看中国崛起如何改变亚洲格局
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are criss-crossing America in the last frantic weeks of the presidential election campaign.
在美国总统大选忙乱的最后几周里，希拉里.克林顿(Hillary Clinton)和唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)在美国各地穿梭。
But events will not stand still, while America decides.
但局势不会停止演变等待美国做出决定。
On the other side of the world, the US has just suffered a significant strategic reverse.
在世界的另一端，美国刚刚遭遇了重大的战略挫折。
That setback is the apparent decision by the Philippines to switch sides in the emerging power struggle between the US and China.
菲律宾似乎决定在美国与中国新展开的权力争斗中转变立场。
On a visit to Beijing last week, Rodrigo Duterte, the president of the Philippines, announced a separation from the US and a new special relationship between his country and China.
在上周访问北京期间，菲律宾总统罗德里戈.杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)宣布与美国分离，并与中国建立新的特殊关系。
In one of the odder diplomatic pronouncements of an odd year, Mr Duterte proclaimed in the Great Hall of the People in the Chinese capital: There are three of us against the world — China, Philippines and Russia.
杜特尔特在北京的人民大会堂宣称：我们三国将共抗世界——中国、菲律宾、俄罗斯。
It’s the only way.
这是唯一的道路。
This statement was greeted by warm applause from his audience.
这是在一个反常之年里更为反常的外交声明之一，在场听众报以热烈掌声。
Mr Duterte has a tendency to shoot his mouth off.
杜特尔特往往会信口开河。
In an appearance soon after taking office, he made headlines by calling US president Barack Obama the son of a whore.
他在就任总统不久的一次公开露面中骂美国总统巴拉克.奥巴马(Barack Obama)是婊子养的，从而登上了新闻头条。
But there is more than mere bluster involved in the Duterte pivot.
但杜特尔特的转变立场不仅仅是说大话。
The Filipino leader has also said that he intends to end military co-operation with the US.
这位菲律宾领导人还表示，他打算停止与美国的军事合作。
Joint naval patrols in the Pacific will apparently come to a stop, as will joint counter¬terrorism operations on the southern island of Mindanao.
太平洋上的联合海军巡逻看来将会取消，菲律宾南部棉兰老岛(Mindanao)上的联合反恐演习也将告吹。
Some American strategists are worried that the Philippines might even now become a base for the swiftly expanding Chinese navy.
一些美国战略家担心，菲律宾甚至可能成为迅速扩张的中国海军的基地。
Mrs Clinton, in particular, will understand the significance of all this.
希拉里尤其明白所有这些事件的重大影响。
A central theme of her period at the state department was an effort to bolster America’s position in Asia and the Pacific.
她任职国务卿期间的一大要务是努力提升美国在亚洲和太平洋地区的地位。
It was Mrs Clinton who proclaimed in 2010 that the US has a national interest in freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.
正是希拉里在2010年宣称，南中国海上的航行自由攸关美国国家利益。
This statement outraged the Chinese, whose famous nine-dash line on oceanic maps appears to claim that almost all of the South China Sea lies within Beijing’s territorial waters.
这种声明激怒了中国人，中国在海洋地图上划定的著名的九段线似乎表明，南中国海几乎所有海域都属于中国的领海范围。
As Mrs Clinton told Goldman Sachs, in a speech given in 2013 and recently leaked, she is worried that China’s maritime claims will give it a chokehold on sea lanes and also on the countries that border the South China Sea.
正如希拉里向高盛(Goldman Sachs)表示的那样，她担心中国的海洋主张将使其能够扼守海上航线并压制南中国海周边国家。希拉里是在2013年发表上述演讲的，最近演讲内容流传了出来。
Those concerns have since been further stoked by China’s programme of island building in the disputed waters.
自那以来中国实施了在有争议海域建造岛屿的项目，这进一步激发了那些担忧。
The Philippines was at the centre of America’s strategic and legal efforts to loosen China’s potential chokehold over the South China Sea.
美国试图从战略和法律层面解除中国对南中国海的潜在遏制，菲律宾处于这种努力的核心。
Some of the tensest disputes in the sea — such as arguments over the ownership of Scarborough Shoal — involve a face-off between China and the Philippines.
一些与南中国海相关的最激烈的争论——比如围绕斯卡伯勒浅滩(Scarborough Shoal,中国称黄岩岛——译者注)主权的争论——就涉及中国与菲律宾的对峙。
It was Manila that brought a legal challenge against Beijing’s claims over the South China Sea, winning a ruling at an international tribunal in July.
