英国若取消欣克利角核电站项目未必是坏事

The wedding has been called off. The marquee had been put up, the champagne was laid out, some of the guests had flown in — but then, at the very last minute, the unhappy couple decided that they could not live together after all.

婚礼取消了。大帐篷已搭好，香槟已摆好，有些宾客已入场——但接着，就在最后一刻，这对不开心的人决定，他们终究不能生活在一起。

That summarises all too accurately what happened last week as the board of the French power utility EDF approved, albeit by a very thin majority, an ￡18bn investment in the long-delayed nuclear plant at Hinkley Point, only to find it had been abandoned at the altar. Two hours after the EDF announcement, the UK government decided to hold another review of the plan, knowing full well that a full scale celebration had been planned for the following day.

这十分准确地概括了上周发生的事情。当法国电力(EDF)董事会批准了（尽管是以微弱的多数票）针对拖延已久的欣克利角(Hinkley Point)核电站项目的一笔180亿英镑投资，最后却发现自己在圣坛上被抛弃了。在EDF宣布批准该项投资两小时之后，英国政府决定对项目启动再次审查，尽管其非常清楚，各方已准备在第二天举行全面庆祝活动。

What happens now? It is hard to see how the wedding can be rearranged. There can be only be two reasons for the review. First, the government is unhappy with the price that had been provisionally agreed. Second, that a new administration in Downing Street dislikes the idea that the Chinese as investors in the Hinkley project should be given the right to operate their own nuclear station at Bradwell in Essex.

眼下发生了什么？我们很难看出，婚礼如何才能被重新安排。审核仅仅可能出于两个原因。第一，英国政府对暂定的价格不满意。第二，唐宁街(Downing Street)新政府不喜欢如下观点：作为欣克利角核电站的投资者，中国人应该被授权在埃塞克斯郡(Essex)的布拉德韦尔(Bradwell)运营自己的核电站。

The government has good reason to be unhappy on both counts. The problem is that changing the terms on either could pose a mortal threat to the project. If the EDF board was nervous at the viability of a deal based on a price of ￡92.50 for each megawatt hour of electricity produced, it is hardly likely to warm to anything less. The majority vote of 10 to 7 in favour could easily be reversed.

英国政府有充分理由对这两个方面都感到不满意。问题在于，改变任何一个方面的条款都可能对项目造成致命威胁。如果EDF董事会对一项电力生产价格为每兆瓦时92.5英镑的协议的生存能力感到担心，那么它几乎不可能对更低价格产生兴趣。10比7的多数支持意见可能会被轻易逆转。

It is hard to find many people within EDF who really believe in the project. The company has huge problems and does not need another. Unsurprisingly, EDF’s share price rose by 10 per cent within minutes once the prospect that Hinkley might not proceed became -evident.

在EDF内部，找不到很多真心相信欣克利角项目的人。这家公司存在很多艰巨问题，不需要再增加一个。意料中的是，在欣克利角项目或许不能推进的前景变明朗之后，EDF股价在几分钟之内上涨了10%。

Equally it is hard to see who will step into fund the project if the Chinese are not given exactly what they want.

同样，我们很难看到，如果中国人得不到他们想要的，谁将介入进来为欣克利角项目提供资金。

What next? For EDF, the humiliation of a cancelled wedding will be followed by a retreat into its French heartland to sort out a host of outstanding problems, from the failure to construct the nuclear plants at Flamanville in northern France and Olkiluoto in Finland to the forced takeover of Areva, France’s other main nuclear business.

接下来怎么办？对EDF而言，在遭受婚礼取消的羞辱之后，该公司将回撤到法国腹地，去解决一堆悬而未决的问题——从未能在法国北部的弗拉芒维尔(Flamanville)和芬兰的奥尔基洛托(Olkiluoto)建设核电站，到被迫接管法国另一家主要核电企业阿海珐(Areva)。

Some in the company may want to sell off EDF’s existing assets in the UK, including the marginal retail business and the fleet of ageing nuclear stations dating back to the 1970s that are due to be retired over the next decade. The challenge will be to find a buyer.

