澳大利亚担心中国债务问题会殃及本国

China’s growing debt mountain poses a risk to Australia’s financial stability, a senior politician has warned,

一位资深政治人士警告称，中国不断增加的巨额债务对澳大利亚的金融稳定构成了风险。

just weeks after the continent celebrated a quarter century of growth without a recession.

就在几周之前，澳大利亚刚刚庆祝了自己长达四分之一个世纪的不间断增长（其间未出现过一次衰退）。

China is Australia’s largest trading partner, accounting for A$150bn of two-way trade in 2015.

中国是澳大利亚的最大贸易伙伴，2015年澳大利亚对华进出口总额达到1500亿澳元。

Beijing is also an important foreign investor in Australia, leaving Canberra potentially among the developed nations most exposed to a Chinese downturn.

中国还是澳大利亚重要的外商投资来源，这让澳大利亚成为受中国经济下行影响最严重的发达国家之一。

China’s growing debt in its local government and state-owned enterprise sector were potential vulnerabilities that could end up having an impact on the continent, Scott Morrison, Australian treasurer, said in an interview with the Financial Times.

澳大利亚财长斯科特.莫里森（Scott Morrison，上图）在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示，中国地方政府和国有企业部门不断增加的债务是潜在的隐患，最终可能会对澳大利亚造成冲击。

We are not rose-coloured-glasses optimists about China, Mr Morrison said.

我们不是戴着玫瑰色眼镜看待中国的乐观主义者，莫里森说，

We have a practical and real appreciation about what some of their vulnerabilities are.

我们对中国的一些隐患有切实和深入的了解。

Australia’s warning on Chinese debt follows concerns expressed by the International Monetary Fund and others, including billionaire George Soros,

在澳大利亚就中国债务发出警告之前，国际货币基金组织(IMF)和包括亿万富翁乔治.索罗斯(George Soros)在内的其他各方也就这个问题表示了担忧。

who have warned that adverse shocks in China fuelled by its rising debt levels could spark contagion and hit countries with a high trade exposure to the country.

他们警告称，债务水平不断上升加剧了中国面临的不利冲击，这种冲击可能导致问题扩散，令与中国贸易关系密切的国家遭受打击。

Recent figures showing China’s economy grew 6.7 per cent in the three months to end September suggested there was no immediate risk, Mr Morrison said,

莫里森表示，近期数据显示第三季度中国经济增长了6.7%，这表明没有迫在眉睫的风险。

adding that it was important for Canberra to consolidate its budget deficit in the next five years to build up resilience.

他补充道，对于澳大利亚而言，重要的是在未来五年里整固预算赤字，以增强韧性。

I am not forecasting any change in China but we are very practically minded of the vulnerabilities and what that could convert into — but equally saying they have the capacity to manage it, he said.

我不是在预测中国会出现任何变化，但我们对中国的隐患以及这些隐患可能演变成的局面绝不掉以轻心——但平心而论，他们有能力搞定，他表示。

Mr Morrison said Australia needed to build up its economic resilience to ensure continued prosperity in the face of external shocks.

莫里森表示，澳大利亚需要增强其经济韧性，以确保在面对外部冲击时继续保持繁荣。

He said the government would tackle its budget deficit and promote lower taxes in a bid to boost private demand and build up resilience.

他表示，政府将解决预算赤字，并推动减税，以提振私人部门需求和增强韧性。

In a recent speech in Sydney Mr Morrison said it was also important to reinforce and build on the strength of Australia’s banking and financial sector.

莫里森最近在悉尼的一次演讲中表示，加强和巩固澳大利亚银行和金融部门的实力，也是很重要的。

Australia’s economy is growing at an annual rate of 3.3 per cent of gross domestic product, among the highest in the developed world,

目前，澳大利亚国内生产总值(GDP)的年增长率为3.3%，是发达世界中增长最快的经济体之一。

and has notched up a remarkable quarter of a century of growth without a recession.

