新兴市场国家面临信贷隐忧

China's latest interest rate cut shows Beijing's willingness to contribute to global efforts to ease credit in response to the slowdown induced by the eurozone crisis–just as it did four years ago after Lehman Brothers collapsed. Unfortunately, its results are unlikely to have the same impact as in 2008-9.

中国昨日降息表明，中国政府愿与国际社会共同努力放松信贷，以应对欧元区危机导致的全球经济增长放缓——这与四年前雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭后中国政府采取的举措如出一辙。不幸的是，此次行动很难得到与2008年至2009年时一样的效果。

The wave of credit released then by China and other emerging economies washed around the globe, boosting demand for Chilean copper, German cars, and luxury property from Hong Kong to Rio de Janeiro.

2008年中国与其他新兴经济体释放的信贷在全球范围内流动，刺激了对智利铜矿、德国汽车以及从香港到里约热内卢的豪华物业的需求。

Now the world can no longer count on emerging markets to deliver the same. Many have less room for financial manoeuvre owing to the after-effects of the post-2008 easing, including higher levels of credit, fears of real estate bubbles and bad loans, and a legacy of unprofitable boom-time investments.

现如今世界不能再继续寄望由新兴经济体扭转形势。2008年以后的信贷宽松带来一系列后续影响，包括信贷水平高企，人们担忧房地产泡沫和不良贷款问题，以及经济过热期的投资项目盈利能力不足等，受此影响，很多新兴市场国家的货币政策操作空间缩小。

Furthermore, even if governments do release more money, it will have less impact now because good investment projects are harder to find.

此外，即使各国政府扩大流动性投放，所产生的政策效果也将小于2008年，因为优质投资项目更加难以寻觅。

As David Lubin, head of emerging markets economics at Citigroup, the US bank, says of China: "A side effect of [its] investment push is that investment efficiency collapsed. As a result, it now takes more investment to generate an extra unit of GDP. In the same way, it also requires more credit."

花旗集团(Citigroup)新兴市场首席经济学家戴维•卢宾(David Lubin)评价中国称："中国加速推动投资的副作用之一是投资效率显著下滑，受此影响，现在需要较以往更多的投资才能产生一单位GDP。也正因如此，中国需要更大规模的信贷投放。"

China leads the list of emerging-world governments to expand public sector borrowing. Sovereign debt rose from 20 per cent of gross domestic product in 2007 to 26 per cent last year, fuelling a domestic infrastructure boom and increased demand for commodities. Poland also opened the taps, with its debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 45 per cent to 56 per cent.

中国公共部门的债务规模增速在新兴经济体中位居前列。中国主权债务与GDP之比由2007年的20%升至2011年的26%，受此推动，国内基础设施建设迎来热潮，对大宗商品的需求也上升。波兰同样采取了开闸放水政策，其公共部门债务与GDP之比由2007年的45%升至2011年的56%。

Other governments that went into the crisis with already-high public debt, such as Brazil and India, were more cautious. However, the true credit boom in the developing world has been private rather than public debt, fuelled by low interest rates and willing lenders.

巴西、印度等国在2008年金融危机爆发前的公共债务规模已然较大，因此其政府对进一步举债更加谨慎。但受利率水平较低和贷款人意愿较强影响，发展中国家的信贷激增主要发生在私人部门而非公共部门。

In China, private sector credit has risen from 107 per cent of GDP in 2007 to 127 per cent last year, according to Capital Economics, a consultancy. In Brazil, Turkey and Poland, private sector credit has meanwhile risen by as much as 20 percentage points of GDP.

咨询公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)提供的数据显示，中国私人部门贷款与GDP之比由2007年的107%升至2011年的127%。而同期巴西、土耳其、波兰等国的私人部门贷款与GDP之比也上升了20个百分点。

Countries with slower credit growth are the exceptions. South Korea, for example, has held back because of an earlier painful credit boom, and India because of high interest rates induced by persistently high inflation.

贷款规模增长较慢的国家属于例外。例如韩国是由于受到较早一次放松信贷的痛苦后遗症影响，而印度则是由于持续高通胀导致利率水平高企。

Elsewhere, though, the credit surge is in full flow. The latest data show private credit grew in April at annualised rates of 20 per cent or more in Colombia, Indonesia, Turkey and Russia.

其他国家则普遍存在信贷规模激增现象。最新数据显示，哥伦比亚、印度尼西亚、土耳其和俄罗斯等国4月份私人部门贷款年化增速都已达到或超过20%。

Although these countries are relative latecomers to the credit binge, Brazil has been partying from the start. Private credit is still growing 23 per cent a year, even though borrowers are now struggling, as seen in rising delinquent car loans.

上述这些国家加入信贷狂欢相对较晚，巴西则从一开始便加入了狂欢。目前巴西的私人贷款规模仍以每年23%的速度增长，尽管借款人已经出现偿还困难，比如汽车贷款不良率就已呈上升趋势。

Credit growth can be a boon, especially in the emerging world: It speeds development by allowing governments to build infrastructure, companies to construct factories and families to buy homes and durable goods.

信贷增长可以是件好事，尤其对新兴经济体而言：信贷增长使政府得以扩大基础设施建设，企业得以建造厂房，家庭得以购买房产及耐用品，从而加速整体经济发展。

"I do believe that rapid expansion of credit plays a big part in the rise of the emerging world's middle classes," says Arjun Divecha, chairman of US fund manager GMO.

美国基金管理公司GMO董事长阿尔琼•戴维查(Arjun Divecha)表示："我认为信贷规模快速扩张对于新兴市场国家中产阶级的崛起发挥了重要作用。"

But credit growth rates matter. Rapid rises are often linked to lax controls and property speculation, which can lead to bad debts and unproductive investments.

但信贷扩张速度同样具有重要影响。信贷规模快速增长通常与监管松懈以及房地产投机有关，而这可能带来不良贷款，并导致投资回报率低下。

In China, for example, total credit expanded by almost half of GDP in 2009, and again in 2010. Now, some economists say, it may have maxed out.

以中国为例，2009年信贷增量几乎为当年GDP的二分之一，并且2010年同样如此。部分经济学家认为，中国的信贷规模现已由峰值回落。