美国重返亚洲战略的悲剧前景

Rodrigo Duterte, the president of the Philippines, caused shock and sniggers around the world when he called Barack Obama the son of a whore.

菲律宾总统罗德里戈•杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)说巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)是婊子养的，引起了全世界的震惊和窃笑。

But the Duterte comment that will have really hurt the White House came a few days later.

但杜特尔特真正伤害白宫(White House)的言论是几天后发表的。

Announcing that he was ending joint naval patrols with the US in the South China Sea, the Philippines’ president stated: China is now in power and they have military superiority in the region.

这位菲律宾总统宣布，他将结束本国与美国在南中国海(South China Sea)的海军联合巡逻。他声明：中国眼下势力正强，他们在该地区拥有军事优势。

That statement will sting in Washington.

该声明将刺痛华盛顿方面。

Throughout the Obama years, the US has attempted to reassure all its Asian allies that America has both the means and the will to remain the dominant military power in the Asia-Pacific region.

纵观奥巴马执政这些年，美国一直试图让所有亚洲盟友放心：美国既有在亚太地区维持主导性军事实力的手段，又有这样做的意愿。

President Obama set the tone in a landmark speech in 2011, when he firmly asserted that the United States is a Pacific power and we are here to stay.

美国总统奥巴马在2011年的一次里程碑式讲话中为此定下了基调。他当时坚定地断言道，美国是一个太平洋大国，将坚守这一地区。

Since then America has transferred more of its navy to the region and Mr Obama has regularly made the long journey from Washington to East Asia.

从那时起，美国向亚太增派了更多海军兵力，奥巴马经常不远万里，从华盛顿出发到访东亚地区。

But Mr Duterte has now directly challenged the idea that America is still the hegemon in the Pacific.

但如今，杜特尔特直接挑战了美国仍是太平洋霸主的观点。

If others take his view, power could drain away from Washington, as more countries in the region begin to defer to Beijing.

如果其他人接受他的看法，随着更多国家开始顺从于中国，力量可能会从华盛顿手中溜走。

The Philippines’ president’s assessment of the military balance between the US and China is questionable.

菲律宾总统对于美中军事平衡的评估是值得商榷的。

The Americans currently have 11 aircraft-carriers, while China has one — with another on the way.

目前，美国拥有11艘航空母舰，而中国只有一艘——另外还有一艘将于不久后下水。

But Chinese military spending has been rising fast for decades.

但几十年来，中国的军费开支一直快速增长。

And Beijing has also invested in the kinds of equipment, including missiles and submarines, that potentially make America’s aircraft carriers very vulnerable.

北京方面还投资研发包括导弹和潜艇在内的各种装备，这些装备可能使美国的航母变得非常易受攻击。

Over the past year, China’s new confidence has been reflected in its programme of island building in the South China Sea, designed to reinforce Beijing’s controversial claim that roughly 90 per cent of that sea falls within its territorial waters.

过去一年里，中国新的信心已在其南中国海造岛计划中反映出来。该计划是为了强化北京方面备受争议的主张，即大约90%的南中国海海域属于中国领海。

The Americans have been unable to stop this clear assertion of Chinese power and have restricted themselves to sailing past the disputed and increasingly militarised islands to signal that they do not accept China’s claims.

美国人一直无法阻止中国这种明确的实力展示，所做的仅仅是驶过这些存在争议、军事化程度越来越高的岛屿，以示他们不接受中国的主张。

The importance that the US attaches to the South China Sea has been repeatedly emphasised by the Obama administration.

奥巴马政府已反复强调了美国对南中国海的重视。

In an article on America’s Pacific century, published in 2011, Hillary Clinton pointed out that half the world’s merchant tonnage flows through this water.

在2011年发表的一篇题为《美国的太平洋世纪》(America’s Pacific century)的文章中，希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)指出，经由这片海域运输的货运量占到全球总货运量的一半。

The US fears that Beijing intends to turn these crucial waters into a Chinese lake.

美国担心，北京方面有意把这些关键水域变成中国的（一个）湖。

The Americans have long insisted, reasonably enough, that their position on the South China Sea is about upholding international law rather than engaging in a power struggle with China.

美国人长期以来坚称——可以说不无道理——他们对于南中国海的立场是为了维护国际法，而不是与中国展开力量角逐。

The Philippines has been vital to this law-based strategy.

