俄罗斯才是美国的头号敌人

This weekend America announced that it was sending more troops to Iraq, Russia allegedly sent more troops into Ukraine and President Barack Obama set off for Beijing.

最近，美国宣布将向伊拉克增派士兵，俄罗斯据称已向乌克兰派出更多军队，而美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)前往北京。

Ask policy makers in Washington which of these different parts of the world should be America’s top priority and the first response is usually a variant of – “We’ve got to be able to chew gum and walk at the same time.” Press on, and the replies get more interesting.

如果你问问华盛顿的政策制定者，在全球这些不同地区中，哪一个应该是美国的首要优先任务，最初的回答通常类似于“我们现在能够一心多用了。”继续问下去，答案就变得更有趣了。

Broadly speaking, the Washington consensus seems to be that, of the two immediate crises, the one in the Middle East is more urgent than the one in Ukraine. One US national security official, whose responsibilities include both Russia and the Middle East, looked incredulous when I asked him, last week, which was the more important: “The Middle East, by far,” he replied.

大体来讲，华盛顿的共识似乎是：在当下这两个危机中，中东危机要比乌克兰危机更为紧迫。当我问一位负责俄罗斯和中东事务的美国国家安全官员，哪一个更重要时，他似乎不信我会问这个问题，答道：“中东，这个紧迫多了。”

The argument for prioritising the Middle East is threefold. First, there is an actual war going on, with the US involved in daily bombing raids – landing “warheads on foreheads”, in the disconcertingly jaunty phrase used in the Pentagon. Second, if national security is defined as protecting civilian populations from harm, the Americans see a much more immediate threat from jihadist terrorism than from Russia. Third, the Americans believe an entire regional order is unravelling in the Middle East and that the reordering could take decades. By contrast, the order in Europe is only fraying at the edges.

将中东列为优先任务的理由有3点。第一，中东确实在爆发真刀真枪的战争，美国每天都会参与轰炸任务，用五角大楼那句洋洋得意、令人不安的话来说，“朝着额头发射弹头”(warheads on foreheads)。第二，如果国家安全的定义是保护平民不受伤害，那么美国人认为来自圣战组织的恐怖主义威胁远比俄罗斯更为紧迫。第三，美国人认为中东的整个地区秩序正在瓦解，恢复秩序可能需要几十年。相比之下，欧洲的秩序只是在边缘出现紊乱。

Some even worry that America’s preoccupation with Russia distracted its attention from Iraq and Syria, at a vital time. One official muses: “I do wonder whether historians will record that, in the spring of 2014, we were too focused on Ukraine, just as [Isis] was grabbing control of huge swaths of territory.”

一些人甚至担心，美国对俄罗斯的关注在关键时刻分散了其对伊拉克和叙利亚的注意力。一位官员若有所思地说道：“我真的很想知道历史学家将如何记录这件事，2014年春，我们的注意力过多地放在了乌克兰身上，而当时，‘伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国’(ISIS)正在抢夺大片地区的控制权。”

The phenomenon of policy makers looking in the wrong direction is certainly not unknown in history. In the month before the outbreak of the first world war, 100 years ago, the British government spent far more time discussing the prospect of civil conflict in Ireland than the threat of war in Europe.

政策制定者的关注方向出现错误的现象肯定并非前所未有。在100年前第一次世界大战爆发前的那一个月，英国政府讨论爱尔兰出现国内冲突可能性的时间，远远多于讨论欧洲战争威胁的时间。

But for those who worry most about Vladimir Putin’s Russia, it is the Middle East that is the dangerous distraction. The “Russia first” crowd is stronger in Warsaw and Berlin than in Washington. It worries that the US has been drawn back into the “war on terror” and the conflicts of the Middle East, just as the dangers in Europe are mounting.

但对于那些最担心弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)领导下的俄罗斯的人而言，是中东危险地分散了政策制定者的注意力。在华沙和柏林，呼吁将俄罗斯问题排在首位的人群的声势要比在华盛顿更大。他们担心，美国已退回到“反恐战争”和中东冲突中去，而此时欧洲的危险正在加剧。

According to this analysis, the US has still not recognised the radicalism of the challenge posed by Russia. The annexation of Crimea and incursions into eastern Ukraine are, it is feared, just the start. At some point, Russia is likely to threaten more of Ukraine, or even the Baltic states. The very fact that America has ruled out military action over Ukraine – which makes the crisis seem less urgent in Washington – has inadvertently raised the stakes. As one senior European diplomat puts it: “Putin knows that he can always escalate to places we won’t go.”

