中国经济增长比去杠杆化更重要
China’s record expansion of credit in January reveals Beijing’s policy priorities. It sees avoiding a “hard landing” for the economy as more critical than imposing control over what some analysts call a debt “bubble”.
中国1月份创纪录的信贷扩张揭示了北京方面的政策重点。在它看来，比起控制住一些分析师所称的债务“泡沫”，避免经济“硬着陆”才更为关键。
Several other strands of China’s broader economic policy were also discernible in the January lending numbers. Beijing wants to funnel relief to debt-laden companies, crank up investment, boost the property market, pay off foreign loans and use the bond market to effectively bail out local governments.
从1月的贷款数字中还能看出中国整体经济政策的其他几条脉络。北京方面希望向负债累累的企业输送救济，加大投资，提振楼市，偿清外债，并利用债券市场有效地为地方政府纾困。
“This strategy [is to] help avoid a hard landing in the economy in 2016, though at the cost of continuing to fuel the credit bubble,” wrote David Hensley of JPMorgan in a research note.
摩根大通(JPMorgan)的大卫亨斯利(David Hensley)在一份研究报告中写道：“该战略是为了帮助避免2016年出现经济硬着陆，尽管要付出继续推动信贷泡沫的代价。”
Though the jump in lending was partly driven by seasonal influences, it was clear from the composition of lending that Beijing, which wields considerable influence over its financial sector, was also seeking to stimulate activity in the real economy.
虽然贷款跃升在一定程度上是季节性因素促成的，但从贷款构成可明显看出，对国内金融业有相当大影响力的政府，也在寻求刺激实体经济的活动。
Medium and long-term corporate loan growth — the portion of lending that tends to be channelled most directly to long-term productive investments — rose sharply, rising 205 per cent month-on-month and 73.2 per cent year-on-year to Rmb1.06tn ($162.6bn).
中期和长期企业贷款大幅上涨，环比上升205%，同比上升73.2%，至1.06万亿元人民币（合1626亿美元）。这部分贷款往往大都直接投向长期生产性投资。
“This suggests that lending to infrastructure projects is increasing and that earlier bottlenecks in the funding of these projects are being cleared,” according to a research note from FT Confidential Research, a unit of the Financial Times.
据英国《金融时报》旗下“投资参考”(FT Confidential Research)的一份研究报告，“这似乎表明，对基础设施项目的放贷正在增加，这些项目此前的资金瓶颈正被疏通。”
Total renminbi loans rose to a monthly record high of Rmb2.51tn in January, up from Rmb597.8bn in December to form the main portion of a total Rmb3.42tn in total social financing (TSF), the broadest official measure of credit expansion. This figure, also a monthly record, was nearly double the Rmb1.81tn in December’s TSF.
去年12月人民币贷款总量为5978亿元人民币，今年1月份升至2.51万亿元人民币（创下单月最高纪录），这构成3.42万亿元人民币社会融资总量(TSF)——覆盖面最广的官方信贷扩张指标——的主要部分。该数字几乎是去年12月1.81万亿元人民币社会融资总量的两倍，同样创下单月最高纪录。
Policymakers had been seeking to strike a balance between encouraging gross domestic product growth without exacerbating longer-term risks from excessive debt. January’s numbers have revealed that their immediate priority lies with generating growth, though analysts said it would be unthinkable for January’s high levels to continue all year.
此前中国的政策制定者一直在寻求取得平衡，他们希望在不加剧过度债务较长期风险的前提下，鼓励国内生产总值(GDP)增长。1月的数字揭示了他们的当前重点在于促进增长，尽管分析师们表示1月的高水平不太可能持续全年。
Indeed, local media reported in late January that central bank officials told commercial banks to slow the pace of lending following a flood of credit in the initial weeks of the year.
的确，据中国媒体报道，继今年开头几周的信贷大潮后，中国央行官员在1月下旬指示商业银行减缓放贷速度。
Bond issuance rose sharply in line with Beijing’s strategy of promoting direct financing to alleviate stress on the banking system, which suffers from proliferating non-performing and overdue loans. China’s bond market grew by 34 per cent in size last year, its fastest pace since 2008.
债券发行大幅增长，这符合北京方面促进直接融资以缓解银行体系压力的战略，中国的银行体系正遭遇不良贷款和逾期贷款激增的问题。去年中国债券市场规模增长了34%，这是2008年以来最快增速。
In January, corporate bond issuance picked up to Rmb454.7bn, compared with Rmb356bn in December as companies used bonds to help repay outstanding loans and raise funds to invest.
公司债券发行量从12月的3560亿元人民币增至1月的4547亿元人民币，企业通过债券来偿还贷款和募集投资所需资金。
Beijing was also likely to continue relying on the bond market to alleviate the financial distress of local governments, which have been banned from borrowing from banks or the corporate bond market since the start of last year. Instead, they have been selling municipal bonds, which are not picked up by the TSF numbers, according to Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, a research company.
北京方面也可能继续依靠债券市场来缓解地方政府的财政压力。自去年初开始，地方政府被禁止从银行或者公司债券市场借款。相反，它们一直在发售市政债券；据研究机构凯投宏观(Capital Economics)中国经济学家朱利安埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)介绍，市政债券的发行量并不计入社会融资总量数据。
However, if these muni bond issues are added back in to the TSF numbers, it is clear that overall credit in China has been expanding since mid-2015 (see chart).
然而，如果把这些市政债券发行计入社会融资总量，很明显中国的总体信贷自2015年中期以来一直在扩张（见图）。
Separately, January’s numbers showed a continuation of the shift away from foreign currency lending, as concerns over further renminbi depreciation weighed upon corporations and banks. Foreign currency-denominated loans declined by Rmb172bn. Over seven months, foreign loans have slumped by Rmb859bn in total.
另外，1月份的数据表明了回避外币借贷的趋势延续，原因是对于人民币可能进一步贬值的忧虑让企业和银行感到不安。外币计价贷款下降了1720亿元人民币。7个月期间，外币贷款总共下降了8590亿元人民币。
Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities, said that the People’s Bank of China was likely to keep the renminbi exchange rate relatively stable in order to guide market expectations. “As renminbi depreciation expectations as well as capital outflows start to ease, there is more room for the PBoC to cut the required reserve ratios or interest rates in the near future,” Mr Shen said.
瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)亚洲首席经济学家沈建光表示，中国央行可能会保持人民币汇率相对稳定，以指引市场预期。“随着人民币贬值预期和资本外流开始减轻，央行有更多空间在不久的未来下调法定存款准备金率或者利率，”沈建光表示。
A cut in the required reserve ratio, which defines what proportion of deposits banks should keep with the central bank, has the impact of injecting more liquidity into the economy.
法定存款准备金率定义了银行应该缴存央行的准备金占其存款的比例，下调存款准备金率会向经济注入更多流动性。
Medium to long-term household loans also rose to their highest monthly amount since 2012 in January, in a sign that China’s housing market is gradually recovering from a downturn that began in 2014.
1月，中长期家庭贷款也上升至自2012年以来的月度最高水平，这表明中国的房地产市场正从2014年开始的低迷逐渐复苏。
