俄罗斯对未来没有计划

Speaking at the Valdai Club in Sochi recently, President Vladimir Putin easily dismissed the slogan, "No Putin — No Russia," put forward on the eve of the event by his deputy chief of staff Vyacheslav Volodin. By doing so, Putin showed that he is a "European"leader and not a Central Asian "president for life," contrary to the wishes of officials like din's slogan might work well for a rally in support of United Russia, butit lacks enough substance to serve as the basis of an entire ideology — despite the efforts by some pro-Kremlin commentators who rushed to find profound meaning in it. The problem is that Putin can reel off from memory Russia'sformula for selling gas to Ukraine, quoting the figure right down to the penny,but has no interest in complex ideological n's three-hour speech at Valdai was aimed primarily at the West. It carriedthe spirit of pragmatic realpolitik and was unwavering in asserting that Russiais in the right — a crucial stance for a politician whose popularity rests on his power and bravado.

最近在索契瓦尔代俱乐部，普京总统驳回了一个口号，“没有普金就没有俄罗斯”。这会前被驳回的口号是由他的副参谋长Vyacheslav Volodin提出的。普京此举意在表明他是个“欧洲款”领导人，不是中亚式“终身总统”。相反官员们倒是挺喜欢Volodin的口号。Volodin的口号在加强俄罗斯统一的凝聚力上也许会很有效，但整个思想体系缺乏物质基础——匆匆赶来的亲克里姆林派评论家们觉得这种尝试意义深远。但问题是，普金能够照俄罗斯原方案给乌克兰卖天然气，参考数据走向来赚小钱钱，却对构建复杂的意识形态没有兴趣。普京在瓦尔代近三个小时的演讲主要内容是西方。他以一贯务实又实用的精神坚定不移的宣布俄罗斯的政治主张是正确的——一个立场坚定的政治家受欢迎程度取决于他的能力和勇气。

Putin conveyed that the West, and particularly the U.S., had mortally offended Russia and even betrayed it and went on to point out American duplicity and double standards. "We only wanted what was best for everybody," Putinessentially argued, "but you Americans drowned our good intentions in asea of hypocrisy, lies, imperial arrogance and unwillingness to consider anyone'sinterests but your own."And yet despite the legitimacy of such claims, it is unclear whether any of theValdai Club members present — who know the intricacies of Russian politics better than anyone — agreed with Putin's arguments. Russia's ruling class,taking its cue from the president, has completely shifted into a world of itsown, replete with a separate set of ideas, values and principles.

普京表示，西方世界尤其是美国，已经严重触犯背弃俄罗斯，他还指出美国的两面性和双重标准。“我们只想做对大家都好的事情，”普京从根本上道出实质，“但你们美国人带着帝国的傲慢用伪善和谎言扭曲压制我们的善意，不愿承认除了你们别人也会考虑大局利益。”尽管目前还不清楚（普京的）言论是否被瓦尔代俱乐部与会成员认同——清楚俄罗斯政治复杂性的人们——会赞同普京的话。从总统的暗示来看，俄罗斯的统治阶层已经完全成为充满着他自己一整套独立思想、价值观和原则的世界。

And the problem is not whether the Russian or Western world is more"correct," but that the two sides have conclusively formed separate camps, unable to understand and unwilling to even listen to each is the main factor that will shape Russian foreign and domestic policy inthe next few years. In his sharply anti-U.S. speech, Putin defined his policyand principles in a way that finds comparison to remarks he made at a security conference in Munich in 2007 and the definitive speech that former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill delivered in Fulton, Missouri, in 1946 in which he popularized the term "Iron Curtain."But will snarling at the "duplicitous and despicable" West aloneprovide adequate foundation for creating a meaningful social and political life in Russia?However archaic and reactionary Russia's realpolitik might seem to what Putincalls "our Western friends and partners," it might very well become aconsistent pattern of behavior in the international arena, giving rise tonumerous confrontations on many whereas foreign policy is typically a continuation of domestic policy, theopposite is true in Russia, where the so-called Dima Yakovlev law banning American citizens from adopting Russian orphans was born not so much out of Russian lawmakers' love for orphans as it was out of their angry reaction tothe Magnitsky Act, which barred a group of Russian officials from entering the U.S.

问题不是俄罗斯和西方世界谁更“正确”，而是两大阵营之间彼此不能理解，甚至不愿意相互倾听。这也是接下来几年影响俄罗斯外交和国内政策的主要因素。对比一下， 2007年普金在慕尼黑安全会议上的权威发言，和1946年前英国首相丘吉尔在密苏里州富尔顿推广“铁幕”时的发言。不难看出，这种尖锐的反美言论是普金捍卫他的政治理论的方式。对着“卑劣又两面派”的西方咆哮能独自给‘创建一个有社会意义和政治环境的俄罗斯'提供坚实的基础？然而古旧而保守的俄罗斯权力政策看起来很像普金所称呼的“我们的西方朋友和合作伙伴”，它很好的成为了国际舞台行为模式，引发了数量众多的冲突。尽管外交政策是一种典型的国内政策的延续，在俄罗斯却相反，所谓的禁止美国公民收养俄罗斯孤儿的迪马雅科夫列夫法律出台，不是俄罗斯法律制定者对孤儿多么有爱，仅是针对美方通过马格尼茨基法案禁止部分俄官员入境（美国）的愤怒反应。PS：马格尼茨基法案，2012年美国制定的就俄罗斯反腐律师马格尼茨基死亡案件相关的俄方官员的一个黑名单，该名单上人员一律被禁止入境美国。马格尼茨基是毛熊家某基金公司一枚小律师，08年揭露毛熊家一起涉案金额高达2.3亿美元的官僚诈骗案，后被毛熊警方以涉嫌逃税欺诈罪名逮捕，羁押期间遭受毒打，09年因心脏病死亡，毛熊家克里姆林宫发言人公开承认其很可能是殴打致死。

