朝鲜清洗张成泽引发政局不稳猜疑

North Korea's highest-profile leadership purge since Kim Jong Un took power is viewed by outside observers as a move to consolidate power that could trigger instability if it upsets the balance between the military and the ruling party.

在外部观察人士看来，朝鲜自金正恩(Kim Jong Un)上台以来最受关注的领导层清洗是金正恩为巩固权力而采取的一步行动，但如果清洗打破了军方和执政党之间的平衡，有可能影响政局稳定。

On Monday, North Korean state television showed Mr. Kim's uncle, Jang Song Thaek, being dragged out of a meeting by security officials, reinforcing the unusually public downfall of the de facto No. 2 in the regime.

朝鲜国家电视台周一播出了朝鲜政坛实际上的二号人物、金正恩姑父张成泽(Jang Song Thaek)被安全人员拖出某会议室的画面，这让他的倒台更加不同寻常。

Mr. Jang and his associates were accused of a litany of 'antistate' crimes, ranging from corruption to womanizing and drug-taking, by a meeting of officials from the central committee of North Korea's Workers' Party on Sunday.

周日，劳动党中央政治局扩大会议宣布，张成泽及其党羽犯下了叛国罪，还包括腐败、与女性搞不正当关系、吸毒等罪行。

The report was carried on the front page of North Korea's main newspaper, with a large photo of Mr. Kim overseeing the meeting.

相关报道刊登在朝鲜主要报纸的头版，还配了一张大幅照片，显示金正恩在主持这次扩大会议。

Mr. Jang's fate is unknown. One report from a radio station in Seoul run by North Korean defectors said he had been executed. South Korean intelligence officials believe some of Mr. Jang's aides have been killed.

张成泽未来的命运如何还不得而知。首尔一家由脱北者运营的电台报道说，张成泽已被处死。韩国情报机构官员认为，张成泽的几名手下已经被杀。

The removal of Mr. Jang, a man believed to have acted as a regent for the 30-something leader, marks Mr. Kim's boldest purge since taking power at the end of 2011.

据信，张成泽曾担任朝鲜这位30岁左右领导人的摄政者角色，而他的下台是金正恩自2011年底上台以来最大胆的一次清洗行动。

As much as the disposal of a figure like Mr. Jang surprised North Korea watchers, so did the stage-managed show to convict him in front of senior members of the ruling party.

不但张成泽这种级别的人物被清洗让外界观察人士感到意外，在执政党高级官员面前上演的“定罪秀”也让这些人士吃惊不已。

The purge even extended to film. In a documentary aired on state television on Saturday about Mr. Kim's inspection of a military unit, Mr. Jang was removed from a total of 13 scenes, compared with a previous version of the program, South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported.

清洗活动还延伸到了胶片上。韩国的韩联社(Yonhap News Agency)报道称，在上周六朝鲜国家电视台播放的一个有关金正恩视察某部队的纪录片中，与之前播放的一个版本相比，张成泽的身影从13个镜头中被删除。

The purge could be an effort by Mr. Kim to exert power over the party following a succession of purges to rein in the military.

这次清洗可能是金正恩在为控制军队进行的一系列清洗之后，为控制执政党做出的努力。

Last year Mr. Kim removed Ri Yong Ho as chief of the general staff of the Korean People's Army. Since then he has cycled through three top generals. Mr. Jang has represented North Korea in economic talks with China.

去年金正恩解除了李英浩(Ri Yong Ho)朝鲜人民军总参谋长一职。从那之后，他连续替换了三名高级将领。张成泽曾代表朝鲜与中国进行经济会谈。

Political purges are in the DNA for Mr. Kim. His grandfather, North Korea's first ruler, Kim Il Sung, periodically ousted entire factions that posed a threat or disagreed with his views, starting from the late 1950s.

金正恩的身体里流淌着政治清洗的血液。金正恩的祖父、朝鲜首位统治者金日成(Kim Il Sung)从上世纪50年代末开始，便会不时地铲除对其构成一定威胁或与其意见相左的整个派系。

Under the current dictator's father, Kim Jong Il, senior officials were killed or ousted as scapegoats for policy failure.

金正恩的父亲金正日(Kim Jong Il)当权时，每当政策失败，总会有高级官员因此背黑锅，被杀或罢免。

The younger Mr. Kim has culled close to half of the top military leaders and other officials who served under his father. While some argue that his succession of purges show he is effectively consolidating power, others express concern about whether he will be able to manage the competing interests under his charge.

那些曾效命于其父金正日的高级军事将领和其他官员，已有近一半遭金正恩清洗。有人认为，金正恩对清洗的继承表明，他实际上是在巩固权力。也有人对他是否能够协调属下的利益之争表示担心。

A difficult balancing act between the military and the party is at the core of North Korea policy. Shortly after his ascent to power, Mr. Kim's regime adopted an ideology known as byungjin that simultaneously prioritizes economic development and nuclear weapons, which North Korea calls its nonnegotiable 'treasured sword.'

朝鲜政策的核心是寻求军队与执政党之间的平衡，这是一个艰难的过程。金正恩上台后不久，其政权便采取了名为“并行发展”(byungjin)的意识形态，即同时优先发展经济和核武器，朝鲜将此称为不容商榷的“宝剑”。

Mismatched policies and dueling factions could unsettle the regime. 'The biggest danger to the regime remains from within,' said Scott Snyder, Washington-based director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. 'It could be that the steps that Kim Jong Un is taking are steps that are potentially corrosive, rather than consolidationist.'

政策错位和派系斗争可能会动摇政权。美国外交关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)美朝政策研究计划驻华盛顿负责人斯奈德(Scott Snyder)说，朝鲜面临的最大危险仍来自于内部。他说，金正恩目前采取的步骤可能具有潜在破坏性，并不利于政权的巩固。

Mr. Kim's decision to remove Mr. Ri last year and Mr. Jang this year 'constitute signs of internal churn and serious infighting, not a smooth transition,' said Victor Cha, a former U.S. official and specialist on North Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

美国前官员、华盛顿战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)朝鲜问题专家Victor Cha说，金正恩分别于去年和今年铲除了李英浩和张成泽，他的决定说明朝鲜政坛内部出现了纷扰动荡和严重内讧，政权的过渡并不顺利。

The danger from a U.S. perspective is that the regime may seek to address any lack of control with more aggressive behavior abroad, Mr. Cha said.

Cha说，从美国的角度看，眼下的危险是朝鲜政权可能会通过在海外做出更激进的举动，从而寻求解决内部的缺乏控制问题。

The new array of senior military figures following Mr. Kim's purges may also be emboldened by the removal of Mr. Jang, sensing a power shift back to the armed forces. South Korean officials have expressed concerns about possible instability and military provocations by North Korea following the leadership purge.

金正恩的清洗动作完成后，新就任的高级军事领导可能会因张成泽的倒台而信心大增，他们会感觉到权力重心重新向军队转移。韩国官员对此表达了忧虑，认为朝鲜领导层洗牌结束后，可能会出现政局不稳和军事挑 的情况。

On Monday the defense ministry said there had been no signs of unusual activity or movements by the North Korean militarybut added it was monitoring closely.

韩国国防部周一说，尚无迹象表明朝鲜军队展开了任何不寻常的活动或举动。但同时表示，正密切关注事态发展。