希拉里问鼎白宫不易 奥巴马身后谁主沉浮
For a while – four years in fact – it looked as though Hillary Clinton had put the past behind her. As America’s top diplomat, she enjoyed by far the highest ratings of any US figure. Her popularity abroad was matched by appreciation at home for the grace with which she buried the hatchet with Barack Obama. Americans most admire politicians who seem to be above politics. Mrs Clinton had a taste of that. Then she quit as secretary of state (to prepare for her second White House bid). She has been losing altitude ever since. The worry among Democrats is her woes are only a foretaste of what is to come. They are probably right.
Like almost every Clinton “scandal”, there is less than meets the eye to revelations that Mrs Clinton used a private account for her official emails. The discovery that she routed her government correspondence through a “homebrew” server is the kind of exposé that sends Washington into a tailspin but barely registers beyond. From the Whitewater investigations during Bill Clinton’s presidency in the 1990s to the ructions over the 2012 Benghazi murders of four US diplomats, the smoking gun is always just beyond reach. Failure to find one is why Whitewater prosecutors were sidetracked into Mr Clinton’s dalliance with Monica Lewinsky. It is also the path by which the Benghazi probes stumbled on Mrs Clinton’s home server.
有人爆出，希拉里曾利用个人账户收发官方电邮。与几乎所有与克林顿夫妇相关的“丑闻”一样，这些爆料不像看上去那么复杂。据悉，她通过设在家中的服务器收发政府邮件，这种爆料在华盛顿引发轩然大波，但除此之外没什么人关心。从比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)上世纪90年代担任总统期间的白水事件(Whitewater)调查，到围绕2012年班加西美国领事馆遇袭案（导致4名美国外交官遇难）的争议，人们总是无法找到确凿的证据证明克林顿夫妇有过错。正因如此，白水事件的检方将矛头转向克林顿与莫尼卡•莱温斯基(Monica Lewinsky)的绯闻。同样，班加西案的调查偶然发现了希拉里安在家中的服务器。With the Clintons there is always some cover-up waiting to be unearthed. Nearly a quarter of a century of probes — from Little Rock to Washington — have failed to bring them down. Yet there is also more to “homebrew” than meets the eye. Mrs Clinton was technically within the law in using a private account. It is possible her home server was more secure than the State Department’s porous system. None of this really matters. To Mrs Clinton’s enemies, the fact that a trove of private emails exist is invitation to conspiracy. It is also an example of how she plays by different rules. Even President Obama uses official email. Mrs Clinton’s pursuers are unlikely to give up until every one of her emails has been subpoenaed.
在克林顿夫妇身上，总有一些被掩盖的事情等着被揭露。近25年的调查（从阿肯色州的小石城到华盛顿）都没能打倒他们。但此次“电邮门”事件要比看上去复杂。从技术上说，希拉里使用个人账户是合法的。她设在家中的服务器可能比美国国务院漏洞百出的系统更安全。这些其实都不重要。对于希拉里的敌人而言，大量私人电邮的存在本身就意味着可能有什么阴谋。这也是她不按常理出牌的一个例子。就连奥巴马总统也使用官方电邮。在希拉里的全部电邮都被传唤之前，追击她的人是不太可能放弃的。
“Homebrew” highlights three big problems facing Mrs Clinton. First, the Democratic party is suffering from Clinton fatigue. Given the lack of exciting alternatives, Democrats have little choice but to stick with her through hell or high water. Some of them would take that literally. The contrast with the Republican field, which is already crowded with names, is stark. Now would be a good moment for an unknown talent from Illinois with a Muslim middle name to take Democrats by storm. But that is unlikely to happen twice. Even among Mrs Clinton’s most loyal backers, the mood is one of grim determination. They are steeling for trial by ordeal — not a coronation.
“电邮门”事件突显出希拉里面临的三大问题。首先，民主党正经历“克林顿”审美疲劳。由于缺乏其他令人振奋的候选人，该党别无选择，只能在任何情况下力挺希拉里。其中一些人真的会竭尽全力。与“人才济济”的共和党相比，这一点相当明显。现在应该有一个来自伊利诺伊州、有一个穆斯林中间名、不知名的人物登场，让民主党振作起来。但这不太可能发现两次。甚至在希拉里最忠实的支持者中，也洋溢着一种坚韧决心的情绪。他们正下决心忍受痛苦的煎熬，而非加冕礼。Second, Mrs Clinton is running against herself, which is the worst of both worlds. The Clintons are at their best with their backs to the wall. Mr Clinton’s finest campaign moment came after he was written off in 1991 only to resurge as the “comeback kid” in the New Hampshire primary. Mrs Clinton’s most electrifying phase was in 2008 after she had been upended by Mr Obama and was fighting for her pride. She won state after state, though it was already too late. This time, Mrs Clinton faces no plausible rival. Once again she is the “inevitable nominee”, with the inflated expectations that brings. If she fails to win each primary convincingly, the sharks will be quick to smell blood.
