中国煤矿工业衰落 大幅裁员的隐忧

HEGANG, China — In the dank shower room where the miners soak, the coal dust from their bodies staining the water chocolate, a lone worker sat smoking a cigarette, staring at the floor.

中国鹤岗——在阴冷潮湿的淋浴室内，矿工们身体上洗下的煤灰把水染成了巧克力色，一名工人一个人坐着抽烟，眼睛盯着地上。

He lingered, he explained, because since his pay had been cut in half, he had been eating dinner at his parents’ apartment, and he dreaded the humiliation of going there again.

他说想多待会，因为自从工资被减半，他就一直在父母家吃晚饭，每次去都觉得丢人，不想再过去。

“If any of the leaders would do their job properly, the situation would not be like this,” said the worker, Mr. Guo, 39. “If they want to sack me, they should just do it. Can it get any worse?”

“要是有任何一个领导把自己的工作做好，情况就不会是这样，”这名姓郭的39岁工人说。“如果他们想开除我，就开除好了。还能比现在更坏？”

It probably will.

可能真的会更糟。

The mine’s owner, the Longmay Group, the biggest coal company in northeastern China, announced in September that it planned to lay off 100,000 workers. The elimination of about 40 percent of the work force at 42 mines in four cities is the biggest reduction in jobs that anyone could recall in this steadily declining rust belt near the Russian border.

这个矿场的所有者龙煤集团是中国东北部最大的煤矿公司。它在9月宣布，计划裁掉10万名员工。在位于四个城市的42座煤矿削减40%的劳动力，是这片靠近俄罗斯边境、正在逐渐衰落的“铁锈地带”最大规模的一次裁员。

China has managed mass layoffs at creaky, state-owned businesses like Longmay before, averting the threat of strikes and unrest by suppressing protests and offering payouts and job training.

中国一直对龙煤这样的老旧国企的大规模裁员进行管控，通过压制抗议行动、提供补偿金和工作培训，避免出现罢工和骚乱的局面。

But that was when the economy was booming and could readily absorb displaced workers. The test the government now faces in this depressed coal town and in other hard-hit areas across the country is whether it can head off labor discontent in a slowing economy.

不过，那是在中国经济蒸蒸日上的时期，比较容易对下岗工人进行安置。现如今，在这个萧条的煤矿城镇和全国其他一些遭受沉重打击的地区，中国政府面临的考验，是能否在经济放缓之际妥善处理劳工的不满情绪。

Longmay has so far delayed the bulk of the layoffs, cutting only several hundred older workers who held nonessential jobs. Last month, the government of Heilongjiang Province, which owns Longmay, announced a $600 million bailout that would help the company repay its bonds. But analysts see the infusion as short-term relief that will not prevent the inevitable reckoning.

龙煤集团目前推迟了大部分裁员计划，只裁掉了几百名年纪比较大、职位不重要的工人。上个月，龙煤集团所有者黑龙江省政府宣布，提供38亿元人民币资金，帮助公司偿还债券。但多名分析师表示，这类援助只能在短期内缓解问题，无法避免最终的命运。

The coal industry is hurting nationwide, as coal prices have fallen nearly 60 percent since 2011, said Deng Shun, an analyst at ICIS C1 Energy, a consultancy based in Shanghai. And Longmay, he said, produces far less coal with extra workers than newer, more efficient companies.

位于上海的咨询公司安迅思息旺能源(ICIS C1 Energy)的分析师邓舜表示，自2011年至今，煤炭价格下降了近60%，全国整个煤炭工业都不好过。他表示，相比于效率更高、更新的煤矿公司，龙煤集团员工更多，但产煤量却比前者少得多。

“They are quite worried about social unrest, so they delay,” he said. “These layoffs should have happened two years ago.”

“他们非常担心出现社会动荡，所以就往后延，”他说。“这些裁员两年前就该进行了。”

Still, there have already been flashes of discontent.

但是，不满情绪已经开始露头。

In April, even before the layoffs were announced, thousands marched on the streets of Hegang, a city of about one million, to protest delayed salaries. The organizers were arrested and jailed.

今年4月，龙煤集团还没有公布裁员计划的时候，就有数千人在人口约百万的鹤岗的街头游行，抗议拖欠工资。这次活动的组织者被带走关了起来。

In October, company management stifled a protest by locking workers in the mines. The police patrolled the streets outside the company headquarters on the day the rally was planned.

到了10月份，企业管理层把工人堵在矿区，以阻止他们举行抗议活动。在他们计划进行集会行动那天，警方还在公司总部外的街道上进行巡逻。

A few weeks later, Internet regulators exposed a group of workers discussing a demonstration on an online bulletin board. They were hauled to a police station, fingerprinted and warned that jail sentences would follow if they dared do it again.

