苏格兰走向第二次独立公投

As the UK slashes and stumbles through the thickets towards Brexit, a familiar shadow has fallen. Scotland, its prickly, unreconciled northern nation, is moving towards another independence referendum four years after the first.

就在英国披荆斩棘、跌跌撞撞地向着退欧前进之际，一个熟悉的阴影已经笼罩下来。时隔4年，苏格兰——联合王国中桀骜不驯的北方王国——正走向第二次独立公投。

The motive force is June’s vote to quit the EU: 53 per cent in England backed leaving yet 62 per cent of Scots opted to remain. The sense that an unpleasant spasm of English nationalism is forcing Scotland out of the EU has provided the separatist government with an opportunity to demand a re-run of the 2014 referendum.

原动力是6月的英国退欧公投：53%的英格兰人支持退欧，而62%的苏格兰人选择留欧。英格兰令人讨厌的民族主义发作将迫使苏格兰退出欧盟，这种感觉为独立派政府提供了要求举行第二次独立公投的机会。

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has said that late 2018 would be the obvious time to hold a second vote. She is expected to set out further details at the Scottish National party’s conference this week.

苏格兰首席大臣尼古拉?斯特金(Nicola Sturgeon)表示，2018年末将是举行第二次公投显而易见的时间（编者注：尼古拉?斯特金周一正式要求举行第二次苏格兰独立公投）。预计她将在本周苏格兰民族党(Scottish National party)大会上详述进一步的细节。

Three years ago, the result was closer than many expected, with the pro-UK side winning 55 per cent to 45 per cent. Support for separation rose during that campaign. The nationalists have since swept their opponents aside, taking all but three of Scotland’s Westminster Seats and securing a third successive governing term at the devolved administration in Edinburgh. The psephological leap the separatists have to make in a second vote is much less daunting.

3年前那场公投的结果比很多人预想的更悬：55%的人支持留在英国，45%的人反对，前者以微弱差距赢得了公投。在公投前的造势过程中，独立运动得到了更多支持。自那之后，苏格兰民族党把对手推上冷板凳，苏格兰在英国下议院的席位除3个以外其他全部由苏格兰民族党占据，同时该党取得执掌苏格兰政府的连续第三个任期。独立派要在第二次公投中消除的支持率差距，远没那么悬殊了。

Unionists have a further problem: who has the credibility and unifying power to front another “Better Together” campaign? The leaders of the pro-UK movement back in 2014, eminent Westminster Scots such as Alistair Darling, former chancellor, are retired from frontline politics, retain little influence and it feels as if they belong to another age.

统一派还面临一个问题：谁拥有足够的威信和凝聚力来领导又一场“在一起更好”(Better Together)运动？在2014年领导留英运动的那些在英国国会任职的杰出苏格兰人，如英国前财政大臣阿利斯泰尔?达林(Alistair Darling)，现在都已退出政治前线，影响力所剩无几，给人感觉仿佛属于另一个时代。

The Labour party, which dominated Scottish politics for generations, is in a state of collapse. It has been replaced by the SNP as the left-of-centre option for many voters, and at the last devolved election slipped into third place behind the much-ridiculed Scottish Conservatives. Jeremy Corbyn, the UK Labour leader, is as unpopular north of the border as is he is everywhere else, and would hardly add stardust to the case for the union.

曾在数代人时间里主导苏格兰政治的工党(Labour party)，如今正处于分崩离析的状态。苏格兰民族党已经取代工党成为了很多中左翼选民的选择。在上一次苏格兰议会选举中，工党滑至第三位，位于饱受嘲笑的苏格兰保守党(Conservative)之后。英国工党领袖杰里米?科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)在苏格兰像在其他任何地方一样不受欢迎，对统一派说服选民几乎起不到丝毫帮助。

Nor do the Tories offer much hope. In personality and behaviour, Prime Minister Theresa May is seen, perhaps like her predecessor Margaret Thatcher, as an unsympathetic type by many Scots. Like Mr Corbyn, she could damage more than bolster the campaign. Ruth Davidson, the leader of Scotland’s Conservatives, is popular and energetic but her party does not yet have heft.

保守党也没有带来多大希望。在很多苏格兰人看来，特里萨?梅(Theresa May)的性格和举止显示，她或许像前一位女首相玛格丽特?撒切尔(Margaret Thatcher)一样，是不近人情的那类人。像科尔宾一样，她对统一运动的破坏可能大于帮助。苏格兰保守党领袖露丝?戴维森(Ruth Davidson)有人气也有活力，但她的政党目前还没有分量。

Given Labour seems determined not to pair up with the Tories as it did during the previous referendum campaign — an association it blames for its electoral decline since — there could be a number of competing unionist campaigns battling for prominence, slinging mud and undermining the greater cause.

考虑到工党似乎决心不像上一次公投运动那样与保守党结盟（工党认为正是那次联盟导致其之后在选举中节节败退），可能会有很多相互竞争的统一派造势活动争夺地位、互相诋毁、破坏整个统一事业。

If the separatists are to be defeated again, it is likely to be down to the facts. The oil price, central to nationalist boasts about the prospective wealth of an independent Scotland, has plummeted. In 2014, the Scottish government predicted North Sea revenues of between ￡6.8bn and ￡7.5bn in 2016/17. In reality, UK oil and gas generated receipts of effectively zero and are forecast to remain around that level.

如果独立派会再一次被打败，原因很可能在于现实情况。石油是苏格兰民族主义者所鼓吹的英格兰独立后财富前景的核心，而目前油价暴跌。2014年，苏格兰政府预计，2016/17年度北海收入在68亿英镑至75亿英镑之间。事实上，英国石油天然气创造的财政收入实际上为零，预计未来仍将大致维持这一水平。

Further, the Scottish government’s figures show the public spending deficit has reached almost ￡15bn: 9.5 per cent of gross domestic product, compared with 4 per cent for the UK. The SNP has failed to produce a credible plan for closing this gap. Nor it is yet clear what currency an independent Scotland would adopt, or whether it would be able to remain in the EU or easily reapply for membership.

另外，苏格兰政府的数据表明，公共支出赤字达到了近150亿英镑，相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的9.5%，相比之下英国整体的这一比例为4%。苏格兰民族党没能拿出缩小这一差距的可信计划。同样尚不清楚的是，苏格兰独立后要采用哪种货币，独立后的苏格兰是否可以留在欧盟内或轻松重新申请加入欧盟。

In these unpredictable times, no one can be sure of the result if Scots go to the polls again. Despite the weight of economic evidence against her, the “take back control” message that delivered Brexit may work just as well for Ms Sturgeon. The UK may yet not see out the decade.

在这种变化莫测的时候，如果苏格兰再次举行公投，没人能断定结果。尽管不利于斯特金的经济证据是实实在在的，但实现了退欧的“拿回控制权”(Take Back Control)口号可能同样能够帮助斯特金得偿所愿。联合王国可能撑不过这个十年了。

The writer is a political commentator

本文作者为政治评论员