第二，希拉里正在同自己竞选，这种状况是最糟糕的。克林顿夫妇往往在背水一战时进入最佳状态。克林顿最棒的竞选时刻莫过于1991年他被人放弃希望，却又在新罕布什尔州的初选中卷土重来。希拉里最令人振奋的阶段是在2008年被奥巴马夺走风头之后，继续为自己的尊严而战。她赢得了一个又一个州，尽管已经太迟。这一次，希拉里不再面对任何可信的对手。她再次成为“不可避免的被提名人”，伴随着与之俱来的过高期望。如果她不能令人信服地拿下每一场初选，鲨鱼很快就会闻到血腥。Third, Mrs Clinton’s distrust of the media is self-fulfilling. She has genuine reasons for concern. As First Lady, she was the target of more scurrilous journalism than any figure in recent memory. Madcap books were written about how the Clintons assassinated their enemies and looted public funds. But there was also plenty of legitimate critical journalism. After a while, Mrs Clinton did not seem to know the difference. She shrouded her healthcare reform effort in secrecy, then saw the product picked apart by supposed allies. The wrong lesson was drawn. Mrs Clinton withdrew even further into her circle of trust. Sticking with inveterate loyalists undid her campaign in 2008. It could do so again. To win, she must engage people openly, including the media.
第三，希拉里对媒体的不信任正在自我应验。她有真诚的理由对媒体感到担忧。作为第一夫人，她受到的舆论诽谤比我们近期记忆中的任何人物都要多。一些荒唐的书描写了克林顿夫妇如何暗杀他们的敌人并侵吞公款。但也存在很多正当的批评报道。过了一段时间后，希拉里似乎搞不清它们之间的差别。她把自己的医疗改革努力搞得神神秘秘，结果却看到自己的心血被所谓的盟友说得一文不值。但希拉里吸取了错误的教训。她进一步退缩回自己信任的小圈子。重用坚定支持者毁掉了希拉里2008年的竞选。这种情况可能会再次出现。要获得胜利，她必须公开地与社会各界打交道，包括媒体。There are signs that Mrs Clinton has corrected some of her bad habits. Picking John Podesta to chair her campaign, as she is expected to do, would be a good step. As Mr Obama’s second-term adviser, Mr Podesta helped to reboot a White House that was also damaged by overreliance on insiders. He did much the same for Mr Clinton after he was impeached over the Lewinsky scandal. He will have to dig deep for Mrs Clinton. The New York Times revelation that foreign governments, from Azerbaijan to Qatar, gave money to her husband’s Clinton Foundation while she was secretary of state is unlikely to go away. The “homebrew” scandal has given it stronger legs. Ill-wishers will be scouring Mrs Clinton’s emails for evidence
有迹象显示，希拉里已改正了自己的某些坏习惯。选择约翰•波德斯塔(John Podesta)来主持她的竞选（人们期望她会这么做）将是很好的一步。作为奥巴马第二任期的顾问，波德斯塔帮助重启了因过度信赖内部人士而受损的白宫。他也这样帮助过克林顿，那是在后者因莱温斯基丑闻遭到弹劾之后。他将不得不为希拉里绞尽脑汁。据《纽约时报》(New York Times)披露，希拉里担任国务卿期间，从阿塞拜疆到卡塔尔的外国政府曾向她丈夫的克林顿基金会(Clinton Foundation)捐款。这件事不太可能平息。“电邮门”丑闻助长了它的发酵。幸灾乐祸的人将在希拉里的邮件里搜寻证据，证明她知晓这些捐款。关于她促成了这些捐款的任何线索都可能是致命的。she was aware of such donations. Any hint that she facilitated them could be are still weeks from Mrs Clinton’s official campaign launch — possibly months. Yet it is already encountering heavy turbulence. Democrats have little choice but to climb aboard. They should fasten their seatbelts and put on the headphones. The next 18 months are going to be noisy.
距离希拉里正式启动竞选还有几周——也可能是几个月。但此次竞选已经遭遇了强气流。民主党人别无选择，只能爬上船。他们应该系好安全带、戴上耳机。未来18个月将充满争吵。
