金正恩的体重问题和情报通报的陷阱
BBC News – After South Korea's spy agency briefed politicians about North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's rapid weight gain, prompting speculation he suffered from paranoia-induced insomnia.
BBC新闻 – 韩国情报机关向政界人士通报金正恩体重快速增长后，引发外界猜测他患上了妄想症诱发的失眠。
Around the world, a briefing given by the South Korean National Intelligence Service is generating coverage. North Korea's leader has, we are told, gained an enormous amount of weight. He can't sleep. He fears for his life.
在世界各地，韩国国家情报院发布的简报引发媒体纷纷报道。我们被告知，朝鲜领导人变得巨胖。他无法入睡。他担心生命安全。
But how reliable are these briefings, which the South Korean spy agency gives the country's politicians? The truth is that their methods, like those of spies everywhere, are part hard information and part conjecture.
但韩国情报机关给政界人士的这些通报有多可靠? 事实是,他们的办法，就像各地间谍的那些办法一样，部分是硬信息，部分是推测。
In the current case, concluding that the Supreme Leader has put on weight is easier. The pictures in North Korean media show the pounds which can't be photoshopped off. According to the National Intelligence Service, he was 90kg in 2012 but now weighs 130kg.
在当前情况下，得出结论说最高领袖增重了比较容易。朝鲜媒体的照片显示了不可能被PS掉的体重。根据韩国国家情报院，他2012年时体重90公斤，现在则是130公斤。
Similarly, two years ago, Kim Jong-un was shown limping on North Korean state television, and then, three months later, hobbling with the aid of a walking stick. You don't need to be James Bond to conclude that there was something wrong with at least one of his legs. The surmising was that he was suffering from gout, an illness associated with over-indulgence, though there are other causes too.
同样，两年前，金正恩出现在朝鲜国家电视台时一瘸一拐，然后，三个月后，又见他借助拐杖蹒跚而行。不必是詹姆士邦德也能得出结论，他的腿至少有一条出了问题。猜测是，他患有痛风 – 与过度放纵有关的一种疾病，虽然也有其它原因。
But seeing the obvious in the photographs is easy. Drawing the right conclusions is harder.
但看到照片中显而易见的事实易。得出正确结论难。
This kind of information usually emerges when the NIS briefs South Korea's parliamentary intelligence committee in private. This briefing to politicians then gets passed on to journalists and the information ends up in the newspapers. There is obviously plenty of room for error and distortion in this process. How much spin is put on the bald facts is unclear.
这种信息通常是国家情报院向韩国议会情报委员会私下通报时才出现的。对政界人士的汇报随后转达给记者，信息最终出现在报纸上。这个过程中显然有着足够的空间产生错误和曲解。对枯燥的事实作了多少添油加醋的渲染不得而知。
More importantly, even if Kim Jong-un is unhealthy that certainly doesn't mean his reign is going to end soon.
更重要的是，即使金正恩健康不佳，那也肯定不意味着他的统治行将终结。
