苏格兰独立公投 开始展露阴暗面

It was scarcely an accident that Alex Salmond’s Scottish Nationalist party set the 700th anniversary of the battle of Bannockburn as the year for Scotland’s vote on independence. Commemoration of Robert the Bruce’s famous victory over the English would surely rekindle the embers of patriotism ahead of September’s vote on separation.

亚历克斯•萨尔蒙德(Alex Salmond)领导的苏格兰民族党(SNP)，选在“班诺克本之战”(battle of Bannockburn)七百周年举行苏格兰独立公投，这不会是个巧合。在9月的独立公投前夕纪念1314年罗伯特一世(Robert the Bruce)对英格兰那场著名的胜利，肯定会使爱国主义的余烬复燃。

So the first minister will have been disappointed by this week’s news from sponsors of the planned two-day celebration of the defeat of Edward II’s English army on June 24 1314. So slow has been the take-up that the organisers have had to cut ticket prices. Perhaps it is an omen. The momentum of the nationalist campaign seems to have stalled.

6月24日是苏格兰战胜爱德华二世(Edward II)的英格兰军队七百周年纪念日，届时将举行为期两天的纪念活动。而不久前从活动主办者那里传来的消息，肯定会让苏格兰首席大臣萨尔蒙德感到失望：因为门票卖得极慢，主办者不得不降低了门票价格。这或许是个兆头。苏格兰民族主义运动似乎失去了动力。

Mr Salmond could still win on September 18, but there are signs – some of them ugly – that SNP confidence is waning.

萨尔蒙德仍有可能在9月18日的公投中取胜，但有迹象（其中一些还相当刺眼）显示，苏格兰民族党正在丧失信心。

The Better Together camp, which has sounded negative and defensive in making the case for the 307-year union at the heart of the UK, has a spring in its step. By the calculation of its leaders the balance of opinion has settled at about 60 per cent for the union versus 40 per cent or so for separation. Nationalist nerves are fraying. Edinburgh’s salons hum with gossip about a falling-out between the formidable Mr Salmond and his equally formidable deputy, Nicola Sturgeon. Voters meanwhile are catching more than a glimpse of the dark side of nationalism.

“在一起更好”阵营的声势则日渐壮大。该阵营反对苏格兰独立，主张维护已有307年历史的英格兰与苏格兰联盟。据该阵营的领袖估计，现在支持和反对独立的人数已稳定为4比6左右。民族主义者的神经在经受折磨。在爱丁堡，流言盛嚣尘上，称萨尔蒙德跟他的副手尼古拉•斯特金(Nicola Sturgeon)闹翻了。萨尔蒙德向来强势，斯特金也同样不好惹。与此同时，民族主义的阴暗面也越来越多地暴露在选民面前。

Mr Salmond has built his argument for independence around a cuddly, inclusive pitch that eschews the angry politics of anti-English grievance. Scotland would break free but it would remain best of friends with its southern neighbour. Separation could even draw the two nations closer together. An independent Scotland would make its own way in the world but it would surely keep the Queen as head of state and the pound as its currency.

萨尔蒙德倡导独立的论调一直是温情的、包容的，回避了愤怒的反英格兰式“悲情政治”（politics of grievance，指煽动和利用民众的委屈感为自己争取票数——译者注）。苏格兰会独立，但仍将做英格兰最好的朋友。独立甚至会让两个民族更加亲近。独立的苏格兰将以自己的方式存在于世，但肯定仍将以英国女王为国家元首，以英镑为法定货币。

The tensions in this we-can-have-it-all-ways approach have always been apparent. So, too, has been the absence of substantive answers to the many hard questions about the economic future of an independent Scotland. But as long as SNP support was rising, Mr Salmond’s smiling reassurance seemed enough to carry the day. Best-friends nationalism has emotional pull. The unionist concentration on the costs of separation has sounded demeaning of Scotland and patronising of its people – the more so when it comes from English Conservatives.

这种“鱼和熊掌可以兼得”式论调，一直存在明显的矛盾之处。同样明显的是，关于英格兰独立后经济前景的许多尖锐问题还没有真正得到解答。但只要苏格兰民族党的支持率在上升，萨尔蒙德的微笑和保证似乎就足以让他稳操胜券。“好朋友”民族主义具有情感吸引力。反对独立者强调独立的代价，在苏格兰人看来有一种轻蔑、以恩主自居的意味，从英格兰保守党人口中说出来时尤其如此。

The nationalist mask, though, is slipping. The Yes campaign now carries an air of menace. Mr Salmond, as Scotland’s first minister, holds the public purse strings. Potential opponents have been left in no doubt about that fact. Academics and artists who value the bonds with the rest of the UK say they worry about losing funding if they voice pro-union views. Business leaders speak of barely disguised hints about how they should best safeguard their commercial interests.