Judging by recent statements from senior Russian officials, tough iment has become the leitmotif of Kremlin propaganda. It has become thelitmus test of patriotism, along with accusations that the West is "aiding and abetting fascists" in that cannot fill the ideological void and create a positive image of Russia's future. A country with aspirations of greatness cannot win the world's respect by constantly denouncing Washington, much less by struggling with somepathetic "junta in Kiev."Moscow leaders might find some meaning in the struggle for the interests ofNovorossia in eastern Ukraine and the even larger Russian world. But in that case, they must first infuse meaning into the social life of Russia itself —the foundation of any larger Russian ers must first care for their own people, ensure their well-being, standard of living, rights and protection under the rule of law and only then turn their sights to Novorossia and the possibility of further expansion. This idea of anexpanded sphere of Russian influence will never work if it is based only on identifyingenemies — "foreign agents," people with dual citizenship and"fifth and sixth columns" of domestic is needed is to formulate a post-communist "Russian Dream" —similar to the American Dream — without letting the country degenerate into unbridled and primitive chauvinism.

从俄罗斯高级官员最近的言论来看，强硬的反美情绪被列为克里姆林宫的宣传主题。随着在乌克兰指控西方是“教唆洗脑的法西斯”舆论，它已成为爱国主义的试金石。这既不能填补思想空白也不能为俄罗斯的未来建立正面形象。一个伟大的国家不能靠指责美国来赢得世界尊重，这比跟某些可悲的“基辅军政府” 骂架还糟。（基辅军政府，有点类似军阀割据不过局面小的多，该群小集团中的某个奇葩声称自己是正义方，而其人民是恐怖分子） 莫斯科的领导者或许会在东乌克兰的Novorossia（国名，乌克兰东南部和南部地区计划将来自己搭伙建个国家，开张时打算用的名字。）或者俄罗斯世界的利益斗争中得出点意义。但在这种情况下他们首先得赋予俄罗斯社会本身一些实质性意义——那是任何一个俄罗斯世界的基础。 领导者应该先照顾好自己治下的人民，确保他们身体健康，生活达标，享有权利和受到保护，然后再把目光放到Novorossia和有可能的进一步开拓上。扩大俄罗斯的影响力永远不会实现，如果我们总是把注意力放在鉴别敌人上——“外国特工”，有双国籍的人，被放到“第五和第六栏”的内部敌人。我们最需要的是制定一个后共产主义的“俄罗斯梦”——就像美国梦——而不是让国家毫无准备的倒退回原始化的沙文主义。

When former Soviet leader Josef Stalin denounced the "Yugoslavfascists" of Yugoslavia's then-leader Josip Broz Tito, and when former Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev criticized U.S. imperialism while addressingnumerous peace initiatives to the "progressive part of mankind" —proposals that were just as devoid of substance as similar initiatives sounding from Moscow today — they were built into a comprehensive ideological the core of that ideology was an image of the future characterized bycommunist happiness, universal equality, brotherhood and love. It served as theframework for a system of societal ethics and models of personal behavior leading to career advancement and current attempt to substitute a coherent image of the future with ahodgepodge of obsolete Soviet ideas only underscores the ideological poverty of the current regime. That jumble of unprincipled, opportunistic journalism,primitive television propaganda and primeval myths about how the Western worldwants to enslave Russia, push it to its knees and steal its minerals, land,water and air is no vision of the future. It is only a horror story borrowed from the dusty past that offers no constructive plan or direction.

前苏联领导人斯大林谴责过时任南斯拉夫领导人的Josip Broz Tito 为“南斯拉夫法西斯”，前苏联领导人勃列日涅夫在美国用“进步的人类”建议和平解决众多倡议时批评美国帝国主义——从今日的莫斯科来看（当年）那种类似的行为毫无意义——他们都建成了一个全面的思想体系。这一共产主义幸福思想的核心应该具有人人平等、友爱长存等长远愿景。作为一个社会道德和引导职业发展与成功的行为规范他服务于整个体系框架。这种用老旧的苏联大杂烩观念代替未来愿景的尝试只能暴露出当前政府的思维匮乏。那群无原则、投机主义的新闻媒体，用低级简陋的方式宣传和杜撰着关于西方世界如何想要奴役俄罗斯，使其屈服好偷走它的矿产，土地，水和空气，那不是未来该有的憧憬。仅仅是个从不能提供建设规划和方向的旧土堆中虚构出来的丑恶故事。