而且，澳大利亚实现了长达四分之一个世纪的不间断增长（其间未发生一次衰退），令人瞩目。

Surging exports to China have played a key role in enabling its economy to continue growing even during the financial crisis in 2008,

澳大利亚对华出口的不断飙升，对澳经济哪怕在2008年金融危机期间都得以持续增长起到了关键作用。

when many other countries faltered.

2008年金融危机期间，很多国家都陷入了低迷。

Growth has remained robust despite a slump in commodities prices over the past five years.

尽管过去五年大宗商品价格暴跌，但澳大利亚一直维持着强劲的增长。

A great strength of the Australian economy is that it is so flexible and adapts to the challenges we have, said Mr Morrison,

莫里森指出，澳大利亚的贸易条件指数（terms of trade，衡量一国出口对进口的相对价值）已经比巅峰时跌去逾30%。

who noted that the country’s terms of trade, a measure of the relative value of exports compared with imports, have fallen more than 30 per cent from their peak.

他表示：澳大利亚经济的一大强项在于，它非常有弹性，能适应我们面临的挑战。

Mr Morrison also sounded a warning that record-low interest rates are proving counterproductive in Australia and elsewhere, while rejecting fears a housing bubble is developing in Sydney and Melbourne.

莫里森还警告称，创纪录的低利率在澳大利亚和其他地区事实上起到了反作用，同时他驳斥了关于悉尼和墨尔本正在形成房地产泡沫的担忧。

Since the start of the year, house prices in Sydney and Melbourne have surged 13 per cent and 10 per cent respectively, according to data from Corelogic.

据Corelogic的数据显示，自今年初以来，悉尼和墨尔本的房地产价格分别飙涨13%和10%。

There isn’t one housing market in Australia, there are hundreds of housing markets and to make generalisations is dangerous.

澳大利亚不止有一个房地产市场，这里有成百上千个房地产市场，一概而论是危险的。

It would be a mistake to think those [Sydney and Melbourne] were not sound, he said.

认为那些市场（悉尼和墨尔本）不健康是错误的，他称，

It is hard to make an argument that where house prices are is a function of speculative, finance-driven investment.

这些地方的房价是健康的，说这些地方的房价是被融资驱动的投机活动抬高的很难站得住脚。

What that means is the housing debt is underpinned by real asset values.

我这样说的意思是，房地产债务是有实际资产价值作支撑的。

However, he said there are real housing affordability challenges in Australia for those people seeking to get on to the housing ladder.

然而，他表示，目前澳大利亚的房价确实让那些想要购房的无房者难以承受。

He said increases in housing supply over coming years would see price growth moderate.

他称，未来几年住房供应增加将让房价上涨降温。

Mr Morrison signalled he did not feel that Australian interest rates should be cut beyond their current record low level of 1.5 per cent.

莫里森表示，他不认为澳大利亚应该进一步削减利率——目前的1.5%已经是创纪录低点。

Monetary policy has exhausted its influence, he said.

货币政策的作用已经发挥到头了，他称，

Lower rates have led people to save more, to pay down and offset their debts, rather than necessarily going out and spending in the economy, he said.

降息已经导致人们为偿还和抵消债务而增加储蓄，而不是出去进行必要的支出。

As that has increased over time, the impact of interest rate cuts has on each occasion eroded.

随着这种情况逐渐加剧，降息的效果一次不如一次。

Mr Morrison said loosening monetary policy on a global scale was only bringing forward demand while the real challenge for advanced economies is to facilitate increased private demand.

莫里森称，全球范围内的货币政策放松只是把需求提前，而发达经济体面临的现实挑战是促进私人部门需求提高。

That is why we are so keen on tax arrangements that support investment, he said.

这正是我们急切地想要推出支持投资的税务安排的原因，他表示。

Mr Morrison’s plan to slash corporate tax rates in Australia from 30 to 25 per cent over the next 10 years is likely to be blocked by parliament.

莫里森计划在未来10年将澳大利亚的企业所得税率从30%降至25%，但该计划可能会被议会否决。