汇率战争并非中国制造 A currency skirmish that was not made in China
There was a time when young beggars in the countryside outside Jakarta shunned dollars in favour of Japanese yen. Potential customers in Indonesia, meanwhile, shunned Japanese imports because they were so expensive. If your prosperity depends on finding foreign markets for its products, a strong currency is a curse.
曾经有一段时间，雅加达郊外的小乞丐们会不要美元要日元。同一时间，印度尼西亚的潜在消费者会避开日本进口商品，因为它们实在太贵。如果一国之繁荣依赖于向外国市场出售商品，那么强势货币就是诅咒。
Last week China became the latest country to counter that curse with the charm of competitive devaluation. Beijing tweaked the formula used each day to fix the value of the renminbi against other currencies, triggering the biggest one-day currency move since the mid-1990s. Some analysts said other countries, particularly in Asia, may be forced to follow suit — perhaps setting up a cascade of tit-for-tat devaluations.
上周中国施展出竞争性贬值的法术，成为又一个反抗这一诅咒的国家。北京方面调整了人民币兑美元汇率中间价计算方法，引发自20世纪90年代中期以来人民币单日汇率最大波动。一些分析师表示，其他国家、特别是亚洲国家可能会被迫跟风，或许会导致一连串针锋相对的贬值行动。
Yet China is a latecomer to the currency skirmishes. Before 2005, the value of the renminbi was fixed at a constant rate against the dollar. Since that peg was relaxed, the Chinese redback had risen 25 per cent against the greenback. (It has risen still more steeply against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, and by about 50 per cent against the Japanese yen.) Even the International Monetary Fund no longer finds the currency undervalued.
然而在这场小型汇率冲突中，中国其实是后来者。2005年以前，人民币兑美元汇率是固定的。自从放松与美元挂钩后，人民币对美元已升值25%。（人民币对贸易加权一篮子货币升幅更大，对日元升值了大约50%。）就连国际货币基金组织(IMF)也不再认为人民币低估。
Meanwhile, central banks in the big developed economies have held interest rates at close to zero and used freshly minted cash to buy financial assets in huge quantities, a practice known as quantitative easing. Such policies have become the instruments of choice for governments wishing to drive their currencies down and their exports up.
与此同时，较大发达经济体的央行将利率维持在接近于零的水平，并增印货币大量购买金融资产，这一做法即所谓的量化宽松。对于那些希望本国货币贬值、出口上升的政府来说，该政策已成为他们的首选工具。
Japan, where exports have yet to return to their pre-crisis peak, is a case in point. The country suffered for three years with a sharply appreciating yen, until the Bank of Japan embarked on its own quantitative easing programme in April 2013, which threw that trend into reverse. The Japanese currency has fallen 33 per cent against the US dollar since then. For all the talk of prime minister Shinzo Abe’s “three arrows”, this is the only element of his economic policy that has convincingly taken flight.
日本就是个很好的例子，其出口尚未恢复到危机前的巅峰期。日本经历了三年的日元大幅升值，直到日本央行(Bank of Japan)于2013年4月出台了自己的量化宽松计划，才扭转这一趋势。此后日元兑美元汇率已下跌33%。虽然日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)的“三支箭”引起广泛议论，但他的经济政策中只有这一箭产生了有信服力的效果。
When trade is flourishing and output is growing strongly, there is little harm in such antics. But when the world economy is soft, they are both predatory and dangerous. The gains in exports of one nation come at the expense of others.
当贸易蓬勃发展，经济产出增长强劲之时，这类非常举动不会造成多大伤害。但当全球经济疲软时，这些行为则带有掠夺性和危险性。一国出口之增长，是以牺牲其他国家换来的。
The US Treasury, which has said little about Japan’s extraordinary programme of monetary easing (or, for that matter, the Federal Reserve’s) regularly uses its semi-annual reports to Congress to lambast China for “manipulating” its currency. That is an odd stance.
