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日韩慰安妇协议对东亚有何影响

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日韩慰安妇协议对东亚有何影响

Japan and South Korea have agreed to settle the issue of wartime “comfort women” in a landmark deal that could transform ties between the neighbours and reshape the diplomatic map of East Asia.

日和韩国已就解决战时“慰安妇”问题达成协议,这一里程碑式的协议可能会彻底改变这两个邻国之间的关系、重塑东亚外交版图。

Under the accord, Japan will pay $8.3m into a fund for surviving victims, based on “painful awareness” of its responsibilities for the system of forced prostitution during the second world war. The deal promises a “final and irrevocable” settlement to an issue that has scarred relations between the two main US allies in East Asia and provided an effective diplomatic tool to China.

根据协议,日本将向一支为依然健在的受害者设立的基金出资830万美元,理由是日方“痛苦地意识到”要为二战期间的强制卖淫制度负责。这一协议有可能“最终且不可逆转地”解决慰安妇问题。该问题为美国在东亚的两个主要盟友之间的关系留下了伤痕,并为中国提供了一个有效的外交工具。

What are the regional implications?

这份协议会给该地区带来哪些影响?

Analysts say the deal could have a negative impact on Seoul’s relationship with Beijing, which has been strengthened by the visit by Park Geun-hye, South Korean president, to Beijing in September to attend a military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the end of the second world war.

分析人士认为,该协议可能会对首尔与北京的关系产生负面影响。今年9月,韩国总统朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)访问北京,出席了纪念二战结束70周年的阅兵式,巩固了韩中两国关系。

Although Seoul has attempted to balance its relationships with China and the US, Ms Park’s attendance at the parade gave the impression that Seoul was shifting more towards Beijing for economic reasons.

虽然首尔方面一直试图平衡韩中和韩美关系,但朴槿惠出席那次阅兵仪式给人的印象是,首尔方面正由于经济原因而更多地倒向北京方面。

Even if the deal does not last, Japan may reap diplomatic benefits in the short term from Mr Abe’s willingness to compromise, undermining China’s efforts to portray Tokyo as unrepentant for its second world war atrocities.

即使这份协议维持不下去,日本也仍可从安倍(Abe)的妥协意愿中收获短期的外交利益,削弱了中国所持的、日本政府对二战暴行毫无悔意的论调。

What are the benefits of rapprochement between Seoul and Tokyo?

日韩和解有哪些好处?

The deal is likely to help Seoul and Tokyo overcome their political differences and enhance their security alliance against North Korea. There are high expectations for stronger bilateral intelligence-sharing on North Korea, with the comfort women issue being the biggest stumbling block to improving bilateral relations.

这份协议很可能会帮助韩日两国政府克服政治分歧,强化它们防范朝鲜的安全同盟。人们对两国政府就朝鲜问题加强双边情报交流抱有很高的期待,但慰安妇问题一直是妨碍韩日双边关系改善的最大绊脚石。

The two countries signed a trilateral intelligence-sharing agreement with Washington last December to better cope with North Korea’s military threats but the agreement allowed them to share intelligence via Washington only on Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programmes. However, the recent thawing of relations could enable Seoul to gain better access to Japanese intelligence and boost its surveillance of North Korea.

去年12月,韩日两国与美国政府签订了三边情报共享协议,以更好地应对朝鲜的军事威胁。但该协议只是让韩日两国能就朝鲜核计划与导弹计划经由华盛顿方面分享情报。而最近韩日两国关系的解冻,可能会让首尔方面能够更容易地获取日方的情报,加强对朝鲜的监视。

Will this affect Korea’s hopes of joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership?

这会影响韩国加入《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)的前景吗?

Seoul expressed its desire to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations in November 2013, when talks were already under way, and was told by Washington it would need to wait until these discussions had concluded.

韩国政府在2013年11月就表达了加入TPP谈判的愿望(当时相关谈判已在进行当中),而华盛顿方面告诉韩国政府,需要等到相关谈判完成后再讨论韩国加入的问题。

A preliminary deal was reached among the 12 initial members in October, but South Korea’s entry to the trade pact will require consensus among the existing signatories — another benefit to better relations with Tokyo.

