奥巴马外交努力遭遇普京打太极

U.S. officials negotiating with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov over the future of Ukraine were surprised last week after the experienced diplomat excused himself to phone President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

上周俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫(Sergei Lavrov)在伦敦就乌克兰问题与美国官员进行磋商，期间这位经验丰富的外交官请求暂时离席，与远在莫斯科的总统普京(Vladimir Putin)通电话，之后的情况令在场的美国官员始料未及。

His making such a call wasn't unusual: Mr. Lavrov often sought instructions from the Kremlin leader. The Americans were stunned, however, when Mr. Lavrov reported that Mr. Putin had refused to take his call.

拉夫罗夫打电话本身并不奇怪，因为他常常请示普京意见。但让美方官员吃惊的是，拉夫罗夫说普京拒绝接他的电话。

Coming during the final U.S. attempts to preserve the modern borders of Europe, the episode with Mr. Lavrov here last week underscored the Obama administration's inability to penetrate the Kremlin and its struggles to comprehend Mr. Putin's calculations five years after President Barack Obama decided to reset Washington's ties with Moscow.

在美国为保护现代欧洲版图做最后努力之际，发生在拉夫罗夫身上的这则小插曲表明，奥巴马(Obama)政府无法洞悉克里姆林宫的真实想法，在奥巴马决定重新定位美俄关系五年以后，华盛顿依然对普京捉摸不透。

Russia's rapid move this week to absorb Crimea came despite breakneck U.S. diplomatic efforts, showing the limits of that approach with Moscow and marking a renewed chill with an expansionist-minded partner still seen as vital to core American interests around the world.

尽管美国在短时间内做了大量外交努力，但俄罗斯本周以雷霆之势迅速吞并克里米亚，这暴露出了美国对俄策略的局限性，也标志着两国关系再度陷入冰点。一心谋求扩张的俄罗斯仍然被视为影响美国在全球核心利益的关键因素。

The Obama administration is now left crafting a more confrontational policy toward Mr. Putin, but it remains unclear how far it will go. The inner workings of the Obama administration's diplomatic push, including Mr. Lavrov's phone call, were described by several senior U.S., European and Russian officials who were familiar with the recent negotiations.

现在，奥巴马政府只得对普京采取更具对抗性的政策，但目前还不清楚这种对抗姿态做得有多彻底。多位熟悉近期谈判内容的美欧及俄罗斯官员描述了奥巴马外交努力的内幕，包括拉夫罗夫试图请示普京的那通电话。

Since the crisis over Ukraine erupted last month, the White House gave Secretary of State John Kerry the task of aggressively engaging Mr. Lavrov. But the administration soon concluded that the Soviet-trained bureaucrat wasn't empowered to cut deals on the Kremlin's plans to annex Ukraine's Crimean region.

上月乌克兰危机爆发之后，白宫把积极游说拉夫罗夫的重任交给了美国国务卿克里(John Kerry)。但是白宫很快发现，在俄罗斯吞并克里米亚的计划上，这位前苏联培训出来的官僚并没有和美方磋商协议的决定权。

The White House, sensing its isolation from Mr. Putin, desperately set about to find alternate channels to influence Russia's strongman and to step up Mr. Obama's outreach to him, according to senior U.S. officials.

据美国高级官员讲，白宫意识到了普京根本不愿意与之对话，于是开始拼命寻找其他途径来影响这位俄罗斯的政治强人，奥巴马也加大了与普京的沟通力度。

The moves included establishing back channels with Moscow-friendly foreign leaders. Mr. Obama phoned German Chancellor Angela Merkel multiple times, as well as British Prime Minister David Cameron and French President François Hollande, and reached out to Nursultan Nazerbayev, Kazakhstan's ruler, the White House said. Mr. Kerry has met with Israel's Russian-born foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, at least once, U.S. and Israeli officials said. The efforts didn't seem to have much impact. (Mr. Nazerbayev recognized the Kremlin's annexation of Crimea on Tuesday.)

