亚洲掀起军备竞赛潮 日本开始调整自己的国防姿态

Everyone knows about China’s arms build-up. Beijing’s defence budget has risen eightfold in 20 years. In that time it has become comfortably the world’s second-biggest spender on the military. In 2012, the country accounted for nearly 10 per cent of global expenditure, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which monitors defence spending. That was more than Russia and the UK combined, although only a quarter of what the supposedly cash-strapped US laid out on its armed forces, according to official figures.

人人都知道中国在扩充军备。中国国防预算在20年间增加了7倍，轻松跃居全球军费支出第二高的国家。观察国防支出的斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所(Stockholm International Peace Research Institute)表示，2012年，中国占据全球国防支出的近10%。从官方数字来看，尽管中国的军费仅为理论上资金紧张的美国的四分之一，但已经超过俄罗斯和英国两国军费的总和。

Less understood, however, is the effect China’s military build-up is having on Asia as a whole. In 2012, for the first year in modern times, Asian states spent more on defence than European ones. From India to South Korea and from Vietnam to Malaysia, governments in the region are ramping up defence spending. Even pacifist Japan, which for years has been cutting its defence outlays, has recently started to reverse the trend as it reorients its defence posture towards what it perceives as a growing Chinese threat.

但人们不甚了解的是，中国扩充军备对整个亚洲有何影响。2012年，亚洲国家国防支出在现代历史上首次超过欧洲国家。从印度到韩国，从越南到马来西亚，亚洲各国政府均在增加国防支出。即便是奉行和平主义、多年来一直削减国防开支的日本，近期也开始扭转这种趋势——面对来自中国在其看来与日俱增的威胁，日本开始调整自己的国防姿态。

To some extent the build-up in Asia, at a time when the US and Europe are paring military expenditure, is a “natural” shift to a fast-growing region. As economies grow, they are bound to modernise their defence capabilities. Likewise, as China becomes more dependent on imports of raw materials, whether of iron ore from Brazil or oil from Sudan, it is less keen to outsource control of vital sea lanes to the US.

作为一个增长迅速的地区，亚洲在欧美削减军事支出时开始扩充军备，在某种程度上是一种“自然而然”的变化。随着经济体增长，它们必然会更新国防装备。类似地，因为中国眼下更加依赖原材料进口——不论是巴西的铁矿石、还是苏丹的石油，中国将关键海上通道的控制权“外包”给美国的意愿也降低了。

Yet the arms build-up in Asia has another, more worrying, dimension. This is what Desmond Ball, professor of strategic studies at Australian National University, calls “action-reaction dynamics”. To put it bluntly, there is an old-fashioned arms race going on. Robert Kaplan, an academic and author of Asia’s Cauldron, a new book about the South China Sea, calls it “one of the most under-reported stories in the elite media in decades”.

但亚洲扩充军备有另一重更让人担忧的意味。澳大利亚国立大学(Australian National University)战略学教授德斯蒙德•鲍尔(Desmond Ball)称其为“作用-反作用动力学”(action-reaction dynamics)。简单说，亚洲正在上演旧式的军备竞赛。作家兼学者罗伯特•卡普兰(Robert Kaplan)将这一现象称为“精英媒体几十年来报道最不充分的题材之一”。卡普兰刚刚出版了一本关于南中国海局势的新著，名为《亚洲锅炉》(Asia’s Cauldron)。

There are many factors driving this arms race. Most important is the growing strength of China, which is leading countries such as India, Vietnam and the Philippines to think harder about defence. That is exacerbated by concern – Washington’s “pivot” or “rebalance” to Asia notwithstanding – that the days of unchallenged Pax Americana are grinding to a close. Other rumbling diplomatic tensions, notably between India and Pakistan and between South and North Korea, are adding to the impetus.