几周后，互联网监管机构曝光了一群工人，表示他们曾在网络论坛上商讨举行示威活动。他们被带到派出所，取了指纹，并被警告，如果敢再这么做，就会被判刑。

“We are all on edge, the company is on edge,” Mr. Chen, 27, an organizer of that abortive protest, said over breakfast at a nearly empty restaurant, washing it down with a couple of beers at the end of his night shift. “We don’t know what is going to happen. It all depends on how the company takes care of the laid-off workers.”

“我们紧张，公司更紧张，”27岁的小陈在一家几乎空无一人的餐馆一边吃早餐一边说。他是这次夭折的抗议活动的组织者之一。此时，他刚结束晚班工作，就着几杯啤酒吃完了自己的早餐。“我们不知道以后会发生什么。完全要看公司怎么安排下岗工人。”

Like other miners here, he spoke to a foreign reporter on the condition that he be identified only by his surname for fear of reprisal.

和这里其他矿工一样，他在接受外国记者采访时要求只用姓来指代自己，以免遭到报复。

Of greater concern to the government, Hegang is not the only place where tensions with workers are increasing. The number of strikes and labor protests nationwide nearly doubled in the first 11 months of this year, to 2,354, compared with 1,207 in the same period last year, according to China Labor Bulletin, a monitoring group based in Hong Kong. The organization said strikes and worker protests hit a record high of 301 incidents last month.

让中国政府更加担忧的是，鹤岗不是唯一一个政府与劳工的关系日益紧张的地方。据位于香港的观察机构中国劳工通讯(China Labor Bulletin)统计，今年前11个月，中国共有2354次罢工和劳工抗议活动，相比于去年同期的1207次，几乎翻了一倍。该组织还表示，上个月中国出现了301次此类事件，达到了历史新高。

The reaction of the demoralized workers is being watched closely because the staying power of the Communist Party has been immutably linked to its ability to deliver continued economic progress. The unwritten social compact here is that the party delivers growth, jobs and higher living standards, and in exchange, the workers acquiesce to its monopoly on power, surrendering the right to organize unions or protest.

沮丧的工人们的反应受到了密切关注，因为中国共产党的权力能否持久，总是和它能否持续带来经济增长相关联。这里有一个不成文的社会契约，即党带来经济增长、工作机会和更高的生活水平，作为交换，劳工们默许其独揽大权，放弃组织工会或进行抗议的权利。

That bargain could unravel if workers no longer believe the government is living up to its end.

如果工人认为政府无法兑现它的承诺，这种约定就有可能解除。

The outward signs of severe economic trouble are evident. For-sale signs hang on the facades of restaurants that draw few customers. Robberies are on the rise: manhole covers and cellphones are popular targets. Women say they have stopped wearing jewelry for fear of being assaulted.

严重经济困境的外在迹象颇为明显。顾客寥寥的餐馆正面挂着转让的牌子。抢劫案件增加：井盖和手机是常见的目标。女性表示因为害怕被抢而不再戴珠宝。

Heilongjiang is one of the most depressed provinces in China, and has been for years. Its economic output fell 2.2 percent in the first three quarters of this year compared with the same period last year, without adjusting for inflation, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

黑龙江是中国经济最不景气的省份之一，并且这种情况已经持续了多年。从国家统计局的数据来看，今年前三季度，该省未扣除通胀因素的经济产出同比下降2.2%。

“What you have now is a very, very severe economic situation in one part of the country,” said Andrew Batson, China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics in Beijing. “It is very striking and very unusual.”

“现在我们看到的，是中国的一部分地区经济形势非常非常严峻，”北京龙洲经讯(GaveKal Dragonomics)中国问题研究总监白安儒(Andrew Batson)说。“这种情况非常惊人，非常不寻常。”

Still, the state-owned mines have been reluctant to cut production because there is little other work here. The first round of layoffs at Longmay, though relatively small, came soon after the September announcement.

然而，国有煤矿不愿减产，因为这里几乎没有其他工作。9月发出通知后不久，龙煤就进行了第一轮裁员，不过规模相对较小。

Older workers in their late 50s were called to an office on the second floor of a disused building. Two young clerks barked orders at men. They were told to sign two-page contracts that pledged a small monthly stipend and vague promises of retraining.

快60岁的员工被叫至一栋废弃建筑二楼的办公室。两名年轻的工作人员厉声向他们下达命令。他们被要求签署一份两页纸的合同。合同承诺每月向他们发放一小笔补贴，并含糊地承诺将为其提供再培训。

Mr. Hui, 55, was one of the first. “It was 7 o’clock in the morning,” he recalled. “Our captain came to our changing room after meeting with the leaders. He said: ‘Here is bad news for you guys.’ Then he said, ‘Hui, you are one of those who are above the age limit.’”

