朝鲜高层金正恩着手大清洗是危险信号

An already volatile northeast Asia may be on the brink of more turbulence. Just when you thought it could not get any more unpredictable, reports of internal turmoil suggest the black hole that is North Korea just grew bigger, portending more trouble.

本就局势不稳的东北亚可能滑向更大的动荡。就在你以为朝鲜局势不可能变得更加不可预测之际，关于朝鲜内政混乱局面的报道表明，黑洞变得更大了，这预示着会有更多的麻烦。

It is not just that Jang Song Thaek, brother-in-law of former leader Kim Jong Il, has been purged and that two of his aides were reportedly part of a wave of public executions.

这不仅仅是说朝鲜前任领导人金正日(Kim Jong Il)的妹夫张成泽(Jang Song Thaek)遭到了整肃，以及有报道称张成泽的两名助手被公开处决。

Mr Jang was widely considered one of the powers behind the throne advising the boy general, Kim Jong Un. Whether or not Mr Jang was a closet reformer, sympathetic to a Chinese-style opening, is likely to be revealed by future developments. But one near certainty is that ill-conceived, erratic and potentially dangerous behaviour looms.

外界普遍认为，张成泽是朝鲜娃娃将军金正恩(Kim Jong Un)的摄政王，是朝鲜最有权势的人物之一。张成泽私底下是否是一个改革者，以及是否赞同中国式的开放政策，日后或许能够揭晓。但几乎确定无疑的一个势头是，朝鲜眼看着很可能做出欠缺考虑、反复无常而且可能带来危险的行为。

If, as appears to be the case, the latest wave of purges (he had already removed a score of senior ageing generals) reflects a consolidation of Mr Kim’s power, we may be in for a wild ride. How else to explain his baffling behaviour?

如果最新这波整肃行动是因为金正恩在巩固权力（情况似乎确实如此，金正恩已经撤换掉了十几位资深的老将军），我们可能会看到局势变得更加动荡。他那令人困惑的行为还有其他的解释吗？

North Korean officials say they want foreign investment in new special economic zones. But then they shut down the one showcase experiment, the Kaesong Industrial Zone, where South Korean companies have employed 52,000 North Koreans.

朝鲜官员表示，他们希望外国人到朝鲜新设立的经济特区投资。但他们曾经关闭一个样本项目——开城工业区(Kaesong Industrial Zone)。在开城工业区，韩国公司雇佣了5.2万名朝鲜工人。

Mr Kim builds dolphinariums, amusement parks and a ski slope to encourage tourism, but takes an 85-year-old American tourist hostage because he fought in the Korean war.

金正恩建造了海豚馆、游乐园和一条滑雪坡道来刺激旅游，但他扣押了一名参加过朝鲜战争的85岁的美国游客。

Then there are Mr Kim’s whimsical priorities for engaging foreigners. While he snubbed Eric Schmidt, the head of Google, he hangs out with US basketball star Dennis Rodman, who is to help coach North Korea’s team. This is on top of reports of a wave of repression, including executions for the “crime” of viewing South Korean movies.

还有，在与外国人打交道的时候，金正恩最看重什么呢？他的态度显得变化无常。他冷落谷歌董事长埃里克•施密特(Eric Schmidt)，却与美国篮球明星丹尼斯•罗德曼(Dennis Rodman)关系友好，后者将成为朝鲜国家篮球队的一名教练。另外还有一系列镇压行动的报道，包括以观看韩国电影的“罪名”处决犯人。

It all seems more like an overgrown spoiled child lacking adult supervision than the leader of a state building intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. And that, for long-term North Korea watchers, smells like trouble.

所有这些看起来让金正恩更像是一个缺乏管教、被惯坏了的大孩子，而不是一个建造洲际弹道导弹和核武器的国家的领导人。在长期关注朝鲜问题的人士看来，这可能意味着麻烦。

Tell-tale signs include reports of activity at a long-range missile site and hints of activity at a nuclear test site. Moreover, South Korean officials have told its parliament that Pyongyang has deployed attack helicopters and rockets in an area near the Northern Limit Line, a disputed sea border west of the Korean coast.

令人不安的迹象包括一个远程导弹基地相关活动的报道和核试验场所的活动迹象。此外，韩国官员在本国议会上表示，平壤在靠近有争议的海上分界线——“北方限制线”(Northern Limit Line,NLL)的地区部署了攻击型直升机和火箭。

Sound familiar? These are all time-honoured North Korean provocations designed to win attention, boost the military and serve as blackmail for aid. Pyongyang has been trying for many years to perfect an ICBM, most recently a road-mobile one, so far with modest success.

听起来有些熟悉？这些全都是朝鲜由来已久的旨在吸引注意力、提升军力和索要援助而进行的挑衅活动。平壤方面多年来一直在努力完善洲际弹道导弹技术，最近研制的公路机动洲际弹道导弹取得了初步成果。

There are also fears that the North, the only nation to stage a nuclear test in the 21st century, may be considering a fourth test. And if it provokes a military clash with Seoul, it would be an encore to the sinking of the Cheonan, which appeared to have been hit with a torpedo in 2010.

人们还担心，朝鲜可能正在考虑进行第四次核试验。朝鲜是21世纪唯一进行了核试验的国家。如果它挑起与韩国的军事冲突，韩国“天安号”军舰沉没的事件将再次上演。2010年，从表面看来，“天安号”军舰被一只鱼雷击沉。

North Korean provocation is also intended to create a climate of siege in order to tighten internal control, which is said to be happening now. Similar behaviour was seen in March, when Mr Kim told foreign embassies to evacuate because war was about to break out.

朝鲜进行挑衅的目的还在于创造一种遭受围攻的氛围以便加强国内的控制——据说现在就是这种情况。今年3月份朝鲜作出了类似的动作，当时金正恩以战争即将爆发为由，要求外国大使馆人员撤离。

Any such developments would also underscore that Mr Kim is faithfully backing the “military first” policies of his father. If the recent internal purges reflect a power struggle, they may have been over efforts by some to reallocate resources enjoyed by the military.

诸如此类的情况还突显出，金正恩坚决支持其父亲的“先军”政策。如果说最近的国内整肃反映出权力的争斗，那么这些争斗也可能是一些人争抢军方资源的努力。

In any case, this all bodes for still more volatility in northeast Asia. New missile or nuclear tests would put more pressure on China to cut off its client in Pyongyang and further test US-China relations. Similarly, a naval clash risks undermining South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s “trust-building” efforts, a tough transactional approach to North-South relations – and, more troubling, provoking a South Korean response that could easily escalate.

不管怎样，所有这些预示着东北亚局势将会更加动荡不安。新导弹或核试验将让中国有更大的压力放弃对朝鲜的庇护，并将进一步考验美中关系。同样，如果朝韩海军爆发冲突，就有可能破坏韩国总统朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)“建立信任关系”的努力，而且更麻烦的是可能引发韩国的回应，这很容易导致事态升级。

While hard facts about events in North Korea remain scarce and unreliable, it has been a pattern that when Pyongyang is out of the spotlight for a while, it finds a way to make headlines. Stay tuned.

关于朝鲜局势，我们依然没有掌握多少确凿可靠的情况，但朝鲜已经形成一种行为模式，如果有一段时间不受关注，它就会设法登上报纸头条。敬请关注。