这轮军备竞赛背后有诸多驱动因素。最重要的是中国实力的增长，这促使印度、越南和菲律宾等国更认真地思考国防事务。更糟的是，虽然美国政府采取了“重返”亚洲（或称“再平衡”）战略，但人们担忧“美国治下的和平”(Pax Americana)不受挑战的时代正在落幕。部分国家之间的紧张局势——尤其是印度与巴基斯坦、朝鲜与韩国之间的对峙——也加剧了军备竞赛。

One of the most noticeable ramp-ups has happened in India, which last year became the biggest foreign buyer of US arms. In 2010, it overtook China as the largest arms importer, a reflection of Beijing’s successful efforts to indigenise supply of its defence needs. India’s purchases from the US are intended to close the technology gap. France’s Dassault is also waiting for New Delhi to finalise a long-dragged-out deal to buy Rafale fighter jets up to the value of $20bn. New Delhi, which in 2011 devoted a whopping $44bn to defence – only marginally less than it spent on education – has 45 warships and submarines under construction, among the world’s largest naval building programmes.

印度是扩充军备最为明显的国家之一，它在去年成为美国武器的头号外国买家。2010年，印度超过中国成为全球最大的武器进口国，反映出中国军备供应本土化的努力成效不错。印度向美国购买军备，旨在缩小技术差距。法国达索公司(Dassault)也在等待印度政府最终敲定拖延已久的交易，根据交易印度将购买价值高达200亿美元的阵风(Rafale)战机。印度2011年国防预算达到惊人的440亿美元，仅略微低于教育支出。该国目前在建的战舰和潜水艇有45艘，这是世界上规模最大的海军建设计划之一。

India is by no means alone. Malaysia’s defence spending has more than doubled since 2000. Singapore, pursuing what is affectionately known as the “poison shrimp” strategy, is among the world’s top 10 arms importers. The smallest nation in southeast Asia, it has the biggest air force.

印度绝不是个例。马来西亚国防支出2000年以来翻了一番多。奉行被人们亲切称为“毒虾”战略的新加坡，是全球前十大武器进口国之一。作为东南亚最小的国家，新加坡却拥有该地区最强大的空军。

Across Asia, purchases of submarines, the “new bling” in the words of Bernard Loo Fook Weng, a Singaporean defence expert, are multiplying. India, South Korea and Vietnam, the latter concerned about what it sees as Chinese encroachment in the South China Sea, plan to buy six apiece by the end of this decade. Australia, in the midst of its most important defence modernisation since the second world war, wants 20 more within the next two decades. Altogether, Asian nations are expected to buy 110 submarines in the next 15 years.

新加坡防务专家Bernard Loo Fook Weng将潜艇称为“新时髦品”。亚洲各国均在增加潜艇购买。印度、韩国和担心中国“入侵”南中国海的越南，计划在2020年之前各买6艘潜艇。澳大利亚正在进行二战以来最重大的一场国防设备升级，它计划在未来20年新增20艘潜艇。亚洲各国未来15年预计将总共购买110艘潜艇。

South Korea, too, has ramped up its defence capabilities and is soon expected to become a top 10 global arms exporter. Even Japan, which has had a self-imposed ban on weapons exports since the war, is about to relax restrictions. That is partly so that it can participate in multinational weapons developments programmes, such as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter developed by the US with eight other nations.

韩国也在增强国防实力，并有望在不久后跻身全球前十大武器出口国。就连二战后一直禁止武器出口的日本，也准备放松限制。日本这样做的部分原因在于，这样一来它便能参与跨国武器开发计划，例如美国与其他8个国家联合开发的F-35联合攻击战斗机。

There are two obvious concerns about a burgeoning arms race that is only likely to gather pace in coming years. One is that, especially in poorer countries such as India, Vietnam and China, where there are still hundreds of millions of poor people, public funds are being lavished on prestige military purchases with no social value. The other concern is just the opposite. When it comes to arms, the only thing worse than spending on useless equipment is spending on weapons that actually prove useful.

亚洲迅速兴起的军备竞赛在未来数年只有可能加速，这带来了两点明显的担忧。第一，公共资金被挥霍在购买不产生社会价值的威慑性军备上，这一点对仍然有数亿贫困人口的印度、越南和中国等不富裕国家而言尤其突出。另一点担忧则正好相反。就军备而言，唯一比花钱购买不会投入使用的装备更糟糕的事情，就是事实证明，花钱买来的这些武器是有用的。

Almost every Asian nation is building up its capacity in the air and on the sea. The people of the region must hope that it is a complete waste of money.

几乎所有的亚洲国家都在扩充空军和海军实力。亚洲地区的民众只能寄希望于这纯粹只是浪费钱。