日本不排除先发制人打击朝鲜导弹基地

North Korean missiles now pose a “real threat”, Japan’s government said on Thursday as it stepped up its search for countermeasures, including potentially acquiring the capability for a first strike against Pyongyang’s missile bases.

日本政府周四表示，朝鲜导弹现在构成“真切威胁”。日本正加大力度寻找反制措施，包括潜在获得先发制人打击朝鲜导弹基地的能力。

Analysis of the four missiles North Korea launched on Monday has convinced Tokyo that a nuclear strike against one of its cities or a US military base is now a realistic possibility and that the country needs to strengthen its defences urgently.

对朝鲜本周一发射4枚导弹的分析让日本政府确信，朝鲜对日本某个城市或美军基地发起核打击现在成了一个现实可能性，日本迫切需要加强防御能力。

The moves highlight how North Korea is destabilising East Asia. Earlier this week China warned that Pyongyang was on a collision course with the Trump administration and retaliated against South Korean business over Seoul’s installation of US defence systems.

这些事态突显朝鲜正如何让东亚变得不稳定。本周早些时候，中国警告称，平壤方面走上了与特朗普政府发生冲突的道路，中国还因韩国部署美国反导系统而对韩国企业展开报复。

Missile experts at the Middlebury Institute in California have suggested the North Koreans were simulating a nuclear attack on the US Marine Corps air base at Iwakuni. The facility is 50km from Hiroshima, site of the world’s first atomic bombing in the second world war.

加州蒙特雷国际学院(Middlebury Institute)的导弹专家们提出，朝方在模拟对位于岩国市(Iwakuni)的美国海军陆战队航空基地发起核打击。该基地距离广岛50公里——广岛在二战中遭受原子弹轰炸，是世界上首个遭受核打击的地方。

Answering questions in parliament, Tomomi Inada, defence minister, refused to rule out acquiring the capacity for a pre-emptive strike. “I do not rule out any method and we will consider various options, consistent of course with international law and the constitution of our country,” she said.

日本防卫大臣稻田朋美(Tomomi Inada)在国会回答问题时，拒绝排除获得先发制人打击能力的可能性。她说：“我不排除采取任何手段的可能性，我们将考虑多个选项，当然它们将符合国际法和我国宪法。”

Hideaki Kaneda, a retired vice-admiral now at the Okazaki Institute in Tokyo, said pre-emptive strikes against an imminent missile launch were permitted by international law and it was a “reasonable direction” for Japan to take.

目前在冈崎研究所(Okazaki Institute)任职的退役海军中将金田秀昭(Hideaki Kaneda)表示，对即将发射的导弹进行先发制人的打击是国际法允许的，这是日本可以选择的“合理方向”。

Some politicians in Japan’s ruling LDP party have been pushing to acquire weapons capable of making a first strike for years. “But it’s notable that there hasn’t been such a strong public backlash against the idea this time,” Mr Kaneda said.

日本执政党自民党(LDP)的一些政治人士多年来一直推动日本获得发动先发制人打击所需的武器。金田秀昭表示：“但值得注意的是，这次公众没有对这个构想作出特别强烈的反弹。”

If Japan chooses to acquire such weapons, it has several options: Tokyo could buy Tomahawk cruise missiles, a missile-equipped drone or ground-to-air munitions for its manned F-35 aircraft.

如果日本选择获得此类武器，它有多个选项：日本政府可以购买“战斧”巡航导弹、配备导弹的无人机，或者为其有人驾驶的F-35战机配备对地打击武器。

Japan is also actively upgrading its existing anti-ballistic missile defences and considering whether to acquire the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad) system that has caused the controversy between Beijing and Seoul.

日本还正在积极升级现有的反弹道导弹防御系统，并考虑是否部署“美国末段高空区域防御系统”(THAAD,中文简称：萨德)。正是萨德系统导致中国与韩国发生了争执。

At present, Japan relies on Aegis destroyers at sea to intercept ballistic missiles mid-flight, and Patriot missiles on land to intercept them in the final moments of an attack. It is in the process of upgrading both.

就目前而言，日本依赖宙斯盾驱逐舰上的海基反导系统来拦截飞行中的弹道导弹，依赖陆上的“爱国者”导弹拦截已进入攻击末段的弹道导弹。日本正在升级这两套武器系统。

“What we have to consider is a saturated attack,” said Mr Kaneda. North Korea could attempt to overwhelm Japan’s defences by launching numerous missiles at the same target. “If they fall in a concentrated area then it’s harder to defend against,” he said.

金田秀昭表示：“我们不得不考虑饱和攻击的可能性。”朝鲜可能试图通过针对同一目标发射大量导弹来压倒日本的防御。他说：“如果它们落入人口密集区，那就更难防御。”

Thaad would add a third layer to Japan’s defences, allowing it to intercept incoming missiles at greater range than the Patriot system. However, as with South Korea, the potential for the system’s radars to gather information on their defences could upset China and Russia.

萨德将为日本的防御体系提供第三层防护，让它在比“爱国者”系统更远的距离范围拦截导弹。然而，和韩国一样，萨德系统的雷达有可能收集到中国和俄罗斯的国防情报，引发这两个国家不快。

Japan also perceives a threat from Chinese medium-range ballistic missiles, which could be used to attack its ships and airbases in the event of a conflict around the disputed Senkaku or Diaoyu islands.

日本还认为中国的中程弹道导弹构成威胁。一旦中日围绕有争议的尖阁诸岛(Senkaku)——中国称为钓鱼岛及其附属岛屿——发生冲突，中国的中程弹道导弹可能被用于攻击日方的军舰和空军基地。

Recent satellite imagery suggests China has carried out drills for such attacks, adding impetus to Japan’s quest for better anti-ballistic missile defences.

最近的卫星影像显示，中国进行了此类攻击的演练，这进一步刺激日本物色更好的反弹道导弹防御系统。