首相尘埃落定 英国脱欧谈判不应急躁

One by one, the rivals to replace David Cameron were found out. Boris Johnson, a chancer who thinks a smattering of Latin fair substitute for strategy or principle. Michael Gove, a political sociopath with a manifesto that read like an undergraduate essay. Andrea Leadsom, the hard-right’s unelectable answer to Labour’s far-left, and unelectable, Jeremy Corbyn. Theresa May’s stroll into Downing Street offered some hope that Britain has not gone completely mad.

竞争取代戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)的人一个接一个现身。鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)，投机分子，以为会一点拉丁语就不用考虑策略或原则。迈克尔•戈夫(Michael Gove)，政治上的反社会分子，其宣言读起来像一篇本科生论文。安德里亚•利德索姆(Andrea Leadsom)，不可能领导保守党赢得大选的强硬右派，就像同样不可能领导工党赢得大选的工党极左派杰里米•科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)。特里萨•梅(Theresa May)步入唐宁街的画面给了人们些许希望——英国没有彻底疯掉。

Mr Johnson has the Foreign Office as a consolation prize. The hope must be that he is not too much of an embarrassment. The adage has it that politics always ends in failure. In Mr Cameron’s case it was self-inflicted. He always preferred tactics to strategy. Add an inflated sense of his ability to get out of tight spots and an unhappy ending was inevitable. The big tactical swerve — a referendum offered in a vain attempt to appease Tory Europhobes — steered him, and the nation, into a brick wall.

作为安慰奖，约翰逊得到了英国外交部，但愿他不会制造太多尴尬。谚语有云，政治总是以失败告终。但卡梅伦这件事上，失败是他自己造成的。他总是轻战略重战术，以逃避困难局面见长，结局必然是失败。这个战术大转弯——妄图以公投安抚恐欧盟保守党人——让他，连带整个英国都撞了墙。

There was not much dignity, I suppose, in the abruptness with which he was bundled out of Number 10 this week but then Brexit is the biggest political and foreign policy failure of postwar Britain. The 1956 Suez debacle was a small bump on the road by comparison. The prime minister who took Britain out of the EU and, quite possibly, broke the union of the United Kingdom as a consequence — not a happy epitaph.

我想，尽管卡梅伦上周仓促搬离唐宁街10号显得不太体面，但脱欧才是英国战后在政治上、外交政策上的最大失败。与之相比，1956年苏伊士运河危机只是历史长河里的一次小颠簸。“这里长眠着一位英国首相，他不但带着英国退出了欧盟，而且（很可能）因此拆散了联合王国”——这样的墓志铭听起来可不怎样。

Mrs May was the best choice available as his successor. She was on the pro-European side but stayed invisible during the campaign. Her reputation as a steely, competent home secretary is overdone. She dodged difficult decisions and failed to get a grip on border controls and the enforcement of immigration rules. Her success was surviving in a department more commonly considered a political graveyard. She has a reputation as a pragmatist and avoids histrionics. The process of government will become more formal and be better for it. In temperament she is not too far from Germany’s Angela Merkel.

梅是现有最佳的卡梅伦继任人选。她是亲欧派，但在脱欧公投运动中表现得并不明显。说她是一位“铁娘子”，一个能干的内政大臣是过誉了。她逃避艰难的决定，既没有抓好边境控制，又没能落实移民规则。她的成功之处，就是在一个通常被视为政治坟墓的部门幸存了下来。她是个有名的实用主义者，尽量避免装腔作势。政府工作流程将更规范，这样也更好。气质方面而言，她与德国的安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)差得不太多。

The policy vacuum left by the Brexit vote has thus far filled with wishful thinking. On the pro-European side, a cry of pain has been followed by insistence that the result need not be the final word. Lawyers have been hired, constitutional precedents consulted. If the people can decide to say goodbye to their own continent, surely they also have the right to change their mind? After all, buyers’ remorse may set in as the economy slips towards recession.

到目前为止，英国脱欧公投留下的政治真空充满了一厢情愿。亲欧派这边，一通哀嚎过后，他们坚决主张公投结果不一定是最终定论。他们聘请律师，咨询宪法判例。如果人民可以选择跟自己所在的大陆说再见，为什么不能有改变主意的权利？毕竟，随着经济滑向衰退，“买家后悔”情绪可能出现。

Among the Leavers there is a let’s-get-on-with-it hubris that says Britain can skip out of the EU the day after tomorrow. It will get a good deal because Germany wants to continue selling its cars and France its wine. Anyway, the latter-day Elizabethans declare, there is a world to be conquered beyond Europe’s troubled shores. A sinking economy? Pro-European propaganda. These are people who invent their own facts.

