拉登之后 "反恐战争"卷土重来

The “global war on terror” was shot down in a hale of ridicule. Sceptics scoffed that President George W Bush’s GWOT was not global and it was not a war — since terrorism is a tactic, not an enemy. On taking office as US president in 2009, Barack Obama quietly dropped the term.
The GWOT may have been a clumsy phrase and an inexact idea but, sadly, linguistic quibbles have not removed the underlying issue. However you want to label it, the world has a problem with jihadi violence — and it is getting worse.
There are two specific ways in which the threat from militant Islamism has worsened over the past five years. First, jihadi groups are operating in more parts of the world. Second, the frequency of attacks and number of deaths is increasing.
The massacre of 148 people, mainly children, at a school in Peshawar on December 16 was the worst atrocity in Pakistan since 2007. It was followed, this month, by the murder of up to 2,000 people by Boko Haram in Nigeria, and the killing of 17 in two separate attacks in Paris.
Three brutal attacks on three separate continents give the impression that the frequency of Islamist terror attacks is rising. That impression is confirmed by the data.
A recent study by the Rand Corporation identified 49 Salafist-Jihadi groups operating around the world in 2013, compared with 28 in 2007. These groups staged 950 recorded attacks in 2013, up from 100 six years earlier. And that Rand report was published before a big surge in violence in Nigeria. A recent US state department report estimated that 18,000 people were killed by terrorism in 2013 — but also noted that the number of Americans killed was very low and going down.
That decline in the numbers killed by terrorism in the west ensured the problem received only sporadic attention in the US and Europe. But, in the rest of the world, the number of lawless areas in which jihadi militias can freely operate and train has increased.
A decade ago, the main area of concern for western counter-terrorism efforts was Afghanistan and the border areas of Pakistan — with Somalia another significant worry. But now the self-styled Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis) controls a large swath of Syria and Iraq, including Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city.
In Africa, Boko Haram — possibly inspired by the success of Isis — has also seized territory and now controls a part of northern Nigeria the size of Belgium, as well as threatening neighbouring states such as Cameroon and Nigeria. Much of Libya has slipped into violent anarchy and jihadism is also endemic in Yemen.
The obvious questions are why the problem is escalating and what needs to be done. In the solipsistic world of US politics, it is natural for politicians to assume the problem somehow begins in Washington. Democrats cite President Bush’s decision to invade Iraq. The Republicans claim President Obama withdrew from Iraq prematurely.
Actually, recent history teaches ambiguous lessons about the impact of western military intervention. The failure of the US to intervene earlier in Syria is sometimes blamed for the rise of Isis. On the other hand, western military intervention in Libya helped to reduce the country to anarchy — creating space for jihadi groups to thrive. In reality, this is a problem that is not primarily about US foreign policy and the iniquities of the west. In recent years, every single permanent member of the UN Security Council has been hit. The US was struck on September 11 2001. The UK experienced the 7/7 bombings that killed London commuters in 2005. Russia has waged a long and brutal struggle with Chechen jihadis. China has experienced a bombing in Tiananmen Square and killings around the country. Now France has been struck. India, too, is on the frontline.
Tempting as it is for western powers to make common cause with all countries that have been hit by Islamist terror, it is also politically difficult since that potentially involves accepting the Russian narrative on Chechnya, the Israeli narrative on Gaza and the Chinese view of Qinjiang.
The factors behind the recent upsurge in violence include the increased fragility of several states in the aftermath of the revolutions in the Arab world — as well as the amplifying effect of social media, which allows jihadi messages to spread fast and to reach ever-larger audiences.
As Islamist militias have gained ground, so the conflict with them has come increasingly to resemble a conventional war. There are now several parts of the world where regular armies are battling jihadi groups for control of territory. American and European air-forces are bombing Isis. The Nigerian army, aided by troops from Chad and Niger, is fighting Boko Haram — albeit not very effectively. The French army deployed in Mali to beat back a jihadi threat. The Pakistanis, goaded by the attacks on Peshawar, have renewed military action against the Taliban.

