各国央行负利率问题 Why so many policymakers are pushing negative rates

Central banks are dragging their benchmark borrowing costs deeper into negative territory, punishing financials and dragging more than $6tn of top tier government debt below a yield of zero per cent.

各国央行正进一步拖动其基准贷款利率深入负值领域，令金融业受到拖累，还让信用级别最高的逾6万亿美元的政府债务陷入负收益率。

What are they doing?

它们在干么？

It is officially known as the negative interest rate policy or Nirp, and it is eclipsing a zero policy, or Zirp.

该举措的正式名称为负利率政策(Nirp)，它让零利率政策(Zirp)相形见绌。

Switzerland and Denmark have led the charge, while last Thursday Sweden’s Riksbank upped the ante by cutting its main repo rate to minus 0.5 per cent.

打头阵的是瑞士和丹麦，上周四瑞典央行(Riksbank)又加大力度，将指标回购利率调降至负0.5%。

The Bank of Japan’s recent entry into the Nirp camp with minus 0.1 per cent for some reserves has fanned expectations that it has just started a foray below zero.

日本央行(BoJ)近期加入负利率阵营，将部分准备金利率降低到负0.1%，引发预期认为日本央行只是刚刚启动负利率政策。

In the coming months the European Central Bank’s deposit rate is expected to head lower from its current minus 0.3 per cent.

未来几个月欧洲央行(European Central Bank)的存款利率预计会从目前负0.3%的水平继续下调。

Why are they doing it?

它们为什么这样做？

Slumbering inflation pressures and the risk of deflation are worries for policymakers, who want to jump-start growth and help consumers, companies and governments pay down their debt.

沉睡的通胀压力和通缩风险令政策制定者感到担忧，他们想要启动经济增长，帮助消费者、企业和政府偿还各自的债务。

After the financial crisis global interest rates fell and central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, resorted to quantitative easing, buying massive amounts of government debt.

金融危机后全球利率下降，各国央行——尤其是美联储(Fed)和英国央行(Bank of England)——祭出量化宽松政策，大量买入政府债券。

For all that, inflation remains below targets, a trend that is being reinforced by the collapse in commodity prices and concerns over a slowing global economy.

尽管如此，通胀仍低于目标水平，而大宗商品价格崩溃和对全球经济放缓的担忧正在强化这一趋势。

Can rates go much lower?

利率还能更低吗？

In theory there is no limit. But the task of the BoJ and the ECB is being complicated by stronger currencies.

理论上是没有限制的。但日本央行和欧洲央行的任务正因为本币走强而变得复杂化。

Negative rates are viewed as one of the most effective ways to weaken a currency and thus boost inflation expectations, but the opposite is happening for both the euro and the yen.

负利率被视为让货币贬值、从而拉动通胀预期的最有效途径之一，但欧元和日元的情况却截然相反。

After a torrid start to the year led by miners and commodity producers, global equities are being hammered with financials bearing the brunt of selling.

在矿企和大宗商品生产企业今年开局不顺利之后，全球股市遭遇抛售，金融类股票首当其冲。

What are the consequences?

负利率会有什么后果？

A negative rate environment is bad news for bank profits. And in Japan, Europe and the US, share and bond prices for banks have slumped. This runs counter to what Nirp is supposed to achieve.

对于银行利润来说，负利率环境是个坏消息。而且在日本、欧洲和美国，银行的股票和债券价格已经出现下滑，与负利率理应实现的目标背道而驰。

Negative deposit rates are seen as complementing QE by forcing banks to seek more risky lending opportunities and assets to compensate for losses on their interest rate margin.

负存款利率被视作量化宽松的补充，通过迫使银行寻求风险更高的放贷机会和资产，来弥补它们在息差上的损失。

This “portfolio rebalancing effect” should, in theory, spur growth by providing funds to credit-starved parts of the economy and reduce the cost of borrowing for riskier sovereigns and companies.

理论上，这种“投资组合再平衡效应”应该能刺激经济增长，向信贷匮乏的经济部门输送资金，并降低风险较高的主权国家和企业的借款成本。

So where are investors putting their money?

那么投资者把他们的钱都投向了哪里？

About $6tn of government debt sold by Japan and countries in Europe yields below zero. Roughly two-thirds of Japanese government bonds are negative yielding, while in Germany the 10-year Bund yield is just 0.16 per cent.

日本和欧洲各国出售的政府债务中，有6万亿美元左右收益率为负。大约三分之二的日本政府债券都是负收益，德国10年期国债收益率仅为0.16%。

Investors are selling equities and corporate bonds and buying sovereign debt that still has a positive yield. This week there have been dramatic rallies in US and UK bond prices, pushing their 10-year yields below 1.60 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively.

投资者正在抛售股票和企业债券，买入依然处于正收益的主权债务。本周美国和英国债券价格出现急剧反弹，致使两国的10年期国债收益率分别跌破1.6%和1.3%。

Why would you buy a negative-yielding bond?

你为什么会买负收益率的债券？

Call it the “greater fool” theory of investing.

这可以称作投资“博傻”理论。

Buying negative-yielding bonds entails a guaranteed loss if held to maturity. But a trader can still make a profit by selling at a higher price so long as someone else thinks central banks will keep pushing yields further below zero.

购买负收益率债券意味着板上钉钉的赔本——如果持有至到期的话。但只要别人认为央行将继续推动收益率进一步低于零，交易员仍可通过以更高价格售出而获利。