根据这种分析，美国仍没有意识到，俄罗斯构成的挑战具有极端性。人们担心吞并克里米亚和入侵乌克兰东部只是开始。未来某一刻，俄罗斯可能会威胁乌克兰更多地区，甚至波罗的海国家。美国已排除了就乌克兰问题采取军事行动的可能性，这让这场危机在美国显得不那么紧迫，然而正是这一事实不经意间加大了风险。正如欧洲一位高级外交官所言：“普京知道他永远可以将事态升级到我们不愿意触碰的级别。”

The darkest scenarios, being discussed behind closed doors, include Russian escalation up to and including the use of tactical nuclear weapons. If that were to happen it would, of course, be the biggest international security crisis in decades – far more significant and dangerous than another round in the 25 years of fighting in Iraq.

人们私下里讨论的最糟糕的情形，包括俄罗斯将事态升级到涉及使用战术核武器的地步。如果这变成事实，这肯定将是几十年来最为严重的国际安全危机，其重要性和危险性将远远超过另一轮持续25年的伊拉克战争。

Most experts still dismiss the nuclear scenarios as far-fetched. It is more common to worry that Mr Putin may launch an all-out conventional war in Ukraine – or encourage uprisings by Russian-speakers in the Baltic states, which are members of Nato. If Russia then intervened in the Baltic states and Nato did not respond, the Kremlin would have achieved the huge prize of demonstrating that the western military alliance is a paper tiger.

多数专家仍认为这种核战争假设很牵强。更普遍的担忧是，普京可能会在乌克兰发动全面常规战争，或者鼓动波罗的海国家说俄语的人群揭竿而起，这些国家是北约(Nato)成员国。如果俄罗斯接下来在波罗的海国家实施干预，而北约没有做出回应，那么俄罗斯就取得了一项重大胜利——展示了西方军事联盟就是一只纸老虎。

Some hope that the growing pressure on the Russian economy and the rouble might dissuade the Kremlin from escalation. But an economic crisis could also make Russian behaviour more unpredictable and reckless.

一些人期待，对俄罗斯经济以及卢布施加更大压力，可能会说服俄罗斯不去扩大冲突。但一场经济危机还可能会让俄罗斯的行为更不可预测和不计后果。

Amid all this angst, President Obama has set off for a summit in China. For believers in America’s “pivot to Asia” it remains true that – over the longer term – the biggest challenge to US power is still a rising China, rather than a declining Russia or a disintegrating Middle East. They worry that the more the US gets sucked into the crises, the easier it will be for China to achieve primacy in East Asia – the region that is increasingly the core of the global economy.

在所有这些担忧之中，奥巴马总统动身前往中国参加一次峰会。对于那些相信美国“重返亚洲”的人们而言，事实仍然是，较长期来说，美国实力的最大挑战者仍然是一个正在崛起的中国，而非实力日益下滑的俄罗斯或正在分崩离析的中东。他们担心，美国越卷入到危机之中，中国就越容易在东亚获得首要地位，而东亚正日益成为全球经济的核心。

The Obama administration is determined that this will not happen, and is shifting US military resources so that in future, 60 per cent of the American navy will be based in the Pacific.

奥巴马政府决心不让这种结果出现，因此正在转移美国军事资源，这样将来美国60%的海军力量将部署在太平洋地区。

It will be up to historians to decide whether the Obama administration got its strategic priorities right, or whether it charged off in the wrong direction at a crucial moment.

奥巴马政府的战略优先任务是否正确，或者美国是否在关键时刻搞错了方向，这将由历史学家决定。

My own instinct is that Russia is now the most important challenge. The rise of China is hugely significant but, for the moment, it feels like a long-term process – without any immediate risk of conflict with the US.

我自己的想法是，俄罗斯现在是最为重要的挑战。中国的崛起影响非常重大，但目前，这像是一个长期过程，眼下没有任何与美国产生冲突的风险。

Failing states in the Middle East and the risk of terrorism are dangers that, sadly, now feel almost normal.

遗憾的是，中东那些正在衰落的国家以及恐怖主义风险现在变成了近乎常规的危险。

But an angry, nuclear-armed Russia, intent on challenging US power, poses risks that we are only beginning to understand. Peace in Europe may depend on Washington striking exactly the right balance between deterrence and diplomacy.

然而，一个愤怒、核武装、有意挑战美国实力的俄罗斯所构成的风险，我们才刚刚开始意识到。欧洲的和平可能依赖于美国在威慑与外交斡旋之间达成合理的平衡。