美国采取的措施中包括与亲俄的外国领导人进行私下沟通。白宫说，奥巴马多次致电德国总理默克尔(Angela Merkel)、英国首相卡梅伦(David Cameron)、法国总统奥朗德(Francois Hollande)，并与哈萨克斯坦总统纳扎尔巴耶夫(Nursultan Nazerbayev)进行了接洽。据美国和以色列官员说，克里与出生在俄罗斯的以色列外长利伯曼(Avigdor Lieberman)至少举行过一次会晤。但是这些努力似乎收效甚微。（纳扎尔巴耶夫周二承认克里米亚入俄。）

Mr. Obama in four phone calls with Mr. Putin over the past month totaling 4 1/2 hours also failed to make headway with a leader he had cultivated as a crucial ally in trying to roll back the spread of nuclear weapons and international terrorism.

过去一个月奥巴马与普京通话四次，总时长达到四个半小时，但也未能取得进展。奥巴马曾经把普京当作一位重要盟友，本打算和他在抑制核武器扩张以及反恐方面进行合作。

This dynamic created a growing unease in Washington that Mr. Putin was simply using diplomacy--and Mr. Lavrov--as political cover for moving his forces into Crimea and possibly greater Ukraine. Mr. Lavrov repeatedly assured Mr. Kerry that Russia planned to respect Ukraine's borders.

局势的发展令华盛顿愈发不安，担心普京只是拿外交和拉夫罗夫作为其朝克里米亚（甚至更广阔的乌克兰内陆）派兵的障眼法。拉夫罗夫曾再三向克里保证，俄罗斯尊重乌克兰的领土主权。

Kremlin officials have said Russia's diplomatic efforts were genuine. Mr. Lavrov couldn't be reached for comment.

俄罗斯官员则说，莫斯科的外交努力是真诚的。记者未能联系到拉夫罗夫发表评论。

Mr. Obama in recent years has treated the Kremlin as a top U.S. diplomatic partner in addressing national-security challenges despite evidence Mr. Putin was working at cross purposes to U.S. ambitions in many parts of the world.

近年来，奥巴马在应对国家安全挑战时一直将克里姆林宫视为美国最重要的外交伙伴，尽管有证据表明普京在世界很多地方的所作所为都与美国的目标背道而驰。

On Syria, Mr. Kerry and Mr. Lavrov formulated diplomatic tracks aimed at disarming President Bashar al-Assad of his chemical-weapons arsenal and ending the civil war. But two years after the diplomacy started, Mr. Assad has solidified his position in Damascus while Moscow has intensified its arms shipments to the Syrian military, U.S. and Arab officials have said.

在叙利亚问题上，克里和拉夫罗夫制定了让叙利亚总统阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)交出化学武器储备并终结叙利亚内战的外交轨道。但美国和阿拉伯官员说，在外交途径启动两年后，阿萨德不仅巩固了他在大马士革的地位，莫斯科也加强了对叙利亚军方的武器输送。

On Iran and North Korea, the White House made Russia a central player in its efforts to prevent Tehran and Pyongyang from acquiring nuclear weapons. But the diplomacy has done little to halt the countries' progress. Now, the Obama administration has publicly voiced alarm that Moscow could torpedo current talks with Tehran by agreeing to build new reactors for Iran in a barter exchange for Iranian oil.

在伊朗和朝鲜问题上，白宫让俄罗斯唱主角，阻止德黑兰和平壤获得核武器。但外交斡旋在促使这两个国家停止发展核武器方面收效甚微。如今奥巴马政府已公开警告说，莫斯科为了获得伊朗石油可能会同意为伊朗建新的核反应堆，破坏目前与德黑兰的谈判。

Rep. Eric Cantor, the No. 2 Republican in the House, said on Tuesday that Mr. Putin's play for Ukraine shouldn't have surprised the White House, given his track record on such issues as Syria and Iran. He called on Mr. Obama to escalate sanctions and consider military support to Ukraine. 'It is past time we reassess our entire strategy towards a nation that poses an increasing threat to international peace and security,' he said.

