印度重获“增长最快的大型经济体”称号

India has regained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, after figures confirmed it grew by More than 7 per cent on an annualised basis in the three months to December, overtaking China once more.

印度重获“世界增长最快的大型经济体”称号，此前数据证实，在截至去年12月的三个月内，印度经济同比增长7%以上，再次跑赢中国。

Data released yesterday show the economy grew at an annual rate of 7.2 per cent in the final quarter of last year, continuing its bounceback from a sharp slowdown in the middle of 2017. The Chinese economy grew 6.8 per cent on an annualised basis over the same period.

昨日公布的数据显示，去年末季印度经济同比增长7.2%，延续从2017年年中大幅放缓的反弹。同期中国经济同比增长6.8%。

The data are a boost for Narendra Modi, prime minister, who has come under pressure because of the economic slowdown, ahead of a general election due next year. The news also comes as a welcome relief following a week in which his administration has been attacked for failing to prevent a $1.8bn fraud at the state-owned Punjab National Bank.

这些数据对印度总理纳伦德拉?莫迪(Narendra Modi)是一个助力，他在明年大选之前由于经济放缓而受到压力。在经历了难熬的一周——其间他的政府受到指责，被指未能防止国有的旁遮普国家银行(Punjab National Bank)遭遇18亿美元欺诈——之后，这个消息也让莫迪政府欣慰地松了口气。

Piyush Goyal, the railways minister who is seen as close to Mr Modi, welcomed yesterday’s figures, tweeting: “India’s GDP growth momentum continues strongly & sustainably — jumps to 7.2% in 3rd quarter of 2017-18, makes India the fastest growing large economy in the world.”

被视为与莫迪关系密切的铁道部长皮尤什?戈亚尔(Piyush Goyal)对昨日的数据表示欢迎。他在Twitter上写道：“印度的GDP增长势头保持强劲且可持续——在2017-18财年的第三季度跃升至7.2%，使印度成为世界上增长最快的大型经济体”。

Pronab Sen, the country’s former chief statistician, called the figures “very strong — much stronger than expected”.

印度前首席统计师普罗纳布?森(Pronab Sen)形容这些数字“非常强劲——比预期强劲得多”。

Mr Modi came to power in 2014 promising economic reforms that would help boost the economy and create 10m jobs a year, just shy of the estimated 13m India needs to account for the number of young people entering the workforce each year.

莫迪于2014年上台执政，承诺推行经济改革，以促进经济发展，每年创造1000万个就业机会，仅略低于印度每年需要为进入劳动力市场的1300万年轻人提供的就业岗位。

But his record had come under fire following his sudden decision in 2016 to cancel most of the country’s banknotes, followed by a botched attempt to reform the complex sales tax system.

但在他于2016年突然决定废止印度的大部分纸币、随后又搞砸了对复杂的销售税制度的改革后，他的政绩受到抨击。

The problems arising from both of these moves helped knock the economy off course last year, as it fell from growth of 9.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2016 to just 5.7 per cent in the three months to June 2017.

这两个举措带来的问题在一定程度上导致印度经济去年骤然放缓，增速从2016年第一季度的9.1%降至2017年第二季度的5.7%。

Last month, Arun Jaitley, the finance minister, attempted to mitigate some of the effects of the slowdown as he announced a budget which included higher minimum prices for farmers and free health insurance for 100m poor families.

上月，印度财长阿伦?亚特力(Arun Jaitley)试图缓解经济放缓的一部分影响。他宣布一项预算，其中包括调高面向农户的最低收购价格以及为1亿贫困家庭提供免费医保。

That slowdown was reversed in the third quarter of last year, and yesterday’s data showed the improvement con-tinued in the following quarter.

经济放缓在去年第三季度发生逆转，昨日数据显示接下来那个季度的经济形势继续好转。

The most recent quarter’s data were boosted in particular by a recovery in construction, which ex-panded 6.8 per cent. This had been one of the sectors to suffer most in the wake of demonetisation, with many of India’s property deals having previously been paid for in cash as a way to avoid tax. Manufacturing meanwhile grew 8.1 per cent, while the country’s important agricultural sector was 4.1 per cent larger.

最近一个季度的数据尤其受到建筑业复苏的推动，该行业扩张6.8%。此前这是遭受“废钞令”最沉重打击的行业之一，因为以往印度有很多房地产交易以现金支付，作为一种避税手段。与此同时制造业增长8.1%，而印度重要的农业部门增长4.1%。

Earlier in the day, the credit rating agency Moody’s had said that it expected India to grow by 7.6 per cent in 2018.

当日早些时候，信用评级机构穆迪(Moody’s)表示，预计2018年印度经济将增长7.6%。

It said: “There are some signs that the Indian economy is starting to recover from the soft growth patch attributed to the negative impact of the demonetisation undertaken in 2016 and disruption related to last year’s rollout of the Goods and Service Tax.”

该机构称：“有迹象显示，印度经济正开始从一段疲弱增长期复苏，这段疲弱时期可归因于2016年废钞举措的负面影响，以及与去年出台商品和服务税有关的扰乱。”

The International Monetary Fund has forecast India will grow by 7.4 per cent in 2018 and 7.8 per cent in 2019.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测，2018年印度经济将增长7.4%，2019年将增长7.8%。