解密原朝鲜公共分配制度催生出的地下经济

The breakdown of North Korea's public distribution system during the famine years of the mid-1990s fostered the emergence of an underground market economy as the populace were forced to find ways to try and survive.

朝鲜公共分配制度在上世纪90年代中期大饥荒年间瓦解，劳苦平民被迫寻找谋生之道，于是催生了地下市场经济。

The growth of that economy in subsequent years has been the subject of great interest to observers of the country, particularly the question of whether it might eventually lead to the collapse of the political power structure headed by the ruling Kim family.

随后数年这个地下经济的发展，尤其它是否会最终导致金家王朝领导的政治权力结构倾覆，一直是关注朝鲜的人士倍感兴趣的研究对象。

A new report helps to shed some light on how the underground economy has developed in one particularly worrying but potentially transformative way.

新发布的一项报告有助于外界了解朝鲜地下经济是如何以一种特别令人担忧、但或许能带来变革的方式不断发展的。

'Illicit: North Korea's Evolving Operations to Earn Hard Currency,' authored by Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, details how North Korea's illicit economic activities have fostered the emergence of a 'criminal' market economy.

布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)东亚政策研究中心(Center for East Asia Policy Studies)客座高级研究员格雷滕斯(Sheena Chestnut Greitens)撰写了名为《朝鲜赚取硬通货非法运作历程》(Illicit: North Korea's Evolving Operations to Earn Hard Currency)的报告，细述了朝鲜非法经济活动如何培育了一个“罪恶”的市场经济。

The report, largely based on interviews with North Korean defectors, tracks three stages of development of illicit economic activities in North Korea. It starts from the 1970s, when North Korean officials trafficked a range of products such as drugs and counterfeit cigarettes, manufactured by others, at locations where North Korea had diplomatic and trade ties.

报告主要基于对脱北者的访谈，并记录了朝鲜违法经济活动的三个发展阶段。第一阶段始自上世纪70年代，当时朝鲜官员在与该国建交和有贸易往来的地区倒卖毒品和假烟等各类别国生产的产品。

In the second phase from the mid-1990s, North Korea concentrated on the production of illicit goods including counterfeit currency and outsourced distribution to criminal syndicates. Since 2005, the regime has lost its monopoly over some illicit activities such as drug production and sales as a criminal market economy has sprung up, the report says.

上世纪90年代中期朝鲜非法经济活动进入第二阶段，专注于假币等非法产品的制造，并将分配环节“外包”给犯罪组织。报告称，随着非法市场经济的迅速发展，2005年起朝鲜政权已失去了对毒品生产和销售等一些非法活动的垄断地位。

The findings provide 'evidence that a market economy is developing in North Korea, in this case a criminal one that is feeding off the suffering and deprivation of the population,' said Andrew Natsios, co-chair for the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, which released the report.

报告由美国朝鲜人权委员会(Committee for Human Rights in North Korea)发布。该委员会联席主席纳齐奥斯(Andrew Natsios)称，报告提供了表明朝鲜市场经济正在发展的证据，但朝鲜的市场经济是罪恶的，因为它依靠的是对百姓的剥削和压迫。

'No longer limited to elites, the drug trade and other illicit activities now encompass a broader swath of North Korean society than before,' the report says. 'This means that a wider array of North Koreans, elite and ordinary, have opportunities for economic activity that is not dependent on the state and benefit economically from illicit trade.'

报告称，如今毒品交易等非法活动不再仅限于朝鲜官员，更多社会阶层都参与了进来。报告说，这意味著有更多朝鲜人（包括精英和普通人）有机会参与到不依赖政府的经济活动中，且有机会从非法交易中受益。

While the report notes one of the impacts of the growth of the drug trade in particular is increased threats to the overall health status of North Koreans, one upbeat way to look at the findings is that an expansion of the private sector increases destabilizing risks for the regime. North Korea has previously tried to limit market activity but with little success.

报告指出，毒品交易增长带来的影响之一是使朝鲜国民整体健康状况的风险加大，但从好的方面看，私营部门的扩张增加了朝鲜政权的不稳定因素。朝鲜曾试图限制市场活动，但收效甚微。

It remains unclear whether growth in markets--licit and illicit--will ultimately unseat the dictatorship, but some analysts and defectors believe the growth of private economic activity is the best hope for eventual change.

朝鲜合法及非法市场的发展最终是否会动摇该国独裁统治仍不得而知，但一些分析人士及脱北者认为，私营经济活动的发展是蕴育最终变革的最大希望。