美国财政部对日本非同寻常的货币宽松计划少有微词（对美联储(Fed)的货币宽松也是），却常常在提交给国会的半年度报告中，严厉谴责中国“操纵”汇率。这是一个奇怪的立场。
For one thing, many Americans have benefited from the Chinese export surge, although it has clearly made life harder for manufacturing workers. Consumers have been able to buy more with their dollars, and borrowers have had access to cheaper financing because China recycles much of its earnings by buying US government debt.
一方面，许多美国人都得益于中国的出口激增，虽然这明显加大了制造业工人的生存难度。消费者可以用手上的美元购买更多商品，而贷款者可以获得利息更低的融资，因为中国将大量贸易顺差用来购买美国国债。
But the oddest thing about the Treasury’s complaints is that China has in fact kept its currency strong — displaying restraint that has earnt it little credit.
但美国财政部这一指控最奇怪的地方，是中国实际上一直维持了人民币的强劲，展现出政府对于货币的控制，却没有收获多少信誉度。
To be sure, Beijing’s motives have not been entirely altruistic. The rest of the world might think of China as a maker of cheap toys and low-end electronics, but a rising renminbi forced Chinese manufacturers to move upmarket. The country is increasingly making its own capital goods instead of importing them from Germany or Japan. It is challenging Samsung and other Korean makers on everything from ships to smartphones. A single Chinese company, Shenzhen-based DJI, WHICH ONE?now accounts for 70 per cent of the world market for small drones.
诚然，中国政府的动机并非是完全没有私心的。全球其他国家可能认为中国是廉价玩具和低端电子产品制造国，但人民币升值迫使中国制造商进军高端市场。中国越来越多地自己制造资本品，而不是从德国或日本进口。它在从船舶到智能手机等所有领域挑战三星(Samsung)以及其他韩国制造商。单单一家总部位于深圳的中国公司——大疆创新公司(DJI)，现在就占据70%的全球小型无人机市场份额。
China’s plan for growth once involved investing heavily in fixed assets and marshalling cheap labour to operate them, exporting manufactured goods to the rest of the world. That has changed. Now Beijing wants an economy that relies more on value-added manufacturing and a shift to domestic consumption and spending on services. That depends on workers earning more and having more income to spend. It cannot be achieved by driving down the price of Chinese goods in foreign markets.
中国的增长计划曾经包括大举投资于固定资产并投入大量廉价劳动力运营它们，向全球其他国家出口制造业产品。现在这种情况已经改变。如今中国政府希望经济更加依赖高附加值制造业，并转向国内消费和服务支出。这有赖于劳动者收入增加且有更多收入可供支出。它不可能靠压低中国商品在外国市场上的价格来实现。
When Beijing has nudged the renminbi lower, its hand has often been forced. After the G20 meetings in Sydney 18 months ago the Chinese currency fell by about 2 per cent, to the vocal ire of the US. Yet at that time, many hedge funds were minting money by borrowing cheap yen and buying assets such as corporate debtXXX priced in renminbi; the Chinese pointed out that there needed to be a two way trade in renminbi, “in accordance with market principles”.
当中国政府推动人民币贬值的时候，它往往是被迫的。在18个月前20国集团(G20)悉尼会议之后，人民币在美国的愤怒声讨之下贬值约2%。然而在当时，许多对冲基金通过借入廉价日元并买入人民币计价的企业债券等资产来获利；中国人指出，人民币有必要“按照市场原则”双向交易。
Last week’s manoeuvre, which was also couched in the language of the market, is unlikely to be the start of a sharp descent for the Chinese currency. Many companies have borrowed dollars offshore; depreciation only makes their debt burden heavier. And authorities do not wish to see dramatic increases in capital outflows.
中国央行上周的举动——也是以市场语言表述的——不太可能是人民币大幅贬值的开始。许多中国公司在海外有美元贷款，人民币贬值只会加重它们的债务负担。而且中国有关部门不希望看到资本外流大幅增加。
But if that proves optimistic and a currency war ensues, history should record that Beijing did not fire the first shot.
但如果事实证明这种观点有些乐观，随后发生了汇率战，历史应该记录的是，中国不是第一个开火的。