对于这种基于法律的策略，菲律宾一直是至关重要的。

In July, Manila won an international legal challenge to Beijing’s claims over the South China Sea, a ruling that was widely seen as a major setback to China’s ambitions.

今年7月，菲律宾在一个国际仲裁庭上挑战中国在南中国海的领土主张时获得了胜利，这一裁决被普遍认为代表着中国雄心遭遇一次重大挫折。

Yet it is rather hard for America to defend the legal rights of the Philippines, when Mr Duterte curses Mr Obama in public and then curtails joint naval patrols.

然而，当杜特尔特公开咒骂奥巴马、接着又缩短美菲海军联合巡逻时，想让美国捍卫菲律宾的合法权利，是相当困难的。

The US does have other partners in the region.

诚然，美国在该地区有其他合作伙伴。

Last week Japan announced that it will carry out naval patrols with the US in the South China Sea.

上周，日本宣布将与美国在南中国海开展海军联合巡逻。

But a partnership with Tokyo, which is locked in a bitter rivalry with Beijing, makes the maritime issue look more like a power struggle with China, rather than a question of international law, particularly since the Russians and Chinese have just completed their own joint exercises in the South China Sea.

但是，与当前正和中国激烈对抗的日本联手，使这个海上问题看起来更像是与中国的力量角逐，而不是国际法问题，特别是考虑到俄罗斯和中国刚在南中国海完成了联合演习。

Under the circumstances, many Southeast Asian countries will be tempted to stand to one side rather than risk being caught up in a clash of regional titans.

在这种情况下，许多东南亚国家将想要选边站，而不是冒被卷入地区巨头冲突的风险。

The sense that America’s pivot to Asia is in trouble is compounded by the growing doubts about the fate of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade deal promoted by the US.

人们感到，美国的重返亚洲战略已陷入困境，更糟糕的是，人们对于美国推动的贸易协议《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)的命运感到越来越怀疑。

The TPP brings together 12 nations, including Japan and the US, but excludes China.

TPP有12个成员国，包括日本和美国，但却把中国排除在外。

The deal is widely seen as a counter to China’s growing economic dominance in the Asia-Pacific region.

该协定被广泛认为是对抗中国在亚太地区不断增强的经济主导地位的一项武器。

Pleading the case for the TPP before the US Congress, Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, argued: Long term its strategic value is awesome.

在美国国会为TPP辩护时，日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)提出：从长期来看，TPP的战略价值是巨大的。

But the entreaties of Mr Abe and Mr Obama seem unlikely to save the TPP.

但安倍和奥巴马的恳求似乎不太可能保住TPP不流产。

Donald Trump and Mrs Clinton, the two main candidates for the US presidency, have come out against the deal.

美国两位主要的总统候选人唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)和希拉里都已公开反对TPP。

Mr Obama may still try to force it through Congress before he leaves office.

奥巴马在离任前或许仍会尝试强力促使国会通过TPP。

But the chances of the TPP surviving the current climate of protectionism in America seem small.

但在当前美国的保护主义氛围下，TPP存活下来的可能性似乎很小。

If the US fails to pass the TPP, America’s Asian allies will feel badly let down.

如果美国未能通过TPP，其亚洲盟友会感到非常失望。

They have risked antagonising Beijing by signing up to a US-led initiative.

他们冒着激怒中国的危险，签署了这项美国主导下的倡议。

Now Washington may jilt them at the altar.

现在，华盛顿方面或许会在最后关头抛弃他们。

On a recent visit to the US capital, Lee Hsien Loong, the Singaporean prime minister, called the TPP a litmus test of (American) credibility and seriousness of purpose in Asia.

不久前，新加坡总理李显龙(Lee Hsien Loong)在访问美国首都时，把TPP称为一块考验（美国在亚洲）可信度和目标严肃性的试金石。

He pointed out that the implications go well beyond trade, extending to the credibility of America’s security guarantees to its Asian allies.

他指出，其影响远远超出贸易范畴，延伸到美国给予亚洲盟友的安全保证的可信度。

Unfortunately, long-term strategic thinking is almost impossible in the current maelstrom of American politics.

遗憾的是，在当前美国的政治大漩涡中，着眼长远的战略思考几乎是不可能的。

As a result, President Obama faces the sad prospect of leaving office with his signature foreign-policy initiative — the pivot to Asia — sinking beneath the Pacific waves.

结果是，美国总统奥巴马面临一种悲惨前景：当他卸任时，他标志性的外交政策倡议——重返亚洲——会沉入太平洋的波涛之下。