从2013年的19亿美元降至去年的16亿美元。IHS Markit预计，明年中国将在全球排行榜上跌出前十名。
