英国首相不应该妄议央行工作

Many influentialinterests and opinion-formers de-test today’s ultra-low interest rates.

许多具有影响力的利益集团和舆论影响者不喜欢当今的超低利率。

They are alsoclear who is to blame: central banks.

他们还明确指出罪魁祸首是央行。

Theresa May, UKprime minister, has joined the fray, arguing that while monetary policy . . . provided the necessary emergency medicine after the financial crash, we have toacknowledge there have been some bad side effects.

英国首相特里萨.梅(Theresa May)加入了指责的阵营，她表示，尽管货币政策在金融危机过后……提供了必要的紧急救助，但我们不得不承认，它带来了一些副作用。

People with assetshave got richer.

拥有资产的人变得更富了。

People withoutthem have suffered.

没有资产的人日子更加难过。

People withmortgages have found their debts cheaper.

有抵押贷款的人发现他们的债务更便宜了。

People withsavings have found themselves poorer.

有储蓄的人发现他们更穷了。

A change has gotto come.

必须做出改变。

So how might the governmentdeliver such change? The answer is not obvious.

那么政府应该如何推动这种改变？答案并不明显。

As BenBroadbent, deputy governor of the Bank of England, notes, real long-terminterest rates have fallen to zero (or below) over the past quarter of acentury.

正如英国央行(BoE)副行长本.布罗德本特(Ben Broadbent)所说的，在过去25年里，长期实际利率已降至零值（或负值）水平。

Furthermore, asthe International Monetary Fund points out, core consumer price inflation hasbeen persistently weak in high-income economies.

此外，国际货币基金组织(IMF)指出，高收入经济体中的核心消费者价格通胀率持续疲弱。

Mr Broadbentargues: With inflation relatively stable in all these countries, it’s hard tobelieve central banks were doing much else than . . .  following a similardecline in the neutral rate of interest.

布罗德本特辩称：由于所有这些国家通胀率相对稳定，很难相信各国央行除了跟随中性利率下降以外……还能有其他作为。

At first glance,then, central banks are just following real economic forces while takingaccount, as they should, of recent demand weakness caused by the financialcrisis and the excessive build-up of private debt that preceded it.

因此乍看之下，各国央行只是在顺应实际的经济力量，同时考虑了（这也是他们应该做的）金融危机带来的近年需求疲弱以及之前的私人债务过度累积。

An indication ofthis demand weakness is the persistence of financial surpluses (excesses ofincome over spending) in the private sectors of high-income economies — notablyin Japan, Germany and the eurozone — despite ultra-low interest rates.

表明这种需求疲弱的一个迹象是，尽管利率超低，但高收入国家（尤其是在日本、德国乃至整个欧元区）私人部门持续保持财务盈余（收入超过支出）。

This is why theBank of Japan and the European Central Bank have remained particularlyaggressive.

这就是日本央行(BoJ)和欧洲央行(ECB)依然保持特别激进的原因。

Given thisbackground — the sustained declines in real interest rates, chronically lowinflation and feeble private demand — does a credible alternative set ofpolicies exist?

在这种背景下——实际利率持续下降、通胀长期低企以及私人需求疲弱——存在可信的替代政策组合吗？

One kind ofobjection to present policies is mainly a howl of pain: low interest ratesundermine the business models of banks and insurance companies, lower theincomes of savers, devastate the solvency of pension schemes, raise assetprices and worsen inequality.

有种针对当前政策的反对意见主要是在抱怨：低利率破坏了银行和保险公司的商业模式，降低了储蓄者的收入，摧毁了养老金计划的偿付能力，推升了资产价格，加剧了不平等现象。

As Mark Carney,governor of the Bank of England, noted recently, monetary policy hasdistributional consequences but it is for broader government to offset them ifthey so choose.

正如英国央行行长马克.卡尼(Mark Carney)最近指出的那样，货币政策具有分配后果，但抵消这些后果是广义政府的责任——如果其这么选择。

Whether thegovernment should use fiscal resources to compensate people who hold largeamounts in saving accounts is doubtful.

值得怀疑的是，英国是否应该动用财政资源补偿持有大量储蓄的人。

These are hardlythe poorest.

这些人很难说是最穷的人。

Moreover, to theextent that low rates promote recovery, almost everybody benefits.

此外，就低利率推动了经济复苏而言，几乎所有人都在受益。

The distributionalconsequences of post-crisis monetary policies are also complex.

后危机时代货币政策的分配后果也是复杂的。

In the UK thedistribution of income seems to have become less un-equal, but the distributionof wealth more so, since the crisis.

在英国，自金融危机以来，收入分配不平等程度似乎有所下降，但财富分配不平等程度有所上升。

Lower interestrates need not worsen pension deficits; that depends on what happens to thevalue of assets held by pension funds.