今年10月,TPP的12个初始成员国达成了初步协议,而韩国要想加入该贸易协定将需要现有的签字国一致同意——这是与东京方面改善关系的另一个好处。

What prompted South Korea to agree to the deal?

是什么促使韩国同意这份协议?

Seoul has been pressured by the US to improve relations with Tokyo. Better relations between the two countries are vital to Washington’s efforts to guard against China’s ascent in the region and to cope with North Korea’s increasing military threats.

首尔方面一直受到美国的压力,要其改善与东京方面的关系。韩日关系的改善,对于美国防范中国在东亚崛起和对付朝鲜与日俱增的军事威胁来说意义重大。

Seoul was also pressed by a lack of time as it is keen to resolve the issue while some of the former sex slaves are still alive, giving the South Korean government some leverage in negotiating with Japan.

韩国政府面临的另一个压力是,时间不等人。它急于在一些前慰安妇仍健在时解决该问题,这些人的存在让它与日本谈判时能占据一些优势。

What are the main differences between this deal and former agreements?

这份协议与之前的协议有什么主要区别?

The agreement follows a 1993 apology by Yohei Kono, Japanese chief cabinet secretary, which was accompanied by the establishment of a compensation fund. But that apology failed to accept full state responsibility, while the compensation came from private sources, with the government contributing only administrative costs.

这份协议遵循了1993年日本内阁官房长官河野洋平(Yohei Kono)作出的道歉,当时还随之建立了一支赔偿基金。但那次道歉没有认可慰安妇问题为完全的国家责任,赔偿金也来自民间渠道,日本政府仅负担管理成本。

Tokyo still refuses to accept any legal liability on this subject, arguing that any such obligations related to its 35-year occupation of Korea were settled by a 1965 treaty normalising relations with Seoul in which Japan provided $800m in aid.

日本政府仍拒绝在慰安妇问题上承担任何法律责任,辩称任何这类与日本对朝鲜半岛的35年占领有关的责任,都已在1965年与首尔方面签订的日韩邦交正常化条约中得到了结。根据该条约,日本向韩国提供了8亿美元援助。

Under this week’s deal, the compensation payments will be funded by the state, unlike the earlier fund. However, it will be given as humanitarian aid, rather than legal reparations.

根据本周的协议,赔偿金将由日本政府提供,这与之前的民间资金不同。不过,这笔钱将以人道主义援助、而不是法律赔偿名义提供。

Furthermore, the text of Japan’s apology repeated the language of the Kono statement, admitting only “the involvement of the Japanese military authorities at that time”, rather than claiming responsibility.

此外,日本此次道歉的内容重复了河野谈话的措辞,只承认“当时的日本军事当局有参与”,而没有宣称对此负责。

Could this cause political problems at home for Ms Park?

这会给朴槿惠在国内造成政治问题吗?

Ms Park and her party could face a backlash in next April’s parliamentary elections. She has already been criticised for following in the footsteps of her father Park Chung-hee, the former military dictator who served as an officer in the Japanese Imperial army. He signed the 1965 treaty by which South Korea normalised relations with Japan and renounced legal claims against the former colonial ruler.

朴槿惠和她所在的政党在明年4月的议会选举中可能会面临强烈反对。她已然因追随其父朴正熙(Park Chung-hee)的脚步而遭到了批评。朴正熙是一名军事独裁者,曾任日本帝国陆军军官,正是他签署了1965年韩日邦交正常化条约,同意放弃对前殖民统治者日本的法律赔偿要求。

But the political setback is unlikely to be fatal because the ruling party, which holds a majority in parliament, still enjoys high approval ratings while the main opposition party has been gripped by political infighting. Ms Park is barred by law from seeking another term in the next presidential election in 2017.

不过,这一政治挫折不太可能造成致命后果,因为眼下在韩国议会中占据多数席位的执政党仍享有很高的支持率,而主要反对党一直被政治内斗缠身。依照韩国法律,朴槿惠不能在2017年举行的下届总统选举中寻求连任。