英国大选 市场更应关心的问题

This week’s UK general election looks unlikely to deliver an overwhelming victory for either the Conservatives or the opposition Labour party — which leaves financial market participants unsure of what political climate they will be facing.

无论是保守党还是反对党工党，看起来都不太可能在今天举行的英国大选中获得压倒性胜利，这让金融市场参与者不太确定他们将面临何种政治气候。

But those preoccupied with the implications of the parties’ differing policies on the economy and EU membership may well be worried about the wrong thing. More important, but less appreciated, are the distinct approaches of the main parties — and their allies in any coalition — towards a financial services industry that has yet to restore its credibility after the global crisis.

但有些人总是担心各党派在经济以及是否退出欧盟方面的不同政策对金融市场造成的影响。他们很可能担错了心。更为重要、但仍未得到足够重视的是，主要党派（以及他们可能结盟的党派）对全球金融危机后仍未恢复信誉的金融服务行业采取的不同政策。

Conservative and Labour manifestos propose discrete policies for economic management; yet their ability to implement them is subject to considerable political and economic constraint.

保守党和工党的竞选宣言表明了它们各自不同的经济管理政策，然而它们执行政策的能力受到相当大的政治和经济约束。

With neither party set for a big majority, there is limited scope for radical policy shifts. Neither will wish to put at risk a recovery that is impressive on job creation but, judging from last week’s gross domestic product data, yet to develop secure roots. It is likely the existing approach will be tweaked, with easing of austerity and marginal structural measures to boost productivity and growth.

由于保守党和工党都不会获得压倒性的胜利，根本性政策转变的空间有限。这两个政党都不会希望让经济复苏处于危险之中（英国的经济复苏在就业创造方面表现不错，但从上周发布的国内生产总值(GDP)数据来看，尚未形成稳固的基础—）。现有政策很可能会被调整，例如放松紧缩措施、出台温和的结构性举措，以推动生产率和增长。

In the absence of an ex¬treme partnership involving the Scottish National party or the UK Independence party, the two main parties would probably follow similar approaches to immigration and foreign policy — at least, alike enough for financial markets. The gap appears larger when it comes to the EU.

由于保守党和工党都不会建立将苏格兰民族党(Scottish National Party)或者英国独立党(UK Independence party)包括在内的极端合作关系，两大政党在移民和外交政策方面的做法很可能差不多，至少对金融市场来说足够类似。就是否退出欧盟来说，两党间的分歧似乎更大。

As the Tories promise a referendum on staying in Europe, a win for them would initially bring greater uncertainty. By undermining UK companies’ access to such a large market, an exit would weaken profits. Equities would underperform while bond spreads would widen as markets price in higher volatility risk. Yet it is unlikely that a vote would lead to an exit. It would probably take place after a re-elected Prime Minister David Cameron had secured concessions from fellow European leaders — not enough materially to alter the functioning of the single market but sufficient for the Tories to join other parties in urging continued membership. In such circumstances, UK voters are likely to choose staying in.

由于保守党承诺就是否留在欧盟举行公投，所以，该党赢得大选将会在一开始带来更大的不确定性。退出欧盟将削弱英国公司进入这个巨大市场的能力，从而降低它们的利润。股市将会表现不佳，同时随着市场反映更大的波动性风险，债券息差将会扩大。然而，公投不太可能导致英国退出欧盟。连任的英国首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)将会争取到其他欧洲领导人的让步（其幅度之大还不足以改变单一市场的运行，但足以让保守党加入其他党派行列，敦促英国继续留在欧盟），之后英国可能就会举行公投。在这种情况下，英国选民可能会选择留在欧盟。

Indeed, the biggest likely difference, and the one with the greatest potential financial market impact, lies elsewhere.

实际上，两党最明显、而且对金融市场潜在影响最大的分歧在其他地方。

A Labour government would take a less lenient approach to financial services that are still not widely trusted. It would be more open to tighter regulation, pay limits and pursuing high-profile legal cases. It would engage in spirited debate with companies threatening, like HSBC, to move their headquarters from the UK, and would be less inclined to fight off EU regulation.

工党政府将不会对仍未取得广泛信任的金融服务业心慈手软。它将更愿意加大监管，限制薪酬并提起引人注目的法律诉讼。它将与汇丰(HSBC)等威胁要将总部搬离英国的公司展开激烈的辩论，同时也不愿意挑战欧盟监管法规。

With the sector shrinking as a result, markets would price in higher risk premiums for bonds and equities on account of a possible fall in liquidity levels — that is, tighter constraints on broker-dealers assuming significant counter-cyclical risk as end investors react to changes to fundamentals elsewhere.

金融服务业将因此收缩，鉴于流动性水平可能下降，债券和股票将获得更高的风险溢价，也就是说，随着最终投资者对其他地方的基本面改变作出反应，承担巨大反周期风险的经纪自营商将受到更大约束。

Such an adjustment could be pronounced. Steps to boost growth and validate high financial asset prices, including infrastructure investment and tax reform, would then be needed. The alternative is asset prices that converge to the lower fundamentals, overshoot them and risk contaminating the general economy.

此类调整可能是显而易见的。届时将有必要出台举措促进增长并让基本面跟上拔高的金融资产价格，包括基础设施投资和税收改革。否则资产价格就会向较低的基本面趋同，与基本面相比偏高，还有可能毒害整个经济。

So markets should put worries about traditional questions on the economy and the EU to one side and turn their focus instead to guarding against the gross underpricing of liquidity risk.

因此市场应该将对传统的经济和欧盟问题的担忧搁置一边，将注意力转向防范对流动性风险的普遍低估。