脱欧派则弥漫着一股“大家面对现实吧”的傲慢劲儿，他们说英国后天就能离开欧盟。英国将得到一笔好交易，因为德国想继续卖车，法国想继续卖酒。总之，这些活在伊丽莎白时代的当代人宣称，在困难重重的欧洲大陆以外，还有个世界等着英国去征服。经济下沉？那是亲欧派的宣传。这些人总是在编造自己想要的事实。

It is possible, of course, that Britain could decide in the end to remain in the EU or to opt for something close to it such as associate membership. If we have learnt anything these past few weeks it is that politics can turn somersaults. A new prime minister will not change the reality that it will be difficult to secure broad political consent for any one of the many versions of “out”. On the other hand, it is also conceivable, just, that a speedy and good-natured negotiation could see Britain leave on relatively favourable terms.

当然，英国人也可能最终决定留在欧盟，或选择某种类似身份，比如欧盟准会员。如果说过去几周我们学到了什么，那就是政治可能发生180度的大转弯。“脱欧”有很多版本，任何一种版本都很难在政治上获得广泛赞同，新首相也不会改变这一现实。但另一方面，可以预料动作快、态度好的谈判将让英国以比较有利的条件脱欧。

Politicians must deal in facts and probabilities rather than dreams. The process of unravelling four decades of political and economic integration will be complex, costly and frequently bad-tempered. The Britain that emerges will be weaker economically and have a smaller footprint internationally.

政治人士必须兜售事实和可能性，而不是梦想。解除40年的政治和经济一体化将是一个复杂、成本高昂、通常还令人脾气暴躁的过程。脱欧后的英国的经济将会变弱，国际影响将会变小。

“Brexit means Brexit” is Mrs May’s favourite phrase. It offers assurance to Tory Outers who worry about her commitment to withdrawal. It says nothing, though, about the shape of post-Brexit relations. The new prime minister has avoided showing her hand on where she wants to draw the balance between access to the single market and national control of immigration policy. This will be the subject of two sets of negotiations — the first with her own party, where the interests of business will collide with the ideology of Little Englanders, and then with the other 27 EU states. The former may be harder than the latter.

“英国脱欧就意味着英国脱欧”是梅最喜欢的句子。这是对那些担心她是否会兑现脱欧承诺的保守党脱欧派的保证。然而，这句话对英国脱欧后的英欧关系只字未提。这位新首相避免明确表态她希望在单一市场准入和国家对移民政策的控制之间的哪个位置取得平衡。这将是两组谈判的主题——第一组是与她本人所在党的谈判，商业利益将与英国本土主义者的意识形态发生碰撞，然后是与其他27个欧盟国家的谈判。前者可能比后者还要困难。

Mrs May will be told by the Brexiters to get on with it: set out your position clearly, trigger Article 50 and wrap up a deal as quickly as possible to put an end to uncertainty. The prime minister should ignore the pleas. The only hope she has of squaring half-a-dozen circles will be to play the negotiations long.

脱欧人士将敦促梅继续推进：阐明立场，激活《里斯本条约》(Lisbon Treaty)第50条，然后尽快签订一项协议，终结不确定性。首相应该无视这些请求。她解决半打异常棘手的问题的唯一希望是让这些谈判旷日持久地进行下去。

We are living through a period of political and economic upheaval — in Britain and in the rest of the continent. What Mrs May must hope is that over time the politically impossible becomes the possible; that compromises unacceptable today are seen as common sense a year or two hence.

我们正在经历一个政治和经济的动荡期——无论是在英国还是在欧洲大陆的其他地方。梅只能希望，随着时间的推移，政治不可能会变成可能；今天看来不可接受的让步在一两年后会被视为合理。

Why should Europe wait? Listen to Ms Merkel. The chancellor quite rightly insists that the EU will not be bent out of shape to accommodate the British. But she prefers deliberation to rushed decisions. She understands it is in Europe’s interest to rescue what can be salvaged from the wreckage and to emerge with relations with Britain on a reasonable footing. She also has an election to fight next year. So does President François Hollande of France. Changes to EU-wide migration rules may seem more attractive. A pause might just suit everyone.

那么欧洲为什么应该等待呢？听听默克尔的话吧。这位德国总理相当正确地坚持认为，欧盟不应该为了适应英国而扭曲自身。但比起仓促之间作出决定，她更希望各方能深思熟虑。她明白，从废墟里救出还能够被抢救出来的东西，在合理的基础上建立与英国的关系，符合欧洲的利益。默克尔明年还必须为大选而战。法国总统弗朗索瓦•奥朗德(François Hollande)也是如此。修订整个欧洲范围内的移民法规似乎更有吸引力。暂时的停顿可能对所有人都好。