美国众议院共和党二号人物坎托(Eric Cantor)周二说，考虑到前车之鉴，白宫不应对普京在乌克兰问题上耍的把戏感到意外，他在叙利亚和伊朗等问题上就这么干过。坎托呼吁奥巴马加强制裁，并考虑向乌克兰提供军事支援。他说，美国早就应该全面评估对俄战略，俄罗斯目前对国际和平和安全已经构成越来越大的威胁。

Obama aides said his outreach to Russia over the past five years has been worth it. 'It wasn't a failure, because the reset was premised on two things: first, that there were areas where out of mutual self-interest it made sense to cooperate with Russia,' said Tony Blinken, Mr. Obama's Deputy National Security Adviser, in an interview. 'But, second, there would be areas where we would not cooperate because our differences were too stark, like the issue of spheres of influence, which we reject.'

奥巴马的助理说，过去五年奥巴马对俄罗斯示好是值得的。奥巴马副国家安全顾问布林肯(Tony Blinken)接受采访时说，这并非失策，因为战略调整有两个基本前提：一是在某些领域出于共同利益有必要与俄罗斯合作，二是有些领域双方分歧太大而无法合作，例如美国反对的势力范围问题。

With Russia's declared plan to annex Crimea, the Obama administration has signaled a more confrontational stance toward the Kremlin, including sanctioning some of Mr. Putin's aides and senior officials. The White House also indicated it could move to impose broad financial sanctions, targeting Russian arms and resource companies, if Moscow moves to carve out larger sections of Ukraine.

在俄罗斯宣布克里米亚入俄计划后，奥巴马政府已经暗示将对克里姆林宫采取对抗性更强的立场，包括制裁普京的一些助理和俄罗斯高级官员等。白宫还表示，如果莫斯科对乌克兰有进一步的企图，美国可能针对俄罗斯军火商和资源企业实施广泛的金融制裁。

Still, the White House and State Department have shown a reluctance to give up diplomacy with the Russians. Mr. Kerry continues to talk with Mr. Lavrov almost daily, U.S. officials said, and hasn't ruled out having direct talks with Mr. Putin. Mr. Obama said on Monday that he still sees a diplomatic resolution to the crisis 'in a way that addresses the interests of both Russia and Ukraine,' a stance echoed by Germany and other U.S. allies.

尽管如此，白宫和美国国务院表示，不愿放弃与俄罗斯的外交斡旋。美国官员说，克里仍几乎每天与拉夫罗夫通话，且尚未排除与普京直接对话的可能性。奥巴马周一说，他仍认为存在一种既能化解危机、同时又能顾及到俄罗斯和乌克兰两国利益的外交途径。德国和美国的其他盟友支持这一立场。

The U.S. position is feeding growing fears in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus region that Washington and the European Union eventually will adapt to a Russian absorption of Crimea, if not Ukraine as a whole.

考虑到美国的这一态度，东欧和高加索地区越来越担心这样一个后果：只要俄罗斯没有并吞乌克兰整个国家，华盛顿和欧盟最终会适应俄罗斯对克里米亚的兼并。

The U.S. embraced a more aggressive diplomatic role in the Ukraine crisis on Feb. 22. The Obama administration and EU were stunned when former Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych, a close Kremlin ally, fled Kiev following massive street protests.

美国在2月22日的乌克兰危机中采取了一种更加大胆的外交策略。前乌克兰总统、俄罗斯的亲密盟友亚努科维奇(Victor Yanukovych)在大规模街头抗议活动之后逃离基辅，这一事件令奥巴马政府和欧盟震惊。

U.S. officials welcomed the expected Westward tilt of a new Ukrainian government. But the administration refrained from publicly championing Mr. Yanukovych's overthrow as a Cold War-style victory, fearing it could rattle Mr. Putin, U.S. officials said.

美国官员对新上台的乌克兰政府预料中的亲西方态度表示来欢迎。但美国官员称，美国政府没有公开宣称亚努科维奇下台是冷战式的胜利，担心这么做可能激怒普京。

The Obama administration's initial reaction focused on using Ukraine's political transition as an opportunity for cooperation with Moscow. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew met in Australia with his Russian counterpart, Anton Siluanov, a day after Mr. Yanukovych's overthrow and sought to jointly develop an economic-aid package for Ukraine. Mr. Kerry held one of his more-than-a-dozen phone calls with Mr. Lavrov since the Ukraine crisis erupted, seeking common ground on political reforms for Kiev and the protection of ethnic Russians in Ukraine.