不过，民族主义的面纱正在滑落。主张独立一派的造势活动眼下已带有威胁的意味。苏格兰首席大臣萨尔蒙德掌握着公共财政大权。在这一点上，有心反对独立者得到了毫不含糊的提示。珍视苏格兰与英国其他地区纽带的学者和艺术家说，他们担心，如果发表反对独立的观点，他们会丧失财政资助。商业领袖则几乎毫不掩饰地谈论，他们怎么做才最有利于保护他们的商业利益。

This week the celebrated author, JK Rowling, braved online vilification by the so-called “cyber nats” who inject a crudely abusive and bullying tone into the separatist campaign. Ms Rowling, a long-time resident of Edinburgh, gave £1m of her royalties to Better Together. She also wrote a sober and thoughtful open letter explaining why Scotland and the Scots prosper in a Britain that has always been much more than the sum of its parts.

著名作家J•K•罗琳(JK Rowling)不久前勇敢地反击了“网络民族主义者”的中伤。这些“网络民族主义者”鼓吹独立的方式显得非常霸道，带有一种粗俗的攻击性。罗琳长期居住在爱丁堡，向“在一起更好”运动捐出了100万英镑版税。她还撰写了一封公开信，冷静而深入地解释了为何苏格兰留在英国更好，以及英国作为一个整体的好处、为何始终远大于各部分带来的好处之和。

The Braveheart nationalists, though, claim a monopoly on patriotism: unless you are for independence you might have wielded the axe that severed the neck of William Wallace. The pivotal role of patriotic Scots in building Britain and the abiding influence of the diaspora count for nothing. Ms Rowling offered a timely rebuke to those who “demonise anyone who is not blindly and unquestionably pro-independence”. This fringe reminded her of Lord Voldemort’s Death Eaters in the Harry Potter saga. Not everyone, though, feels secure enough to speak out.

然而，《勇敢的心》(Braveheart)式民族主义者霸占了爱国主义这个词。除非你支持独立，否则你就无异于当年杀死威廉•华莱士(William Wallace)的刽子手。苏格兰爱国主义者在英国建国过程中发挥的关键作用，以及旅居海外者的持久影响，在他们看来什么都不是。对那种“只要有人不是盲目和不加质疑地支持独立，就将其妖魔化”的做法，罗琳进行了及时的驳斥。这种浅薄的做法，让她想到《哈利•波特》小说中伏地魔大人(Lord Voldemort)的食死徒(Death Eater)。不过，不是每个人都敢于公开反对独立。

Mr Salmond stands aloof from personal attacks but has done little to counter them. Only the other day one of his senior advisers orchestrated an attempt to discredit the mother of a disabled child who had dared campaign against separation. Those who meet the first minister say a nod here and a raised eyebrow here perfectly convey an implicit warning.

萨尔蒙德没有参与人身攻击，但也没有做什么来阻止人身攻击。不久前，他的一名高级顾问还试图抹黑一位残疾儿童的母亲，就因为这位母亲居然胆敢发起反对独立的运动。曾与萨尔蒙德会面的人说，他在不同场合的点头和扬眉，明显就是无声的警告。

The referendum campaign has fewer than 100 days to run. The spectacle will not be edifying. Both sides have identified low-paid and no-pay working class voters as the important swing voters. SNP leaders talk of a nationalist drive to rouse the sans-culottes who might be persuaded that anything is better than rule by English Tories. Mr Salmond, a consummate politician, will play to the mood of anti-politics that carried the UK Independence party to victory in the European elections. Better Together will plug away at the dangers to living standards, pensions and the rest from a rupture with England.

公投距今只有不到三个月了。届时场面不会好看。双方都将低薪和无薪阶层选民视为重要的摇摆选民。苏格兰民族党领导人谈论着要用民族主义运动唤醒“长裤汉”（sans-culotte，又称“无套裤汉”，法国大革命时期对广大革命群众流行的称呼——译者注），他们觉得有望说服这些人相信，任何情况都不会比被英格兰保守党统治更糟。萨尔蒙德是个完美的政客，他会利用民众的反政治情绪。英国独立党(UK Independence party)在欧洲议会选举中取胜，靠的就是这股情绪。“在一起更好”运动则将竭力宣扬与英格兰闹翻可能带来的种种风险：生活水准降低、养老金可能失去保障，等等。

Those of us who think there is a more elevated case to be made for ties of family, values, culture and mutual interest embedded in the union will probably be disappointed. That is a pity. Even with a No vote in the referendum, if the union is to endure there will be much to be done after September to reshape and revitalise the relationship between England and Scotland.

我们中有人认为，苏格兰有更崇高的理由留在英国，那就是苏格兰与英格兰在家庭、价值观和文化方面的纽带，以及联盟带给双方的共同利益。可惜的是，持这种看法的人可能会失望了。即便9月公投结果是反对独立，之后在重塑、重振英格兰与苏格兰关系方面，我们也将有很多工作要做，否则联盟将无法长久维系。

Almost as depressing as the politics of grievance now surfacing in Scotland is the shrug of indifference the campaign has stirred in the rest of the UK. If Mr Salmond does win the day, such nonchalance will seem more than irresponsible. The sundering of the union would be a political earthquake. And England has every bit as much to lose, and more, as Scotland.

几乎与悲情政治在苏格兰抬头同样令人沮丧的是，英国其余地方对苏格兰独立公投显得无动于衷。如果那天萨尔蒙德真的赢了，那么这种冷漠态度就不只是显得不负责任了。如果苏格兰与英格兰的联盟散伙，那将是一场政治地震。而英格兰的损失将丝毫不比苏格兰少，只会更多。