西方国家切勿用TPP制衡中国

Selling a free-trade agreement at home is hard work, given public scepticism about their effect on American jobs. So as supporters of the Trans-Pacific Partnership try to round up backers, they increasingly emphasise the geopolitical case for concluding a deal.

在美国国内兜售自由贸易协定是项艰难的工作，因为公众对这类协定对美国就业的影响持怀疑态度。因此，《跨太平洋伙伴关系》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，简称TPP）协定的拥趸们在努力赢取支持者时，日益强调达成协定带来的地缘政治好处。

They are correct that a good trade and investment agreement would be geopolitically beneficial, and that a collapse in the talks would be deeply damaging. But too often they overstate the case — and, in doing so, generate real geopolitical risks of their own, while also jeopardising the agreement they seek.

这些人看法的正确之处在于，好的贸易与投资协定的确会带来地缘政治上的好处，谈判破裂的确会产生严重破坏。但他们往往夸大这个因素的重要性——而且，这种夸大其实也会催生切实的地缘政治风险，危及他们想要达成的协定。

The geopolitical case for TPP is straightforward. It could help US allies in Asia, most notably Japan, reform and thus strengthen their economies, making them more capable geopolitical partners. Asian participants could diversify their economic relationships, becoming less dependent on an unpredictable China. A deal that genuinely offers China the option of eventually joining could also help draw Beijing in a more liberal direction.

TPP的地缘政治好处显而易见。它可帮助美国的亚洲盟国（特别是日本）进行改革，由此加强它们的经济，使它们成为更具实力的地缘政治伙伴。参与TPP的亚洲国家可使它们的经济关系变得更加多元，减少对难以捉摸的中国的依赖。如果该协定真的能为中国提供一个最终加入进来的选择，那么它还有助于把中国拉上一条更加自由化的发展道路。

Conversely, if the talks collapse because of domestic squabbling, it will compound the narrative of US dysfunction, making it far harder for the US to lead. It would also make it easier for China to push its own trade arrangements in ways that exclude the US.

相反，如果美国国内的争吵导致TPP谈判破裂，会让所谓美国机能紊乱的说法变得更有市场，大幅加大美国领导世界的难度，还会让中国更容易推进它那些将美国排除在外的贸易安排。

But selling the TPP by screaming “geopolitics” comes with serious risks. Unless the US is careful, China may come to see the deal as an attempt at economic containment. It is one thing to have a pact that reinforces America’s economic relations with friends and allies; one that encourages China to join after making a set of plausible economic reforms, much as it joined the World Trade Organisation. It is another to present the deal in a confrontational manner as a counterweight to China — the economic counterpart to a military strategy that would seek to keep the country pinned in.

但是，以强调“地缘政治”的方式兜售TPP，也伴随着严重的风险。如果美国不小心行事，中国可能会将该协定视为一个从经济上遏制中国的企图。达成一项加强美国与盟友经济关系、同时鼓励中国在推行一系列合理经济改革后也加入其中（与中国加入世贸组织(WTO)的过程大致相同）的协定是一回事，以对抗性方式搞出一项协定、以此来制衡中国（即从经济上遏制中国，与从军事上遏制中国的战略相对应）则是另一回事。