奥巴马政府最初的反应重点是利用乌克兰的政治过渡期作为与莫斯科方面合作的机会。在亚努科维奇下台后的第二天，美国财长卢(Jacob Lew)在澳大利亚与俄罗斯财长西卢安诺夫(Anton Siluanov)举行了会晤，试图联手拿出一套针对乌克兰的经济救援方案。克里则与拉夫罗夫通了电话，试图在乌克兰政治改革以及保护在乌俄罗斯族人方面达成共同立场。自乌克兰危机爆发以来，克里已与拉夫罗夫通了十几次电话。

'We don't see the world in zero sum terms,' said Mr. Blinken, the deputy national-security adviser, 'and in the case of Ukraine for example, a successful, integrated Ukraine is not only good for Ukraine, it's actually good for Russia.'

副国家安全顾问布林肯称，美国并不是以零和的方式来看世界，以乌克兰为例，一个成功、完整的乌克兰不光对乌克兰是好事，对俄罗斯来也有利。

As the Kremlin prepared in February to deploy troops across Crimea, Messrs. Obama and Kerry intensified their efforts to walk back Russia from a confrontation.

在2月份俄罗斯政府准备向克里米亚部署军队时，奥巴马和克里加大了努力，试图让俄罗斯避免采取对抗行动。

Mr. Obama's 90-minute phone conversation with Mr. Putin on March 1 was longer than any call he has had with a foreign leader except Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said a senior administration official.

一位美国政府高官表示，3月1日奥巴马与普京通了90分钟的电话，这是除了以色列总理内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)之外，奥巴马与外国领导人通话时间最长的一次。

The presidents have become blunt in their exchanges. In the March 1 call, they spent most of the time disagreeing over the facts on the ground in Ukraine, U.S. officials said. Mr. Putin insisted that ethnic Russians were in danger in the former Soviet state, while Mr. Obama said: 'That's just not true.'

两位总统在电话中都直言不讳。美国官员称，在3月1日的电话中，他们大多数时间都对乌克兰局势的事实有分歧。普京坚称在乌克兰的俄罗斯族人面临危险，而奥巴马则表示：情况不是这样。

During their discussion, Mr. Obama made clear he was serious about sanctions and presented Mr. Putin with a version of a resolution he had been discussing with Ms. Merkel and others. Mr. Putin indicated he heard the message but didn't show his hand, the senior administration official said.

在通话期间，奥巴马清楚地表明他有关可能制裁俄罗斯的说法是严肃的，并向普京提出了他与默克尔和其他人讨论的一个解决方案。上述美国政府高官称，普京暗示他已明白奥巴马的意思，但却没有作出表态。

The White House and State Department have sought out U.S. allies who have more-cordial relations with Mr. Putin. On March 4, Mr. Obama talked to Ms. Merkel for nearly an hour by phone, going over the outlines of a potential resolution to the crisis. He has spoken with her at least twice since then, U.S. officials said, including on Tuesday.

白宫和美国国务院找到与普京关系较好的美国盟友。3月4日，奥巴马与默克尔通了近一个小时电话，详细讨论应对这场危机的可能解决方案。美国官员说，之后他至少又与默克尔通了两次电话，包括周二。

Mr. Kerry's close working relationship with Mr. Lavrov has dominated the diplomacy. They are an unlikely pair: a Vietnam War veteran who sailboards and a chain-smoking Soviet-schooled bureaucrat known for sharp suits and wry humor.

克里与拉夫罗夫密切的工作联系成为外交策略的重点。这两人看上去格格不入：克里是越战老兵，爱好帆板，老烟枪拉夫罗夫则是在前苏联接受教育的官僚，以考究的西服和黑色幽默而闻名。

Mr. Kerry, after a four-hour stop in Kiev on March 5, flew to Paris and Rome for meetings with Mr. Lavrov. Mr. Kerry brought with him Ukraine's interim foreign minister, Andrii Deshchytsia, in hopes of brokering a direct meeting with Mr. Lavrov. The Russian refused, saying the Kremlin didn't recognize Ukraine's new government.