利率下降不一定加剧养老金赤字；它取决于养老基金持有的资产价值表现如何。

Normally, lowerinterest rates should raise the latter.

通常来说，利率下降应该提高资产价值。

What would lowerboth real interest rates and asset prices is greater pessimism about economicprospects.

让实际利率和资产价格全都下降的是对经济前景更加悲观的看法。

Central banks donot cause such pessimism but try to offset it.

各国央行并未导致此类悲观看法，它们只是在努力抵消这种情绪。

Finally, theimpact of low rates, even negative nominal rates, on the business models offinancial intermediaries can be dealt with only by changing those models oreliminating the need for such low rates altogether.

最后，要应对低利率（甚至名义负利率）对金融中介机构商业模式的影响，只有改变那些模式，或者从根本上消除对此类低利率的需要。

A more cogent setof objections is that the policy framework or view of how monetary policy worksis misguided.

一种更能自圆其说的反对意见是，关于货币政策运作方式的政策框架或者观念受到了误导。

The heart of theframework is inflation targeting, which can indeed cause problems — notably ifthe impact of monetary policy on finance is ignored, as happened before thecrisis.

政策框架的核心是以通胀为目标，这的确可能导致问题，尤其是如果像金融危机前那样，忽视货币政策对金融的影响的话。

But it isimpossible to believe that deflation would make managing a world economycharacterised by chronically weak demand any easier.

但如果有人说，通缩将会让长期需求低迷的世界经济变得更容易管理，那是完全不可信的。

On the contrary,deflation could make highly negative nominal rates necessary.

相反，通缩可能促使各国央行有必要将利率降至极大的负值区间。

That would bepractically and politically difficult.

无论是从实际操作还是从政治上来说，这都是非常困难的。

Not only maintainingthe inflation target, but achieving it, is essential.

保持和实现通胀目标都是不可或缺的。

Some even arguethat low rates weaken demand by lowering spending, stalling productivity growthand stimulating private borrowing.

一些人甚至辩称，低利率通过降低支出、阻碍生产率增长并刺激私人借贷，从而削弱了需求。

Yet there is noclear reason why low rates should lower aggregate spending since they merelyshift incomes from creditors to debtors.

然而，没有明显理由表明低利率会降低总体支出，因为它们只是将收入从债权人转移到债务人那里。

Low rates alsomake borrowing cheaper.

低利率也让借款更加便宜。

That shouldstimulate investment and so increase productivity growth.

这应该刺激投资，从而加快生产率增长。

Low rates areindeed intended to make debt more bearable and encourage borrowing andspending.

低利率的确意在让人们更容易忍受债务，并鼓励借款和支出。

If governmentsdislike this mechanism, they need to replace private with public borrowing,ideally in support of investment in infrastructure.

如果政府不喜欢这种机制，它们需要用公共借款取代私人借款，最好是支持基础设施投资。

In addition, theyneed structural reforms, notably in taxation, to encourage private investmentand discourage saving.

此外，它们需要结构性改革（尤其是在税收领域）以鼓励私人投资并抑制储蓄。

Among bighigh-income countries, Germany and Japan most need such structural reforms.

在大型高收入国家当中，德国和日本最需要此类结构性改革。

What Mrs May hasdone so far is cause confusion.

梅迄今所做的只是引起困惑。

It is a mistakefor a head of government to criticise a central bank in its efforts to achievethe target the government itself has set.

一个政府首脑抨击央行努力实现政府自己制定的目标是错误的。

Moreover, there isno good reason to believe the BoE is going about its mandate in the wrong way.

此外，没有好的理由认为，英国央行在以错误的方式履行其职责。

If, however, thegovernment wants to change that mandate, then this requires careful thought.

然而，如果英国政府想要改变这种职责，那是需要认真考虑的。

All changes createbig risks.

所有的改变都会带来巨大的风险。

Throw-away linesare simply the wrong way to start this, particularly given Brexit.

脱口而出的风凉话是启动这一进程的错误方式，尤其是考虑到英国退欧的大背景。

Finally, if thegovernment wants to shield the losers from monetary policy, it must weigh otherclaims on its scarce resources.

最后，如果英国政府想要保护输家免受货币政策的影响，那就必须权衡其他方面对稀缺资源的要求。

If, however, itwants to lighten the load on monetary policy, let us cry Hallelujah.

然而，如果英国政府希望减轻货币政策的负担，那就让我们欢呼吧。

It is past timethat governments examined the combination of fiscal policy, debt restructuringand structural reforms that could help central banks deliver the vigorouseconomic growth the world economy still needs.

各国政府早就应该考虑财政政策、债务重组和结构性改革这些组合措施，它们有望帮助央行兑现世界经济仍然需要的强劲增长。