55岁的老会便是第一批被裁的员工之一。“当时是早上7点，”他回忆说。“和领导开完会以后，队长来到我们更衣室。他说：‘伙计们，坏消息来了。’接着他又说，‘老会，你属于年龄超标的。’”

Mr. Hui said he was crushed. He had worked as a firefighter at the mine for 35 years and expected a pension. He had not been told how much severance pay he would get, he said.

老会说他很伤心。他在矿上当了35年的消防员，本指望着领退休金。他说，没人告诉他会拿到多少离职补偿。

Although his wife, son and daughter-in-law had jobs, he could not make ends meet. “I have been paying the mortgage of my son, and the day-to-day expenditures for our grandson,” he said. “I’m short of cash. I have to work. What else can I do? I want to give my grandson the best education so he can leave this place. There is no future in coal.”

尽管妻子、儿子和儿媳都有工作，他还是入不敷出。“我一直在给儿子还房贷，还有负责孙子的日常花销，”他说。“缺钱，必须得工作。我还能怎么办？我想让孙子接受最好的教育，这样才能离开这个地方。煤炭没有前途。”

The management of the Longmay Group declined to be interviewed. In response to a request to its headquarters in Harbin, the company said, “We are busy planning the reform of the company, and we are not ready to give information to the public.”

龙煤集团的管理层拒绝接受采访。记者向其设在哈尔滨的总部提出了采访请求，对方回复称，“我们正忙于规划公司改革，尚未做好向外公布消息的准备。”

As the region’s population has dwindled in the last decade, the younger people who stayed say they feel trapped. They have few skills to offer to factories in southern China, which in any case no longer hire like they used to. And they are boxed in, they say, by family traditions that expect men to work in the mines.

过去十年里，随着该地区人口减少，留下来的年轻人说觉得自己被困住了。他们几乎没有可以进入南方工厂的技能，何况那些工厂也不再像过去那样招聘了。他们说自己被希望男的都去矿上工作的家庭传统束缚住了。

A 29-year-old mechanic, who declined to be identified, said he loved his job working with precision instruments in one of the mine’s workshops. He had tried to get a job in the port town of Dalian, but his parents forbade him to move, he said.

一名29岁的机修工说，他喜欢在矿上的车间里和精密仪器打交道的工作。拒绝公开姓名的他表示，自己之前曾尝试在港口城市大连找工作，但父母不允许他去。

Blinking back tears, he said he depended on his fiancée, who earned a handsome salary as a video editor, and his father, who made more money than he did driving a truck.

他忍着眼泪说，现在自己要靠未婚妻和父亲。他的未婚妻是一名视频编辑，收入不菲。他父亲靠开卡车也比他挣得多。

“Most who are still here are like me, they don’t have a way out,” he said. “If the company would pay our salaries on time and in full, the workers would love to work.”

“还留在这里的大部分人都像我一样，没有出路，”他说。“如果公司按时全额发放工资，工人是很愿意干活的。”

One employee, Mr. Cui, 40, a driver, said he had quit rather than wait to be laid off. He hopes to secure a taxi license to augment his severance of $104 a month, which he says is not enough to get by on, much less pay back the $6,000 he borrowed for his wife’s medical bills.

40岁的老崔是一名司机。他说自己不愿等着被裁员，于是主动辞职了。他希望能拿到出租车牌照，以便补贴每个月104美元的离职补偿。他说补偿金还不够过日子用的，更别说还给妻子看病欠下的6000美元医药费了。

When the full brunt of the layoffs comes, the violence could be terrible, he predicted. Since the last economic crisis, in the 1990s, a conspicuous new group had appeared: the owners of recently privatized small mines who drove around in Mercedes-Benzes.

他预测等裁员到了最厉害的时候，会有可怕的暴力事件。90年代的上一次经济危机之后，出现了一个惹眼的新群体：被私有化不久的小煤矿的老板。他们开着梅赛德斯-奔驰四处招摇。

“In the 90s, everyone was poor,” he said. “Now the rich are too rich, and the poor are too poor. Because of the layoffs everyone is worried. No one has a way to live outside the mines. With the New Year holidays coming, there will be chaos in Hegang.”

“90年代，大家都穷，”他说。“现在富的太富，穷的太穷。因为裁人，大家都提心吊胆。没人有在除了煤矿以外的地方谋生的路子。马上过年了，鹤岗肯定要乱。”