印度难以很快超越中国,虽经济相对亮眼

The truth may finally be wearing off the old saying that India only ever compares itself with itself. As the Indian economy has proved to be one of the least dim spots in a gloomy emerging market landscape, boasts are multiplying that it is overtaking China as the engine of world expansion. Jayant Sinha, India's junior finance minister, recently laid down the bold prediction that "in coming days, India will leave China behind as far as growth and development matter'.

人们老说，印度永远只是自己与自己比较，这句话或许终于开始站不住脚了。在一片灰暗的新兴市场图景中，印度经济事实上相对比较亮眼，于是印度将取代中国成为世界增长引擎的吹嘘也越来越多。印度副财长贾扬特·辛哈(Jayant Sinha)最近大胆预测称，“用不了多久，印度就将在增长和发展方面把中国甩在身后。”。

Not, as it were, so fast. While India's short-term macroeconomic performance has put it at a better place in the cycle than most big emerging markets, the longer-term structural problems that have kept it in a lower growth class than China unfortunately persist, as do the political elephant traps awaiting intrepid reformers.

这么说吧，就算印度能把中国甩在身后，也不会那么快。尽管印度宏观经济短期表现抢眼，让它在周期中的位置好于大多数的大型新兴市场，但较长期的结构性问题令人遗憾地一直存在（该问题让印度与中国相比处于较低的增长级别），摆在无畏改革家面前的政治上的大象陷阱同样如此。

On the face of it, the Indian economy is performing well, and the popularity of Narendra Modi, the prime minister elected on the promise of liberalising reform last year, is holding up. Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, has referred to India as a "bright spot" in the slowing global economy. Growth equalled China's last year at 7.3 per cent, and the IMF predicts India will be the fastest-growing large economy in the world this year.

表面看来，印度经济表现良好，去年凭借承诺推行自由化改革而当选的印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)，如今依然深受民众欢迎。国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)认为印度是不断放缓的全球经济中的一个“亮点”。印度去年的增长率与中国相当，都是7.3%，IMF预测，印度今年将成为全球增长最快的大型经济体。

The reality is less encouraging. For one, the statistics may quite simply be wrong. A new data series for GDP introduced in February did much of the work in raising India's growth rate near China's, and the numbers, with a short history and without detailed data to underpin them, sit at odds with other indicators such as industrial production and imports.

现实情况则没有那么乐观。一方面，统计数据很可能是错的。印度今年2月引入的一个新的GDP数据系列调高了它去年的增长率，对该数据赶上中国起到了很大作用，这些数值历史短暂，没有详细的基础数据作支撑，而且与工业产值和进口等其他指标相冲突。

Second, the current conjuncture has been delivered by a number of one-off factors. The falling global oil price since late 2014 has benefited India both in holding down inflation and in helping Mr Modi reform public finances by cutting expensive government fuel subsidies without raising the price to consumers.

其次，印度去年增长率赶上中国是一系列一次性因素造就的。自2014年末以来，全球油价“跌跌不休”，这让印度从两方面受益，一方面通胀得到抑制，另一方面莫迪的公共财政改革具备了比较有利的条件，让他能够在不用向消费者提高价格的情况下削减昂贵的政府燃料补贴。

Third, substantial impediments remain to the challenge of increasing investment, particularly in infrastructure, to unlock India's potential for competing with east Asian countries for the manufacturing industry currently being priced out of China by rising wages and costs. Growth in manufacturing came to a halt between 2012 and 2014 after several years of expansion, casting severe doubts on its underlying momentum.

第三，在眼下中国工资水平和成本不断上升，导致制造业被迫撤离之际，印度希望增加投资（尤其是基础设施方面的投资），以释放自己的潜力，与亚洲东部国家竞争、吸引从中国撤离出来的制造业落户。要实现这个愿望，印度依然面临重大障碍。在数年扩张之后，印度制造业增长在2012年至2014年间出现停滞，令人严重怀疑其潜在动能。

Certainly, macroeconomic policy has improved compared with earlier eras. Fiscal and current account deficits remain manageable. The Reserve Bank of India, which has traditionally struggled with a multiplicity of targets and instruments, adopted a more conventional model, targeting consumer price inflation using the short-term interest rate. Under Raghuram Rajan, who took over as governor in 2013, the RBI got on top of inflation by rapidly raising rates. It has now been able to cut them by 125 basis points to stimulate growth while other EM countries such as Turkey and Brazil have had to tighten.

当然，与早些时期相比，宏观经济政策已经有所改善。财政赤字和经常账户逆差依然可控。从传统上来说，印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)处理不好多样化的目标和工具，它采取了更为常规的模型，使用短期利率来控制居民消费价格指数(CPI)。拉古拉姆·拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)于2013年出任印度央行行长，在他的领导下，该行通过迅速提高利率控制住了通胀。现在印度央行能够降息125个基点来刺激增长，而土耳其和巴西等其他新兴市场国家则不得不紧缩。

But the RBI statement accompanying its latest cut, a larger-than-expected 50 basis points on September 29, made quite clear that the contribution of monetary policy to growth was running out of room. Mr Rajan said: "While the Reserve Bank's stance will continue to be accommodative, the focus of monetary action for the near term will shift to working with the Government to ensure that impediments to banks passing on the bulk of the cumulative 125 basis points cut in the policy rate are removed."