“全球反恐战争”曾在一阵奚落中被击落在地。怀疑论者讥笑称，乔治•W•布什(George W Bush)的全球反恐战争并非全球性的，甚至连一场战争都不是，因为恐怖主义是一种战术，而非敌人。2009年巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)就任美国总统后，悄悄地放弃了这种提法。
全球反恐战争或许只是一个蹩脚的提法和一个模糊的构想，但不幸的是，语言上的吹毛求疵并没有消除潜在的问题。不管你给它贴什么样的标签，世界正面临着圣战暴力的问题，而且正在日趋恶化。
在过去5年里，激进伊斯兰主义带来的威胁在两个具体方面已经恶化。首先，圣战组织的活动范围已扩大到世界更多地区。其次，袭击的频率和死亡人数都在增加。
12月16日，巴基斯坦白沙瓦市的一所学校148人（大部分是儿童）遭到屠杀，这是自2007年以来巴基斯坦发生的最残暴的恐怖事件。随后是在本月，多达2000人在尼日利亚被恐怖组织博科圣地(Boko Haram)杀害，另有17人在巴黎发生的两次独立的袭击中遇难。
发生在三个不同大洲的三次残暴的袭击给人们留下的印象是，伊斯兰主义恐怖袭击的频率正在上升。这样的印象得到了数据证实。
兰德公司(Rand Corporation)近期的一项研究发现，2013年有49个伊斯兰教沙拉菲派(Salafist)圣战组织在世界各地活动，而2007年时只有28个。这些组织发动的记录在案的袭击从6年前的100起增加到2013年的950起。兰德的报告发布之后，尼日利亚的暴力事件又呈现大幅激增。美国国务院近期的一份报告估计，2013年有1.8万人死于恐怖主义袭击，但同时指出，被杀害美国人的数量非常低，而且下降。
西方国家被恐怖主义杀害的人数下降，使得这一问题在美国和欧洲只受到零星关注。但在世界其他地方，圣战武装分子能够自由行动和训练的无法律地带的数量已经增多。
10年前，西方反恐努力关注的主要地区是阿富汗以及巴基斯坦边境地区（索马里是另一大担忧对象）。但如今，自封的“伊拉克与黎凡特伊斯兰国”(Isis)控制了叙利亚和伊拉克的大片地区，包括伊拉克第二大城市摩苏尔。
在非洲，博科圣地——或许是受到Isis成功的启发——也占领了土地，目前控制着尼日利亚北部、面积相当于比利时大小的部分地区，同时对喀麦隆等邻国造成了威胁。利比亚大部分地区已陷入混乱的无政府状态，圣战主义在也门的气焰也很嚣张。
显而易见的是，为什么这一问题正在恶化，而我们又需要做什么。在唯我论的美国政治世界里，政客们很自然地认为问题某种程度上产生于华盛顿。民主党批评布什总统入侵伊拉克的决定。而共和党称奥巴马总统过于草率地从伊拉克撤军。
实际上，西方军事干预的影响在近期历史上带来的教训是双面的。Isis的崛起有时被归咎于美国没有更早对叙利亚进行干预。另一方面，西方对利比亚的军事干预却使该国陷入无政府状态，为圣战组织的兴起创造了空间。事实上，从根本上说，这并非美国对外政策以及西方的种种罪恶造成的问题。最近几年，联合国安理会(UN Security Council)每一个常任理事国都遭遇过恐怖袭击。2001年9月11日，美国遭受袭击。2005年，英国经历了伦敦“7.7”爆炸案，造成通勤人员死亡。俄罗斯对车臣的圣战分子发动了长期而残酷的斗争。中国的天安门广场遭受过一次爆炸袭击，全国各地时有暴恐事件发生。如今，法国也遭到了袭击。印度同样也处于恐怖袭击的前线。
与所有遭受伊斯兰主义恐怖袭击的国家联合起来，这对西方国家来说看上去很诱人，但在政治上也有困难，因为这样就会暗含接受俄罗斯对车臣、以色列对加沙以及中国对新疆的种种说辞或态度。
近期暴力事件激增的原因包括，一些国家在阿拉伯世界革命之后变得更加脆弱，以及社交媒体的放大效应，使圣战信息能够快速传播并覆盖更大范围的受众。
随着伊斯兰主义武装分子的发展壮大，与他们的冲突已经越来越像一场常规战争。目前，在世界的几个地区，正规军正在为争夺领土控制权与圣战组织交战。美国与欧洲的空军在对Isis进行空袭。在乍得和尼日尔军队的帮助下，尼日利亚军方正在打击博科圣地——尽管不是非常有效。法军在马里展开部署以击退圣战组织的进攻。白沙瓦的袭击事件促使巴基斯坦人重新开始对塔利班(Taliban)进行军事打击。
长远来看，解决圣战暴力问题更是一场理念之争而非军队间的斗争。但与此同时，打击伊斯兰主义暴恐运动的军事行动正在非洲、亚洲和中东展开。最终结果可能还是要进行一场“反恐战争”。