新兴市场难逃美联储影响

Investors are increasingly disillusioned with extreme monetary policies, the pace of economic growth and the performance of equities in developed markets.

投资者越来越对发达市场的极端货币政策、经济增长速度和股市表现感到失望。

In virtually every country where central banks have moved interest rates into negative territory, equities have suffered.

在央行推行负利率的几乎所有国家里，股市都表现不佳。

The most dramatic example is Japan’s Topix index, which is down over 15 per cent this year.

最引人注目的例子是日本的东证指数(Topix)，该指数今年以来下跌逾15%。

At the same time, cheap funding is not enticing companies in developed economies to invest.

与此同时，廉价资金并没有吸引发达经济体的企业投资。

Capex in developed economies is currently contracting at an estimated 3 per cent rate, according to data from JPMorgan.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)的数据显示，发达经济体的资本性支出目前以大约3%的速度收缩。

Emerging markets have, of late, performed better on a relative basis — both measured by economic growth and asset prices.

无论是从经济增长还是从资产价格衡量，新兴市场最近的表现都相对好一些。

EM shares have registered a far more respectable showing than developed markets.

新兴市场股市的表现比发达市场好得多。

Indeed, so far this year, EM bonds and equities are four of the top six performers globally.

实际上，今年迄今为止，新兴市场的债券和股票在全球6大最佳表现者中占据了4席。

There is concern that the recent gains are merely the product of central bank largesse in several developed economies.

人们担心，最近的上涨只是数个发达经济体央行大手笔宽松政策的结果。

Indeed, the best performance has come from some of the hardest hit markets — Brazil and Russia among them.

实际上，包括巴西和俄罗斯在内的一些之前遭受冲击最严重的市场表现最佳。

The Turkish lira, for example, dropped over 7 per cent in the wake of the attempted coup but has since recovered more than half those losses.

例如，土耳其里拉在未遂政变之后下跌逾7%，但此后收复了逾一半的跌幅。

Both the recent data and the outlook for economic prospects in emerging markets for the next few months look attractive, especially in east Asia.

新兴市场无论是最近的数据还是未来几个月的经济前景展望看起来都颇具吸引力，尤其是东亚。

For decades, manufacturing for export has been the lifeblood of east Asia.

几十年来，制造业出口一直是东亚的生命线。

Now, the great exporters of that region are in a sweet spot again, having achieved an improvement in both industrial production and the level of their exports.

如今，该地区的大型出口国再次处于有利地位，无论是工业生产还是出口规模全都出现提升。

Business spending in emerging markets is tracking a 7.5 per cent gain, after a big drop in the first quarter, and despite higher interest rates in that part of the world.

新兴市场的企业支出在第一季度大幅下降之后，录得7.5%的增幅，尽管该地区利率更高。

Production in east Asia has increasingly come to mean technology.

东亚生产活动的科技含量越来越高。

Regional tech output was up 7 per cent the three months to July from a year earlier.

在截至今年7月的3个月里，该地区的科技产值同比增长7%。

Taiwan’s exports registered growth of more than 5 per cent in July, much stronger than forecast.

台湾出口今年7月录得逾5%的增长，远超预期。

Most economists expect tech to be one of the few real sources of growth in China in coming months.

大多数经济学家预计，科技是未来几个月中国少数几个真实增长源泉之一。

But how lasting will the pick-up prove to be, especially in a world where developed markets have had no growth in business spending? Is consumer spending in the big developed markets, especially the US, a sufficient catalyst for a lasting increase in activity for east Asian manufacturing?

但这种回暖将会持续多久，尤其是在一个发达市场企业支出没有任何增长的世界里？大型发达市场（尤其是美国）的消费者支出足以催化东亚制造业活动持续增长吗？

Economists such as Sin Beng Ong, regional economist for JPMorgan in Singapore, fear the lift from tech in east Asia will prove temporary.

摩根大通驻新加坡的地区经济学家Sin Beng Ong等经济学家担心，事实将会证明科技给东亚经济带来的提升将是暂时的。

Developed market capex drove Asia.

他说：发达市场的资本性支出推动了亚洲的增长。

The tech cycle in Asia mirrors the weakness in capex in developed markets, he says.

亚洲的科技周期映射出发达市场资本性支出的疲弱。

The productivity gains from investing in tech have gone down.

投资科技获得的生产率改善已经下降。

There will be a periodic increase in activity but then it will die down; you will see fluctuations around a flattish line-not an ascending line, as was the case prior to the 2008 financial crisis.

制造业活动将会间歇性增长，但随后就会减弱；你将会看到围绕一条平直线、而非上行线的波动，就像2008年金融危机之前那样。

Moreover, apart from technology, production in the region generally remains stagnant.

此外，除了科技业以外，该地区的生产活动依然普遍停滞不前。

And despite the bright spot in technology in east Asia, the region remains vulnerable to any shifts in monetary policy in developed economies.

尽管东亚科技业存在亮点，但该地区依然容易遭受发达经济体货币政策变化的影响。

Economic fundamentals matter less everywhere in a world in which central bankers in developed economies adopt what used to be considered extreme monetary policies in an effort to devalue their own currencies and stoke inflationary fires.

在一个发达经济体央行推行曾被视为极端的货币政策以使本币贬值并刺激通胀的世界里，经济基本面在哪里都没那么重要。

Who could blame their counterparts in emerging markets should they seek to ease their own cost of money.

如果新兴市场央行寻求缓解自己的资金成本，谁又能去责备他们。

The Fed has always believed that rate increases and normalisation were around the corner but never been able to deliver, Larry Summers noted in a blog following the symposium of central bankers late last week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

在上周晚些时候在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)举行的全球央行年度研讨会之后，拉里•萨默斯(Larry Summers)发表博客文章指出：美联储始终认为，加息和政策正常化就在眼前，但从未能够实现。

When the Fed predicted last December that it would raise rates four times in 2016, market participants saw a disconnect from reality.

当美联储去年12月预计将在2016年4次加息的时候，市场人士认为这与现实脱节。

Still, if the Fed ever does lift rates again, however incrementally, east Asia is still vulnerable to a repeat of the taper tantrum of three years ago that unfolded after Ben Bernanke, the then-Fed chairman, signalled that the US central bank would scale back its quantitative easing.

然而，如果美联储真的再次加息，无论幅度多么小，东亚仍容易受3年前的削减恐慌(taper tantrum)重现的影响。当时时任美联储主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)暗示称，美联储将会缩减其量化宽松规模，引发削减恐慌。

Whatever the fundamentals, this is a world in which the monetary policy in developed economies still holds dangerous sway.

无论基本面如何，这是一个发达经济体货币政策仍掌握着危险影响力的世界。