正是马尼拉起诉中国关于南中国海的主张，并在今年7月被一家国际仲裁庭裁定胜诉。
This ruling is crucial to Washington’s argument that its dispute with China is not a crude power struggle but rather an effort, by the US, to protect the international legal order in the interests of all.
这项裁决对华盛顿的以下论点非常重要：美国与中国的争执不是原始的权力争斗，而是美国为了所有人的利益而努力保护国际法律秩序。
On a purely strategic level, the Philippines is (or was) also vital to America’s efforts to counter the military facilities that China seems to be building on its artificial islands.
在纯粹的战略层面，菲律宾还对美国对抗中国似乎在人造岛上建造的军事设施至关重要，或者说之前是这样。
Earlier this year, Manila and Washington agreed to increase America’s military presence in five bases on Filipino territory, including an air base on the island of Palawan, very close to the disputed Spratly Islands.
今年早些时候，马尼拉和华盛顿同意增强美国在菲律宾境内5个美军基地上的军事存在，包括在巴拉望岛(Palawan)的一个空军基地，而巴拉望岛距离有争议的斯普拉特利群岛(Spratly Islands,中国称南沙群岛)非常近。
Those US-Philippine agreements now look likely to be revoked.
那些美菲协议现在看起来可能被取销。
More broadly, America’s moral case for standing up to China looks much weaker if China’s own neighbours no longer seem so worried by its territorial claims.
更广泛来说，如果中国自己的邻国不再那么担忧中国的领土主张，美国提出的对抗中国主张在道义上就不太能站得住脚了。
Some American strategists take comfort from Mr Duterte’s obvious eccentricity.
令一些美国战略家欣慰的是，杜特尔特明显行为古怪。
They argue that, in the long run, the Philippines will rediscover its strategic interest in seeking the protection of Uncle Sam.
他们辩称，长期而言，菲律宾将会再次发现，寻求山姆大叔的保护符合其战略利益。
But it is also possible that Mr Duterte, for all his wild man antics, is actually part of a larger trend in Southeast Asia.
但还有一种可能是，尽管杜特尔特狂妄而古怪，但他的行为实际上可能符合东南亚的一种更广泛的趋势。
Next year, the Philippines will lead the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
菲律宾明年将领导东盟(ASEAN)。
And this will happen just as two other important US allies in the region — Thailand and Malaysia — have begun to tilt towards China.
而美国在该地区的另两个重要盟友泰国和马来西亚开始表现出亲华倾向。
The military coup in Thailand in 2014 led to a downturn in relations between Bangkok and Washington, as the Americans called for a swift return to democracy and the Thai generals resisted.
泰国2014年的军事政变导致曼谷和华盛顿之间的关系恶化，因为美国人呼吁泰国迅速恢复民主体制，而泰国的将军们坚决反对。
In 2015, Thailand announced the purchase of Chinese submarines.
2015年，泰国宣布购买中国潜艇。
Najib Razak, the prime minister of Malaysia, has also looked to Beijing for succour as he has attempted to fend off corruption investigations in the west.
马来西亚总理纳吉布.拉扎克(Najib Razak)也寻求北京方面的帮助，他在努力应对西方对其展开的腐败调查。
Faced with all these setbacks in Southeast Asia, the US will be on the lookout for some new diplomatic and strategic opportunities.
由于在东南亚面临这些挫折，美国将会寻找新的外交和战略机遇。
One country that seems certain to continue to push back against Chinese dominance of the region is Vietnam.
越南看起来肯定会继续反对中国在亚太地区占据主导地位。
This month, the USS Frank Cable and the USS John S McCain became the first two American warships to visit the Vietnamese naval base of Cam Ranh Bay since the end of the Vietnam war in 1975.
本月，弗兰克.凯布尔号(USS Frank Cable)和约翰.S.麦凯恩号(USS John SMcCain)停靠越南金兰湾(Cam Ranh Bay)海军基地，这是自1975年越南战争结束以来首次访问该基地的两艘美国军舰。
At the height of that war, Cam Ranh Bay served as a crucial base for both the US Navy and Air Force in the fight against North Vietnam.
在越战打得最激烈的时期，金兰湾成为美国海军和空军打击北越的关键基地。
It is a historic irony, and a sign of how the rise of China is changing Asia, that Vietnam could yet invite the US military back to Cam Ranh Bay — this time as an ally, not an enemy.
越南邀请美国军方重回金兰湾——这次是作为盟友而非敌人——具有历史讽刺意义，也表明了中国崛起是如何改变亚洲的。