EDF公司内部有些人或许想廉价出售位于英国的既有资产，包括无足轻重的零售业务，以及可追溯到1970年代、日益老化的核电站。这些核电站将在未来十年内退役。挑战将是为它们找到一个买家。

For the UK government, it is essential to ensure the electricity that Hinkley was supposed to provide can be replaced from other sources. This is not impossible, but will require a degree of planning not evident in UK energy policy in recent years.

对于英国政府来说，重要的是确保原本应该由欣克利角核电站供应的电力可以通过其他方式补上。这并不是不可能，但是需要一定的规划，而近年来英国能源政策在这方面并不清晰。

There are potentially lower-cost nuclear providers whose projects can now be accelerated. Money, rather than technology, is the biggest challenge. If the government wants new nuclear as part of the energy mix, there is a strong case for using itshe UK Government’s own credit rather than relying on costly private financial options. Thirty-year money is readily available at very attractive rates to the right borrower.

有一些成本可能更低的核供应商，它们的项目如今可以加速推进了。最大的挑战是资金，而不是技术。如果政府希望把新核能作为能源结构的一部分，它有强有力的理由利用自己的信贷，而非依靠成本高昂的私人融资方案。对于这个借款人来说，30年期的借贷触手可得，且利率非常有吸引力。

An alternative source of power is natural gas, which is plentiful and cheap. Secure long-term supplies could be signed up quickly and could also be used to back out coal close down coal-fired power stations more quickly than planned. New gas-fired power stations will be needed and the key step is the establishment of a viable set of “capacity payments” to ensure the investment is made.

一种可替代能源来源是天然气，储量丰富且价格低廉。有保障的长期供应可以很快签约，也可以被用来推动燃煤发电厂比计划中更快关闭。英国需要新的天然气发电厂，关键一步是建立一套可行的“容量电价”方案来确保获得投资。

Then there is energy efficiency. Demand for energy has fallen by more than 15 per cent in the UK over the past decade, but much more is possible using existing technology. Cutting another 15 per cent would cover a large part of the gap left by Hinkley. Energy efficiency has long been the neglected Cinderella of British energy policy and the UK has a lot to learn from other countries whose record in this area is stronger.

接下来是能源效率的问题。过去十年，英国对能源的需求下滑了15%以上，但是利用现有技术的话可能让需求下滑得更多。需求再减少15%，将弥补因欣克利角核电站停建造成的一大部分电力缺口。长期以来，能源效率一直是英国能源政策中不受重视的一个方面，英国有很多地方需要从其他在这方面更强的国家学习。

Finally, the scope for using renewables such as wind and solar is growing. Costs are falling, as is the need for subsidies. The scale of supply from renewables cannot yet match the amount of power from a large-scale nuclear plant but continued advances in technology are opening up significant new possibilities. Increasing the use of renewables should be matched by a directed programme of research and development into the most attractive possibilities, including energy storage.

最后一点，风力和太阳能等可再生能源的利用空间在不断扩大。成本在下降，补贴需求也在下滑。目前可再生能源提供的供电规模还无法企及大型核电站的发电量，但是技术上的不断改进正在开启重要的新可能。在加大利用可再生能源的同时，应针对最具吸引力的可能性（包括能源储存）配套制定一个有指导的研发计划。

An unconsummated wedding is an embarrassment — a costly exercise that leaves a bad taste. But sometimes it represents the right choice. Life goes on. And with time and reflection, the pain of taking the difficult decision to halt what had seemed inevitable can turn to relief.

未完成的婚礼令人尴尬——仪式成本昂贵，体验却十分糟糕。但是，这有时代表着正确的选择。生活还要继续。随着时间推移，人们反思后会发现，做出艰难决定、叫停似乎是不可避免的事情，这种痛苦可能会变成解脱。