由于二孩政策 中国人口峰值将在2028年达14.5亿

A senior family planning official said last Saturday that due to the introduction of the two-child policy, China's Population is predicted to peak at about 1.45 billion by the end of 2028, three years later than expected.

一名计划生育部门高级官员于上周六表示，由于二孩政策的出台，中国人口预计将于2028年迎来14.5亿的峰值，比预期晚了三年。

China will have an estimated over 17.5 million newborns in 2016, roughly equal to the number in 2000 and coinciding with predictions made after the introduction of two-child policy in January, Wang Peian, deputy head of the National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC), told a conference on population and development, reported.

据中新网报道，中国国家卫生和计划生育委员会副主任王培安在一场人口与发展会议上表示，中国2016年新生儿数量预计将超过1750万，大致相当于2000年前后的出生的人口规模，与今年一月二孩政策出台后的预测相一致。

"According to the predictions, if China kept the previous strict family planning policy, the population would peak at 1.415 billion in 2025," said Zhai Zhenwu, a demographer and president of the School of Sociology and Population Studies under Renmin University of China.

中国人民大学人口统计学家、社会学与人口研究学院院长翟振武表示：“预测结果显示，如果维持原来较严格的生育政策不变，总人口规模将在2025年时就迎来峰值，达到14.15亿人。”

But the two-child policy will delay the peak until 2028 and it will reach the larger size of 1.45 billion.

但是二孩政策将把这一人口峰值延迟到2028年，届时将达到更大规模的14.5亿人。

The two-child policy, on one hand, will make China's population peak higher, but on the other hand the policy will postpone the population inflection point and slow down the speed at which the population shrinks, according to Zhai.

据翟振武表示，一方面二孩政策会使得中国的人口高峰值更高，但是另一方面该政策也将推迟人口拐点出现的时间、放缓人口减少的速度。

China had a population of 1.37 billion at the end of 2015, up 6.8 million from the end of 2014, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

根据国家统计局公布的数据显示，2015年底中国人口共计约为13.7亿，比2014年底时增加了680万人。