阿拉伯之春引发自二战以来最大的移民潮

Migrants fleeing the Middle East and north Africa are already risking everything as they try to escape war at home。

从中东和北非逃离的移民，甘冒任何风险逃避发生在家乡的战乱。当货轮Ezadeen号满载数百名移民抵达意大利南部港口克里尼亚诺时，一名男子正在船上等待着。

The two "ghost ships" discovered sailing towards the Italian coast last week with hundreds of migrants – but no crew – on board are just the latest symptom of what experts consider to be the world's largest wave of mass-migration since the end of the second world war.

上周人们发现两艘没有船员的“幽灵船”满载数百移民正驶往意大利海岸。不过这还只是冰山一角。专家们估计自二战结束以来，世界最大一波大规模移民潮已然形成。

Wars in Syria, Libya and Iraq, severe repression in Eritrea, and spiralling instability across much of the Arab world have all contributed to the displacement of around 16.7 million refugees worldwide.

发生在叙利亚、利比亚和伊拉克的战争，发生在厄立特里亚的严重压迫人权行为，以及横贯大部分阿拉伯世界的持续激增的不稳定性，已经为世界贡献了1,670万流动难民。

A further 33.3 million people are "internally displaced" within their own war-torn countries, forcing many of those originally from the Middle East to cross the lesser evil of the Mediterranean in increasingly dangerous ways, all in the distant hope of a better life in Europe.

还有3,330万难民在他们自己被战火蹂躏的家园里流动。这又迫使许多原本来自中东的难民甘冒越来越大的风险，横跨危险性相对较小的地中海，实现其在欧洲过上更好生活的梦想。

"These numbers are unprecedented," said Leonard Doyle, spokesman for the International Organisation for Migration. "In terms of refugees and migrants, nothing has been seen like this since world war two, and even then (the flow of migration) was in the opposite direction."

国际移民组织的发言人莱昂纳多·多伊尔说：“移民人口的数字是空前巨大的。就难民和移民来讲，自从二战以来，还没见过像这样的，即便那个时候移民潮流向相反的方向。”

European politicians believe they can discourage migrants from crossing the Mediterranean simply by reducing rescue operations. But refugees say that the scale of unrest in the Middle East, including in the countries in which they initially sought sanctuary, leaves them with no option but to take their chances at sea.

欧洲的政客们相信他们仅凭削减救援行动就能阻止移民横渡地中海。但是难民们则说在中东，还有在那些他们原先寻求庇护的国家里，局势动荡的规模已经让他们别无选择，只好到大海里试试运气。

More than 45,000 migrants risked their lives crossing the Mediterranean to reach Italy and Malta in 2013, and 700 died doing so. The number of dead rose more than four times in 2014 to 3,224.

2013年就有超过45,000名移民冒着生命危险穿越地中海到达意大利和马耳他，其中700人死亡。而到了2014年死亡人数陡增4倍，达到3,224人。

"We know people who died – they used to live with us," said Qassim, a Syrian refugee in Egypt who now wants to reach Europe. "But we will try again to cross the sea because there's no life for us Syrians here."

昆西姆是一位叙利亚难民，现在在埃及，他想去欧洲。他说：“我们认识那些死了的人，他们以前和我们住在一起。尽管如此，我们还是要再次尝试穿越大海，因为在叙利亚这边已经没法活了。”

In Egypt, up to 300,000 refugees from the Syrian war were initially welcomed with open arms. But after Cairo's sudden regime change in summer 2013, the atmosphere turned drastically, leading to rampant xenophobia against Syriansand increased arrests and detentions of those who, for understandable reasons, did not carry the correct residency paperwork.

在埃及生活着超过300,000名因叙利亚战争流离失所的难民。起初他们是受到欢迎的。但是发生在2013年夏天的那场突如其来的开罗政变，使得（欢迎）气氛急转直下，并直接导致对叙利亚人的疯狂排外。虽然有可理解的原因，但是那些没有符合标准的居留文件的难民，还是遭到逮捕和扣押。

The situation is even worse in Jordan and in Lebanon, which now houses more than 1 million Syrian refugees – more than a fifth of the country's total population.

在约旦和黎巴嫩的情况更糟。因为约旦和黎巴嫩也为1百多万叙利亚难民提供了庇护，而这些难民的总人数已经超过两国人口的1/5。

Their presence has created an unprecedented strain on national resources, leading to the Lebanese government tightening restrictions last week on Syrians entering the country. And while Turkey has simultaneously moved to strengthen refugees' rights, Turkish shores are likely to remain a popular launch pad for migrants looking to reach Europe because of both the comparatively high cost of living, as well as rising xenophobia, particularly in the country's south.

难民的存在让国家资源变得前所未有的紧张，这直接导致上周黎巴嫩政府收紧进入该国的叙利亚难民人数的限制。不过与此同时，土耳其却正在加强难民的权利。土耳其的海岸线，尤其是在土耳其南部的，对那些想去欧洲的移民来说很像一个理想的发射台，因为这边和那边都有相对较高的生活成本和一浪高过一浪的排外浪潮。

Libya, another major point on the migration route from the Middle East and north Africa, is also no longer a safe haven after a civil war erupted there last year. The plight of refugees there, as well as across the region, makes a mockery of those who suggest the wave of migration is caused simply by economic migrants.

利比亚作为中东和北非移民路线上的另一个重要支点，自去年内战爆发，也不再是安全的避难所了。移民在那里遭遇的困境，和他们在该地区其他地方遭遇的困境一样，都在无情地嘲笑着那些认为移民潮仅仅是由经济原因造成的人们。

"If they're economic migrants," asked Doyle, "then how do we explain that after every outbreak of violence and repression we get a new wave of people from the area that's just had that outbreak? Why was it that, in the huge September disaster in the Mediterranean, the people who drowned were Palestinians, just a couple of weeks after the war between Gaza and Israel? And why is it that since last year there has been a steady flow of people from Eritrea, when we know there are serious problems in that country?"

多伊尔问：“如果他们因经济原因而移民，那么我们该如何解释每一轮新的暴力冲突和压迫过后，我们就会从该地区接收一波新的移民，而该地区上一轮暴力冲突才刚结束？还有，为什么加沙和以色列开战才数周，地中海九月沉船事件中溺毙的就都是巴勒斯坦人呢？还有，为什么自从我们知道去年厄立特里亚发生严重问题以来，从那个地方就会有一股持续不断的移民流出来呢？”

But such arguments have yet to convince the British government, which refused last October to help Mediterranean rescue operations, and which by last June had admitted fewer than 150 Syrian refugees.

但是这样的观点并没有说服英国政府。英国政府去年十月就拒绝帮助地中海救援行动，而去年六月也只接收了不到150名叙利亚难民。