3月5日，克里在基辅停留四个小时之后飞往巴黎和罗马与拉夫罗夫会面。与克里一道前往的还有乌克兰临时外交部长德谢茨亚(Andrii Deshchytsia)，克里希望能促成他与拉夫罗夫会面。但俄罗斯方面予以拒绝，说俄政府不承认乌克兰新政府。

Mr. Kerry passed to Mr. Lavrov in Rome a one-page document outlining a resolution on Ukraine that the U.S. wanted to be presented to Mr. Putin. Moscow responded by inviting Mr. Kerry to meet with Mr. Putin in Sochi. The White House and State Department demurred, wanting to see if Mr. Putin responded substantively to the proposals. Mr. Kerry then sent Mr. Lavrov a more detailed document, U.S. officials said.

克里在罗马向拉夫罗夫递交了一份长一页的文件，列举了美方希望转达给普京的针对乌克兰问题的解决方案。莫斯科方面的回应是邀请克里在索契与普京会晤。白宫和美国国务院提出异议，希望了解普京是否对这些提议有实质性的反馈。美国官员说，克里随后向拉夫罗夫递交了更详细的文件。

But the Kremlin used the exchange to paint the U.S. as not serious about negotiations. During a break from the Sochi Paralympic Games, Mr. Putin met Mr. Lavrov on March 10 before state-television cameras. When Mr. Putin requested an update on the negotiations, Mr. Lavrov said Mr. Kerry had scheduled and then canceled his trip.

但俄罗斯政府利用这次交锋，说美国没有认真对待谈判。在索契残奥会的间隙，普京与拉夫罗夫于3月10日一道出现在了国有电视台的镜头前。普京问及谈判的最新情况，拉夫罗夫说，克里此前规划了访俄行程，但后来取消了。

'He gave preliminary approval, but then on Saturday, he called me back and said he'd like to put off the trip, as he put it, because in Washington another piece of paper had appeared,' Mr. Lavrov said disdainfully. 'But we're not just passively receiving proposals from our colleagues.'

拉夫罗夫轻蔑地说，克里一开始同意来，但周六他给我回电话说，他想推迟行程，据他所说，原因是华盛顿出现了另外一份文件。拉夫罗夫说，但我们不是仅仅被动地接受同仁的提案。

Mr. Kerry tried one more time on March 14 to get the Kremlin to back off Crimea in six hours of talks with Mr. Lavrov in London. U.S. officials who took part said the Russian diplomat wasn't prepared to discuss concessions. It was during those meetings that he reported to the U.S. side that he called Mr. Putin but ended up speaking with Mr. Putin's chief of staff instead.

3月14日，克里再次做出努力，与拉夫罗夫在伦敦进行了六个小时的会谈，试图让俄罗斯放弃克里米亚。参与会谈的美国官员说，拉夫罗夫没有准备讨论放弃问题。在那次会晤期间，他告诉美国方面说，他给普京打了电话，但最终只与普京的幕僚长通了话。

Mr. Obama held one more phone call with Mr. Putin on Sunday before the Russian leader declared his plan to annex Crimea. Mr. Obama told Mr. Putin that sanctions and travel bans would be slapped on his aides the following day and that financial sanctions could intensify.

奥巴马周日再次与普京通电话，之后普京宣布了接受克里米亚入俄的计划。奥巴马对普京说，第二天将对普京的助手实施制裁和旅行禁令，还说金融制裁力度也可能加强。

In recent days, senior U.S. officials have begun outlining a confrontational strategy that marks a policy U-turn. Some U.S. officials have described an attempt to freeze Russian banks and companies out of the Western financial system.

最近几天，美国高官已经开始规划对抗策略，这标志着政策上的极大转变。一些美国官员描述了将俄罗斯银行和企业冻结在西方金融体系之外的举措。

Russian officials mocked the impact of the U.S. sanctions, and Mr. Lavrov threatened on Tuesday to retaliate.

俄罗斯官员嘲笑美国制裁措施的影响，拉夫罗夫周二威胁要还以颜色。