但是，伴随着最近一次降息——9月29日利率下调50个基点，超出市场预期——印度央行的声明已经相当明确地表明，货币政策对增长的贡献空间正逐步用尽。拉詹称，“尽管印度央行将继续维持宽松立场，但近期货币举措的重点将转向与政府一道努力，以确保阻碍银行将125个基点的渐增式政策性利率下调大部分传递下去的障碍得到清除。”

Indeed, problems in the banking sector are exactly one of the problems holding back investment. State-controlled banks have overlent, often under political inducement, to failed infrastructure projects, and overall the accretion of bad loans in the system is blocking the extension of fresh credit. The state banks will need new capital over the next few years, the government wanting nearly two-thirds of it to be raised from markets, but whether that will permit the widescale rationalisation and privatisation that many banks need remains to be seen.

的确，银行业的问题正是阻碍投资的因素之一。国有银行在失败的基础设施建设项目上过度放贷（通常是在政治原因诱导下），而且银行体系内累积的整体坏账正阻碍着新贷款的发放。未来数年，国有银行将需要新资本——政府希望从市场筹集其中的三分之二——但是这是否会使得许多银行得以实施它们亟需的普遍重组和私有化，仍有待观察。

There is a problem with the demand for investment lending as well as the supply. India has always struggled to expand its industrial sector on a scale to match the fast-growing economies of east Asia, and the share of manufacturing in the Indian economy appears to have stalled at a lower rate than for other emerging economies.

投资贷款的需求和供应都存在一个问题。印度一直难以将自己的工业部门扩大至可以与快速增长的东亚经济体相抗衡的规模，同时制造业在印度经济中所占份额的增长速度似乎已经在低于其他新兴经济体的水平上陷入停滞。

Alongside poor supporting infrastructure, one of the reasons has almost certainly been the difficulty of acquiring land for industrial development, given the complexity of antiquated land laws. Long before Mr Modi came to power, the problem was symbolised by Tata being forced to relocate the manufacturing plant for its Nano car across India after it was driven out of its initial site in West Bengal by angry locals, raising the cost of the project.

除了基础设施不完善之外，鉴于印度过时的土地法的复杂性，几乎可以肯定地说，工业开发用地难以获得也是阻碍印度制造业发展的一个原因。这一问题可以以塔塔(Tata)迁厂事件为代表。那还是在莫迪上台之前，当时，因为当地人抗议，塔塔被迫放弃在西孟加拉邦(West Bengal)建Nano汽车生产厂，将厂址迁往印度别处，使得项目成本增加。

Reforming land acquisition laws was one of Mr Modi's signature projects as prime minister. But a change in the law, along with the introduction of a value-added “Goods and Services Tax”, stalled this summer in a session of parliament dominated by corruption scandals rather than legislative progress. Without the ability to build large-scale industrial plants near a source of workers, any Indian push into manufacturing is likely to be dominated by capital-intensive projects that provide fewer jobs.

对土地征用法律进行改革是莫迪作为总理的标志性项目之一。但是修订法律、以及引入增值性“商品及服务税”(GST)的议案，今年夏天在腐败丑闻缠身、打乱立法议程的议会会期中搁浅。考虑到企业无法在劳动力密集地区附近建设大型工厂，印度推动制造业发展的任何努力可能都会以提供较少就业的资本密集型项目为主。

Mr Modi's government insists it will push on with reform but, given the snarl-ups in parliament over the summer, his political space is shrinking. An important test of his government's political momentum comes next month in the state elections in Bihar. The eastern state has long been one of India's poorest and, while it has been growing rapidly, it has struggled to expand its manufacturing sector. If Mr Modi's message of clearing away the impediments to investment does not resonate, it does not bode well for his chances of maintaining momentum into next year.

莫迪政府坚称将继续推进改革，但是考虑到整个夏天议会的混乱，他的政治操作空间正在缩小。在下个月比哈尔邦(Bihar)的议会选举中，莫迪政府的政治劲头将迎来重要考验。位于印度东部的比哈尔邦长期以来一直是印度最贫困的邦之一，尽管目前正在迅速增长，但比哈尔一直难以扩大其制造业。如果莫迪清除投资障碍的信息没能在比哈尔引起共鸣，这对莫迪明年能否继续维持其政治劲头将不是个好兆头。

For the moment, it seems that India will be happy being regarded as a standout in the otherwise disappointing emerging market class. If its cyclical advantage fades and it returns to its familiar sub-China levels of growth, its politicians are unlikely to be so vainglorious.

目前，印度似乎会满足于被认为在整体令人失望的新兴市场经济体中一枝独秀。如果印度的周期性优势消失，它回到它并不陌生的低于中国的经济增速水平，那印度的政界人士可能就不会如此洋洋自得了。